The sanctions appear to be in response to Russia's rejection of a 30-day ceasefire that the U.K., alongside Ukraine, France, Germany, and Poland, demanded during a visit to Kyiv on May 10.
"We now know for sure that the great fire of the Marywilska shopping centre in Warsaw was caused by arson ordered by the Russian special services," Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on X. "Some of the perpetrators have already been detained, all the others are identified and searched for."
The publications' latest report covers the period of February 24, 2022 to May 8, 2025. Since it was last updated at the end of April, 2,857 additional Russian military personnel have been confirmed killed.
Hungary cancelled a meeting planned for May 12 with a Ukrainian delegation on the rights of national minorities, Hungary's Deputy Foreign Minister said on May 11, amid a deepening spying scandal between the two countries.
Three were injured in Russia's Kursk Oblast when the town of Rylsk was allegedly struck by a missile attack on May 11, local governor Alexander Khinshtein claimed.
This week, the world watched in anticipation for Russia’s Victory Day parade after President Volodymyr Zelensky commented that he could not guarantee the safety of those attending. Meanwhile, the European Union moves one step forward to banning Russian gas from the European continent. It is also revealed this week that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has fallen out of step with the White House.
"(Russian) President (Vladimir) Putin... doesn't want to have a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the bloodbath. Ukraine should agree to this, immediately," U.S. President Donald Trump said.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to to Antalya, Turkey, for a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting from May 14–16, where he is expected to address the war in Ukraine and push for stronger Allied defense commitments.
The Kremlin said the leaders held a detailed discussion about the Russian initiative and Erdogan expressed full support, reiterating Turkey’s readiness to provide a venue and assist in organizing the negotiations.
Russian soldiers in an armored vehicle during a Victory Day military parade rehearsal on the Red Square in Moscow on May 3, 2011. (Dmitry Kostyukov /AFP via Getty Images)
Some economic and military indicators suggest that Russia may be preparing for a large-scale conventional war with NATO, "likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited," the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its daily report on March 20.
Although not an imminent threat, the ISW assesses that Russian President Vladimir Putin's emphasis on growing Russia's economic and military capabilities is an indication that Russia is gearing up for conflict beyond "a protracted war in Ukraine."
Following Putin's rigged "victory" in the 2024 Russian presidential election, the Russian leader met with party faction leaders in the Russian State Duma, Russia's lower house, to emphasize Russia's priorities in growing the economy.
According to a readout released by the Kremlin, Putin emphasized the need to grow the "new elite" that will "will mature on the front," as opposed to supporting Russian oligarchs who have "lined their pockets" in amassing wealth through privatization and corruption after the fall of the Soviet Union.
The ISW suggests that by outlining a mandate to Russian political elites, Putin is likely seeking to "stabilize Russia's long-term financial position with increased government expenditure." Putin's willingness to risk his relationships with the wealthy strongmen who support him points to more expansive military ambitions.
Despite opposition from some Russian oligarchs at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, a shift to a war-time economy will reportedly grow Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.6 percent this year, with 3.6 percent growth in 2023.
The ISW also assessed that an expansion of Russia's military capabilities, as well as military restructuring, are indicators that Russia is setting conditions for the possibility of future direct conflict with NATO.
The ISW gave no timeline as to when they believe a direct conflict with NATO may play out, noting that a timeline for Russia's preparedness to launch an attack against NATO is heavily reliant "on the financial resources Putin is willing to put against military efforts."
A number of Western leaders have warned of the long-term threat Russia's expansionism poses to NATO countries. Polish President Andrzej Duda said on March 19 that Russia may attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027. Poland's national security agency has previously estimated that Russia could attack NATO in less than36 months.
Polish assessments fall in line with assessments made Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, who estimated on Feb. 9 that Russia may attack NATO within three to five years.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that NATO must prepare itself for a confrontation against Russia "that could last decades."
An armed attack on a NATO state triggers the Alliance's Article 5, requiring allies to consider an attack against one member as an attack against the collective and render any military assistance necesssary.
Dmytro Basmat is a senior news editor for The Kyiv Independent. He previously worked in Canadian politics as a communications lead and spokesperson for a national political party, and as a communications assistant for a Canadian Member of Parliament. Basmat has a Master's degree in Political Management from Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, and a Bachelor of Arts in Politics and Governance from Toronto Metropolitan University.
Joschka Fischer
