Editor’s note: The transcript of this interview has been edited for clarity.
Latvia has been one of Ukraine's staunchest supporters since the start of the all-out war. Sharing a border with both Russia and its ally Belarus, the small Baltic country understands Ukraine’s struggle all too well.
As well as committing to providing military support at the level of 0.25% of GDP every year, the country is also the leader of the drone coalition, an allied initiative established to supply Ukrainian forces with a much-needed capability.
On Aug. 23, the Kyiv Independent sat down with Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds and asked him what he thinks of the Kursk incursion, if Russia is running low on weapons, and if he can ever envisage a future where the Baltic states can cooperate with the Kremlin on friendly terms.
The Kyiv Independent: Let's jump straight in and start with the biggest story of the moment, the Kursk incursion. Can you just tell me how you found out about that and what your initial reaction to it was?
Andris Spruds: Russia has a lot of vulnerabilities, internal vulnerabilities in terms of the political regime stability, but also in terms of the efficiency of the military.
That's why I think (Ukraine's Kursk incursion) is an excellent example showing that Ukraine has all the capabilities to defend its territory, and also to take the initiative militarily.
The Kyiv Independent: Russia has struggled, well, failed so far to push Ukrainian troops back. And despite all of the rhetoric and saber rattling, they haven't responded with a nuclear weapon, like has been suggested by the Kremlin. What does that mean for the argument that some Western nations make, when they don't provide certain weapon systems because of fears of escalation?
Andris Spruds: If you fall into the trap of Russian blackmail, and start to think what we can do or not do, of course, I think this is basically promoting the Russian cause, and this is what they want to achieve.
So in this case, our aim is to sustain support regardless of some kind of escalatory logic from the Russian side.
Latvia supports fully that Western weaponry can be used for self-defense, which means also self-defense on Russian territory, because Ukrainian cities, Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, Ukrainian people, civilians are being shelled from Russian territory.
Dominic Culverwell
The Kyiv Independent: Russia's strategy for winning the war at the moment appears to be one of attrition and just grinding advances. What do you think Ukraine's strategy has to be to win?
Andris Spruds: Well, I think it's always important to have a clear goal – and it's a clear goal for Ukraine and also a clear goal for the Western support – I believe the goal must be the strategic defeat of Russia in Ukraine.
Which also means that, of course, territorial integrity of Ukraine must be restored.
I would add to this that Russian military strength must be undermined so it is not able to launch any aggressive activities against its neighbors.
Also, the financial resources of Russia, which are frozen, must be used for reconstruction of Ukraine. War criminals must be persecuted, and Ukraine must be part of NATO.
The Kyiv Independent: Slightly, earlier in the year, there were quite a few headlines about things happening in the Baltic Sea region. It hasn't been in the headlines quite as much in recent weeks, but what can you tell us about Russia's continuing actions, if any, in that region?
Andris Spruds: Basically, we are in a hybrid war right now. So that's why for Latvia and the Baltic countries, it's nothing new for us.
For us, there is no need to panic because we've been used to hybrid activities already for years. It's cyber attacks, it's weaponization of illegal immigration, it's disinformation campaigns, it's incidents against critical infrastructure. So we've seen it and we are experiencing it permanently.
"Basically, we are in a hybrid war right now. So that's why for Latvia and the Baltic countries, it's nothing new for us."
Defence Minister of Latvia, Andris Sprūds in Kyiv, Ukraine on Aug. 23, 2024. (Viacheslav Ratynskyi / The Kyiv Independent)
It just once more shows the aggressive nature of our neighbor and what we are facing.
The Kyiv Independent: Germany announced it was investigating alleged Russian drone flights over a nuclear power plant in the north of Germany.
Obviously, there's been quite a few stories about possible Russian espionage across Europe. Do you see these as, like you said, something that's always happened that countries are used to? Or has there been an escalation in this over the last year or two?
Andris Spruds: Well, I think there are, in a sense, ups and downs. And we see sometimes escalation, sometimes perhaps less of those provocations.
Of course, Finland and Sweden joining NATO is extremely important, but it doesn't mean that the Baltic Sea has become a NATO lake.
There is still a Russian presence, there are still Russian provocations, there is still Russian, in a sense, posturing. And we should be ready for this, and again, not panic.
The Kyiv Independent: Obviously, the war in Ukraine has accelerated the distance between Russia and the Baltic states. Can you ever envisage a time in the future when that could slow or even reverse?
Andris Spruds: Well, of course, we would like to live next to a norms-compliant, democratic, economically-developed nation with whom we can cooperate.
Unfortunately, we have never seen this in history. As I mentioned previously, what we are facing is a Russia which might change every five or ten years, but in the end, it doesn't change every 100 years.
So it pretty much stays the same. It's imperialistic, it has expansionist instincts or reflexes. This is what we have been facing already for years.
And that's why, of course, at the moment, it is about containing Russia rather than thinking about some kind of idealistic form of cooperating.
Of course, we would like to cooperate, but we cannot cooperate with a dictatorship which is aggressive against its neighbors. And of course, on the one hand, we might say it's (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's Russia, and after Putin, some changes might take place, but we must also remember that this is Russia's Putin.
So Putin is, in many ways, embodiment of some of the grievances, some of the resentments, some of the ambitions of Russian society.
And unfortunately, what we see is a DNA of imperialism and expansionism.
The Kyiv Independent: Latvia and Lithuania recently reintroduced conscription. Are you concerned that despite all of the political unity across Europe, that maybe the public perception of the threat that Russia poses isn’t a shared vision, and the further away both geographically and historically you are from Russia, people in countries like the UK don’t quite grasp the threat that Russia poses?
Andris Spruds: I would say there are shades of, let’s say, opinions and approaches. Of course, as you mentioned, certainly the understanding of what Russia is and what specific activities must be taken, they also correlate with some of the geographical locations and also historical experiences.
Certainly they are important for the mindset, but still I would also underline that there is a common understanding that Russia is a threat. This common understanding was very clearly defined in the NATO strategic concept already in 2022.
And this has been underlined in every NATO meeting, also at the recent Washington summit, that Russia should be in many ways contained, contested, and constrained. So that’s why, yes, of course, sometimes we might differ in terms of some specific policies. But what is good is that certainly there is a shared understanding of threat assessment, what we are facing.
So that’s why there is understanding that, yes, this is for the long haul.
