The Counteroffensive: What the Trump shooting could mean for Ukraine

Editor’s Note: This article was published by the twice-weekly newsletter “The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak” on July 14, 2024, and has been re-published by the Kyiv Independent with permission. To subscribe to "The Counteroffensive," click here.

The assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump on July 14 sent shockwaves around the world and fueled speculation about how it would influence the U.S. presidential election campaign. Here’s how the breaking news will affect Russia's war in Ukraine:

Trump's popularity is likely to surge.

• Following then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan's attempted assassination in March 1981, his popularity surged from near 60% to 68%, according to Gallup. Sympathy and concern for his well-being were core to this rise. The same may happen for Trump in this case. Already, betting markets show that Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election are significantly higher. The shooting increases the likelihood of Trump’s election and the implementation of a considerably less favorable U.S. foreign policy approach to Ukraine.

It will drown out news about Ukraine.

• Russia's war against Ukraine was already facing the prospect of taking a backseat to domestic American politics. Watch the trend of "Ukraine" searches on Google in the U.S. over the past year. The chaos in the U.S. as it approaches its presidential election in November will make it harder for information about Russian atrocities to break through. Russia's recent attack on the children's hospital in Kyiv was less than a week ago, yet it has already faded into the background.

There will be a less confident U.S. on the world stage.

• Regardless of the immediate polling changes, the mayhem in the ongoing presidential campaign will lead to a decline in American confidence. Our house is not in order. Our domestic politics are a mess. This is likely not the last incident of political violence to take place in the U.S. this year, considering how high tensions are in the political space. Attention paid to America’s civil disorder will weaken the country’s ability to project stability abroad. Our allies will wonder if they can trust that American foreign policy will be steered with a steady hand, and our authoritarian enemies will take this moment to question the tumultuous nature of democracy.
• Here’s one example: A Russian foreign ministry spokesperson reacted to the shooting by saying that the U.S. should have invested in its domestic security, rather than funding its allies in Ukraine. A British friend of mine told me earlier this week that this would be a perfect time for America’s enemies to try something drastic. And in times of weakness, they might. Putin may feel emboldened to escalate in Ukraine while the U.S. is distracted, and his friends in North Korea, Iran, and China will likely feel the same.

Trump will become more vengeful and paranoid.

• Even before the shooting, Trump was promoting social media posts that called for military tribunals for his enemies. Having survived an apparent attempt on his life, he will be encouraged by his supporters and closest confidantes to aggressively seek retribution against their perceived threats. Trump has already threatened to quickly cut U.S. aid to Ukraine if he's elected president. If voters choose him, he will feel empowered to do so — and to punish those who he perceives to have betrayed him in the past. This means that people who have spoken out against Trump — such as those who testified during the first impeachment inquiry on Ukraine — should expect to be targeted in some way in a potential second Trump term.

The shooting in Pennsylvania portends terrible developments to come for both the U.S. and Ukraine — not to mention the rest of the free world.

Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.