Ukrainian forces will be able to hold seized territory in Russia's Kursk Oblast for several months or longer, according to U.S. assessments, senior U.S. officials told Bloomberg on Oct. 9.
Ukraine launched a cross-border incursion into Kursk Oblast in early August, allegedly seizing around 100 settlements and over 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles). Russia began a counteroffensive in the region in September, with reportedly minimal success.
According to senior U.S. officials, the U.S. assesses that Ukraine can continue to hold territory in Kursk Oblast for months to come.
The reliable flow of supplies into the region and Russia's focus on advances in eastern Ukraine are key factors, officials told Bloomberg, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
After enduring months of dire ammunition shortages, Ukrainian troops are now receiving a steady supply of shells, the officials said.
Allied efforts to bolster Kyiv's artillery ammunition stores have helped improve the supply chain. A Czech-led ammunition initiative is already making deliveries and aims to send Ukraine 80,000 to 100,000 rounds per month until the end of this year.
Russia's counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast has also not yet ousted Ukrainian troops from the region. The Ukrainian military claimed on Sept. 18 that the counterattack had stopped, with Russia only regaining a handful of settlements.
Moscow is instead concentrating on its grinding advance in eastern Ukraine, closing in on the Donetsk Oblast cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that the Kursk incursion succeeded in drawing some Russian troops away from Ukraine's front lines, but that it is "too early to judge" the overall success of the operation.
Zelensky also maintains that the offensive has helped Ukrainian prisoners of war by replenishing the country's "exchange fund," enabling prisoner swaps with Russia.
The seizure of Russian territory is meant to improve Ukraine's bargaining position in future peace talks, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Zelensky's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, said on Aug. 16.
James Beardsworth
