NATO membership for Ukraine is becoming increasingly elusive.
The previous U.S. administration silently opposed extending a NATO invitation to Ukraine. The current U.S. administration has made its opposition public.
"You can forget about (NATO membership). That's probably the reason the whole thing (war) started," U.S. President Donald Trump said on Feb. 26 when asked about the potential settlement between Ukraine and Russia.
Such a policy by Ukraine's main backer has raised eyebrows in the past. It doesn't anymore.
For decades, Russian officials and propaganda have been using NATO enlargement as a justification for the Kremlin's hostile action toward the country's neighbors, including its wars against Ukraine and Georgia.
Despite the U.S. and other NATO member states giving a variety of reasons why they have been against welcoming Ukraine to the military alliance, experts the Kyiv Independent spoke to said the only real reason for keeping Kyiv out is Moscow's stance on the issue.
"The Biden administration was always fearful of escalation in the conflict with Russia. The Trump administration has its own reasons, probably linked to any deal it's trying to strike with Moscow on a ceasefire," Mark Webber, non-resident associate fellow at the NATO Defense College, told the Kyiv Independent.
Does Ukraine meet NATO's requirements?
NATO follows "an open door" policy, meaning that a new country can be invited to join the alliance with the consent of all 32 members. The requirements for future candidates include support for democracy, development of a market economy, civilian control of the armed forces, respect for the sovereignty of other countries, and work on interoperability with NATO forces.
The first step to joining the alliance is receiving a Membership Action Plan (MAP) with recommendations for the candidate country. In 2008, Ukraine applied to receive the MAP and was able to secure the backing from U.S. President George W. Bush.
Yet, under increased pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin, the alliance members, primarily Germany and France, rejected Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO.
Kyiv returned to the path of Euro-Atlantic integration years later, after Russia launched its war against Ukraine, occupying Crimea and parts of the country's eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Before the start of the war, most Ukrainians didn't support joining a military union and preferred their country to remain a neutral state. Following the start of the war, NATO membership was supported by the majority of the population, peaking at over 80% following the start of the all-out war in 2022.
In late 2022, Ukraine applied for an accelerated accession to the alliance, and in 2023, NATO leaders ruled that Kyiv could become a member without the need for a Membership Action Plan.
Yet, Kyiv wasn't invited to join, unlike Finland and Sweden that are also in close proximity to Russia.
"Ukraine is seemingly unusual in that it is a large, important pro-NATO country, which wants to join the alliance but has not generated consensus amongst it to be admitted," Webber said.
NATO members could also be restrained by the level of potential obligations to a country that joined the alliance while it is at war and by the provisions of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense, enshrined in Article 5, according to the expert.
Tennyson Dearing
The article suggests that an attack on one member is an attack on all member states, however, it doesn't clearly define the actions that member states are obligated to take.
Among the reasons Ukraine was denied membership in the past were the lack of transparency in defense procurement and the allegedly high level of corruption in the country, as the Biden administration hinted previously. Yet Webber said NATO has already been joined by countries with "a poor record when it comes to corruption."
"Albania, Bulgaria, and Romania joined NATO and the European Union, even though I think it would be fair to say that their political, economic system and even the management of defense procurement had a whiff of corruption about it," Webber said.
"I think it's probably an excuse that is used (against Ukraine)," he added. "Ultimately, the geostrategic problem and the fear of antagonizing Russia is the most significant obstacle."
This opinion is shared by Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham.
"Russia, arguably, feels more threatened by Ukrainian NATO membership because (Vladimir) Putin clearly cannot accept that Ukraine 'turns against' Russia and because Ukraine, unlike Finland or Sweden, is integral to Putin's vision of a Russian sphere of influence," Wolff said.
Russia's influence on Western bloc
Russia attempted to justify its invasion of Ukraine by an alleged threat from NATO, among other reasons. Now, the Kremlin is putting a ban on Ukraine to ever joining NATO among its main demands for concluding a potential peace agreement to end the war it had started.
Several NATO members, including the U.K., France, Italy, Poland, and the Baltic states, have supported Ukraine's accession to NATO, calling it an essential security guarantee. Yet, two key members, U.S. and Germany, as well as Hungary and Slovakia, have declared that they do not support this step.
"Germany has traditionally been cautious when it comes to upsetting opinions in Russia," Webber said.
It's difficult to predict whether this position will change under Friedrich Merz, who is set to become Germany's next chancellor in the upcoming months.
Merz has been seen as a pro-Ukrainian politician, recently calling for transferring German-made long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been hesitant to do.
Regarding Slovakia and Hungary, experts agree that with prime ministers Robert Fico and Viktor Orban in office, it would be hard to push those countries to support an invitation to Ukraine.
Bratislava and Budapest continue to argue that Ukraine's membership in NATO will lead to an escalation with Russia.
The main obstacle would, of course, be Washington, with the current administration signaling that Ukraine is not welcome to join an alliance or to receive any sort of security guarantee.
At the same time, Wolff noted that joining NATO may not meet Kyiv's expectations on security guarantees.
"The key question, to which nobody really has an answer at the moment, is whether, under Trump, the deterrent effect of Article 5 still has any credible meaning. If it doesn't, then joining the alliance would not give Ukraine the security it deserves," Wolff said.
Martin Fornusek
