ISW: Russia unlikely to make significant gains launching new counteroffensive in Vuhledar

Russia may attempt to launch another counteroffensive in Vuhledar but is unlikely to make significant gains due to issues with military personnel and ammunition supply, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) update on March 9.

This analysis echoes what military spokesman Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi said on national television on March 10.

"There is no question of an offensive since the enemy has suffered quite significant losses," Dmytrashkivskyi said. "In the last week, they have aggressively attacked positions near Vuhledar, Mariinka, and Avdiivka with their top units. However, it is now apparent that the morale and psychological state of the Russian military has drastically deteriorated."

The ISW's report indicates that on March 8, a video circulating on social media allegedly featured members of the Russian military's 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade requesting more artillery before they were sent to conduct combat missions near Vuhledar. 

The 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade is set to replace the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet after the latter suffered "catastrophic" losses, the ISW said.

According to the ISW, the Russian military is sending most of its artillery and resources to Bakhmut, located approximately 150 kilometers to the northeast of Vuhledar.