On March 12, the Commander of Ukraine's Joint Forces, Serhii Naev, stated that Belarus might be preparing to host additional forces from Russia.
“The threat of a ground invasion from the north is currently low. Russian troops are on the territory of Belarus. A military rotation has been carried out, and some of the forces have been withdrawn,” said Naev.
“Now there is information that tent camps were left in Belarus at four training grounds meant to host additional forces. We are monitoring the situation with Ukraine's State Border Guard Service. Currently, the situation is stable and under control.”
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate reported on March 9 that Russia is planning a “large-scale provocation” on Belarus' border with Ukraine “in the near future.” This might potentially involve the destruction of infrastructure facilities and victims among civilians.
Prior to that, the Institute for the Study of War ISW reported that Russia’s attack on Ukraine from Belarus is more plausible at the end of 2023.“There are no observed indicators that Russian forces in Belarus have the command and control structures necessary for the winter or spring 2023 attack against Ukraine about which Ukraine issued warnings in late 2022,” the ISW wrote.
