Before the election, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said he had "little appetite" for further military aid to Ukraine. While the sentiment is somewhat understandable, it misses a critical point: the nature of warfare has fundamentally changed over the past year, and Ukraine’s aid no longer needs to be a one-way street. Ukraine can now offer its expertise and technology to the U.S. in return.
Ukraine possesses the world’s most advanced tactical unmanned and autonomous weaponry, along with the hard-won experience to deploy it in the world’s most sophisticated battle space. The technology and training Ukraine can offer far outweigh the value of the aid Johnson is hesitant to provide. He may be missing the deal of the century.
"The technology and training Ukraine can offer far outweigh the value of the aid Johnson is hesitant to provide. He may be missing the deal of the century."
It is becoming increasingly clear to the American defense establishment just how dramatically unmanned and autonomous systems (UAS) warfare has shifted the battlefield — and how precarious the U.S. security posture is as a result.
Former U.S. General David Petraeus and former U.S. Army special-operations commander Andy Yakulis note that the pace of drone operations in Ukraine "highlights the urgency with which the U.S. must overhaul its defense system, from operational concepts, structures, and training to weapons systems, procurement, and manufacturing." Recognition of the problem is widespread, but systematic solutions to address the problem are slow in coming.
Sławomir Sierakowski
Matthew Rose and Kathryn Levantovscaia of the Atlantic Council say that "Despite the rapid evolution of drone technology over the last two decades, the United States military did not release its first Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Strategy until 2021, and it’s vastly insufficient to address the new security challenges afoot."
Opinion on Capitol Hill is much the same — staffers warn that the U.S. has a serious problem on its hands and is “way behind the curve” in addressing the unmanned threat.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is leading the charge. By necessity, it has become the world’s preeminent developer in this new battle space, only whiskers ahead in a breakneck race with Russia. Both sides have adapted unmanned systems in ways thought inconceivable just a few short years ago.
Ukraine is on track to produce 1.2 million drones this year, with plans to grow toward 4 million annually. Although security restrictions make it difficult to say for certain, this likely surpasses U.S. Defense Department acquisitions by orders of magnitude. The number of drone manufacturers in Ukraine has increased from seven in 2022 to over 100 in 2024.
Ukraine’s rapid research and development cycle, built upon a decentralized “levée en masse” production system, allows it to lead the global UAS market and deliver innovative solutions to the battlefield at an astonishing rate.
The pace of this development is only accelerating. Ukraine is rapidly advancing artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and sensor technologies, swarm technology, and the integration of computer vision and real-time data processing, as well as diversifying its UAS portfolio with specialized developments drones for carriers, targets, electronic warfare, and kamikaze attacks.
In short, Ukraine has earned its fearsome reputation for multi-domain drone operations, and it’s time for the U.S. to fully embrace this fact. Ukrainian technical creativity has reshaped modern warfare, and the U.S. defense establishment should be eager to exchange some of its war materiel for the tactical lessons Ukraine has learned.
Other global actors have already recognized the strategic potential of partnering with Ukraine’s defense sector. Prominent players like U.S.-based Skydio, Germany’s Quantum-Systems, and Turkey’s Baykar have quickly set up offices or drone manufacturing plants in Ukraine. They understand, as American politicians do not, that Ukraine is the new global center for technical innovation.
Vast, well-funded military-industrial complexes like in the U.S. are predictably slow to adapt to new realities. Russia, China, and the U.S. must now reckon with the fact that their expensive, high-tech weapons systems — the result of decades of acquisition — are vulnerable to relatively inexpensive systems.
Ukraine’s naval drones, which cost just $200,000 each, have already destroyed two dozen Russian warships in the Black Sea, forcing Russia to retreat from the Crimean coast. Estimates suggest the Russian Army has lost approximately 9,000 tanks, 18,000 armored vehicles, 20,000 artillery systems, 369 aircraft, 329 helicopters, and over 700,000 personnel — many of these losses due to drone attacks. In October alone, Ukraine’s UAS "destroyed or damaged" over 52,000 Russian targets, including 129 artillery systems, 221 pieces of radio equipment, and more than 4,000 Russian troops.
Ukrainian drone strikes have also targeted over 30 oil refineries, reducing Russian crude processing capacity by as much as 14.5%. Ukrainian drone swarms have played key roles not only in standoff attacks on oil refineries and military bases but also in Ukraine’s successful incursion into the Kursk oblast. It has become a joke among Ukrainians that while Russia “shoots down all incoming drones,” the "falling debris" is bleeding its war machine dry.
But if U.S. defense planners believe Russia will remain passive or static in its response, they are in for a rude awakening. Russia has been investing in domestic drone production since 2008 and announced plans this year to ramp up production by nearly tenfold to 1.4 million units.
While Russia’s reliance on foreign components and its failure to implement decentralized production models give Ukraine an advantage, it remains a formidable competitor in the drone space. Its partnerships with Iran, North Korea, and possibly China mean there’s no time to waste for the U.S.
"While Russia’s reliance on foreign components and its failure to implement decentralized production models give Ukraine an advantage, it remains a formidable competitor in the drone space."
The pace of technological development on the Ukrainian battlefield is pushing both sides to innovate rapidly. Russians continue to try to replicate Ukraine’s drone technologies and tactics, motivating Ukrainians to develop even more sophisticated innovations. This accelerated arms race demands that the U.S. stay updated on developments such as "dragon drones" that release molten thermite on enemy positions and the Palianytsia, a hybrid rocket-drone with a long-range strike capability of 435 miles (700 km).
Timothy Ash
Ukraine still desperately needs key investments in its defense sector and continued military aid, while the U.S. must learn to operate effectively in the newest battle domain. As Ukraine seeks foreign capital for its military-defense complex, Russia’s attacks persist, fueled by fresh transfers from North Korea and Iran. As these autocratic nations push the world toward potential conflict, it’s vital for the U.S. and Ukraine to work out bilateral defense arrangements that serve both countries' vital interests.
This two-way partnership would be relatively simple to establish: Ukraine can already supply tens of thousands of the most advanced First-Person-View (FPV) attack drones to the U.S. Defense Department, along with training from some of the world’s most skilled drone pilots. Many of these courses can be taught virtually, allowing Ukrainian instructors to continue fighting while sharing tactical and technical updates with their American counterparts.
The initiative has strong political backing. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks’ Replicator Initiative aims to equip operational units with "tens of thousands" of drones by next year. Outsourcing this monumental acquisition to Ukraine would be a straightforward proposition, provided red tape is eliminated in the national interest. After all, Ukraine is the best place to buy drones right now — not only are they the most advanced, but they’re also comparatively cheap.
Allied weapons have given Ukraine the time to build its defense frameworks, and it is now developing new technologies and tactics at a rapid pace. Ukraine can now offer the U.S. a tremendous asset in exchange for the aid it has received: deep, relevant experience in the world’s most advanced battle space. Now that the election is over, sending Ukraine the weapons and funds it needs in exchange for cutting-edge technology, tactics, and training is a bargain Speaker Johnson would be foolish to ignore.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.
