LATEST: Syrian rebels announce fall of Russia-backed Assad regime
Russian military positions in Syria are under increasing threat as rebel forces make significant advances in the country, Russian milbloggers have warned.
Syrian rebel forces launched a major surprise offensive last week, advancing rapidly through the country, and seizing the major cities of Aleppo and Hama.
According to the latest reports, they are now approaching the capital Damascus. Events are unfolding rapidly, and the Russian milblogger's claims could not be independently verified.
There is much at stake for Russia — if Assad's regime falls, Russia will lose its regional foothold in the Middle East, including its only naval base in the Mediterranean, and its regional and global influence will be diminished.
But propping up Assad and defending the Syrian capital of Damascus from any rebel advance will require military support that Moscow may not be able to spare when the vast bulk of its forces are fighting in Ukraine.
Russia operates the Tartus naval base, the Khmeimim Air Base, and other military facilities in the country.
"Syria represents Moscow's only military foothold in the Mediterranean," Neil Quilliam, a Middle East expert at Chatham House, previously told the Kyiv Independent.
Prominent Russian milblogger Rybar, with over 1.3 million followers on Telegram, sounded the alarm about the growing threats facing Moscow's forces in Syria.
"We must acknowledge the reality — the insurgents will not stop," Rybar cautioned in a post on Telegram.
"Their objective is to inflict maximum losses — both reputational and physical — on the Russian Federation’s representatives in Syria, with a particular focus on destroying our military bases."
Similar claims were made by Russian milblogger Aleksei Zhivov who described events unfolding in Syria as "another front of the West against Russia with the participation of Turkey and NATO."
Oleg Sukhov
When Assad's regime captured Aleppo in 2016 after years of fighting for the city, Russia's military intervention was a major reason behind his success.
Since 2015, Russia has sent warplanes, tanks, artillery, and ground troops to Syria.
Rybar also reported that the rebels reportedly entered Palmyra, another Syrian city, without encountering resistance. Speculation arose that the Syrian army may have "abandoned all positions and retreated to Damascus or simply fled."
In response, Russian journalist Yuri Kotyonok expressed concerns on his Telegram channel about the fate of the Tiyas military base near Palmyra, which hosts a Russian military battalion.
Russian mil blogger Anastasia Kashevarova claimed preparations for an evacuation at Tiyas are underway and that Tifor, a shared military base operated by the Russian Ministry of Defense and Syrian forces, is already in the process of being evacuated.
She added that Syrian coordinators within the Russian Defense Ministry are allegedly "urgently" assembling a group of veterans who have previously fought in Syria, reportedly to address the escalating challenges in the region.
Russian milblogger Alexander Kots said "the situation in the country is heating up with each passing hour."
He noted that if the militants "take the city [Homs] and make a dash to the border with Lebanon, then the governorates of Tartus and Latakia, where Russian military bases are deployed, will be cut off from the rest of the country."
Kots added that while "the army and tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces are doing everything possible to slow down the advance of the militants," these efforts are unlikely to succeed "without support on the ground."
Russian milblogger Fighterbomber described the evolving situation in Syria as "roughly the same as in 2015," but with one exception: "The appearance of drones."
He said drones have become a game-changing factor, stating that "no one, anywhere, has yet learned to reliably counter them."
He warned that this development could put at risk the Russian-operated Khmeimim Air Base which could cease functioning if the enemy approaches "within artillery range or drone flight range."
He added that evacuation would be nearly impossible, saying that "at best, we could evacuate most of the personnel, documentation, and operational aircraft," along with some equipment loaded onto transport ships, but "all other property would remain at the bases."
Summing up, he argued the primary mission must be "to prevent the enemy from entering Latakia, even if it means temporarily surrendering all other territories."
"The initiative is not on our side, and the situation is very difficult — this cannot be denied," he added.
Masha Lavrova
(Updated: )
