Russian and Belarusian armies will unlikely attack Ukraine from the north, despite recent strongman Alexander Lukashenko's announcement that the two countries had agreed to deploy a strategic formation of Russian and Belarusian units, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Instead, the Kremlin "may seek to use additional Russian forces in Belarus to fix Ukrainian forces near Kyiv and prevent their redeployment elsewhere to participate in counter-offensives," reads the report.
On Oct. 10, Belarusian dictator Lukashenko supported Russia's large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine, adding that his country began the process of creating a joint regional military command with Moscow. He didn't explain what the new military formation would be tasked with.
for an independent Ukraine