Russian Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad could be sign of weakness, experts say

Just days after an "unprecedented" violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones, the Kremlin indulged in a provocative display right next to NATO's border by deploying Iskander-M ballistic missiles just 40 kilometers from Poland.

While part of the long-planned Zapad military exercises conducted with Belarus, experts told the Kyiv Independent the flaunting of missiles in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad was meant to send a very deliberate message.

"This serves as an opportunity for Russia to intimidate European audiences through information and influence operations, and to directly signal its capabilities and readiness to NATO governments," John Ridge, a security assistance analyst at Tochnyi.info, said.

The move comes as tensions between Russian and NATO reach levels not seen since the end of the Cold War, with the Western military alliance announcing an increase in its military presence along its eastern flank in response to Russia launching at least 21 drones into Polish airspace overnight on Sept. 10.

But other experts suggest that Russia's display of military might in Kaliningrad could actually be an indication of weakness.

"The Russian regime needs to show ability and give the impression that they are a powerful rival to NATO and the West," Jan Kallberg, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told the Kyiv Independent.

"Because, after over three years of failures in Ukraine, Russian geopolitical bargaining power has evaporated," he added.

Iskanders in Kaliningrad

Following the airspace violations involving drones over Poland and Romania, Russia, in coordination with Belarus, conducted drills in Kaliningrad Oblast, a heavily militarized exclave on the Baltic Sea, bordered by NATO members Poland and Lithuania.

"We are closely monitoring the situation on our western and northern borders, and we cannot remain indifferent to the ongoing militarization and military activity," Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said at the opening of the exercises.

As part of this broader show of force, evidence of missile redeployments near NATO borders also emerged. A video began circulating online on Sept. 13 that appeared to show a Russian Iskander missile system moving on the E28 highway near the village of Kudryavtsevo, just under 40 kilometers (24 miles) from NATO territory in Poland, according to the OSINT group Cyberboroshno.

What is an Iskander missile and what can it do?

The Russian military has operated the Iskander missile systems since the early 2000s. In Kaliningrad Oblast, home to the 152nd Missile Brigade, the 9K720 Iskander-M variant, also known by its NATO reporting name SS-26 Stone, is deployed.

Russia has used the Iskander-M extensively in Ukraine in numerous devastating attacks. The missile descends almost vertically at its target, striking at a near 90-degree angle, and typically leaves behind a large, circular crater upon impact.

The Iskander-M is a ballistic missile that travels at Mach 6-7 (7,400-8,600 kmh). It measures 7.3 meters in length, with a 0.9-meter diameter, weighs up to 3,800 kilograms, and carries a 480-kilogram warhead.

Each missile costs an estimated $3 million.

Russia upgraded its ballistic missiles with radar decoys and evasive maneuvers, making them potentially harder to intercept even by Patriot air defenses, Ukraine's Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on May 24, after a massive attack on Kyiv.

The Iskander-M can be equipped with a cluster warhead, but even more concerning is its capability to carry a nuclear warhead.

With an operational range of up to 500 kilometers (310 miles), the Iskander-M can reach six NATO countries from Kaliningrad: Poland, Germany, Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, putting key military and civilian infrastructure within its strike radius.

Adding to concerns, recent satellite imagery from Planet Labs, published by Business Insider in July, suggested that Russia has begun expanding a facility in Kaliningrad believed to house part of its nuclear arsenal, a move that raises further alarm about the region’s growing strategic significance.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in June 2024 that as many as 100 tactical nuclear warheads could be housed at a suspected nuclear weapons storage facility in the exclave.

Threat escalation or just more Russian saber-rattling?

According to Ridge, the recent developments surrounding the Zapad military exercises do not significantly depart from the baseline threat already posed by Russian forces in Kaliningrad and Belarus.

However, they provide the Kremlin with an opportunity to demonstrate its ability to threaten population centers and critical military infrastructure, not only in Central Europe but also in its Western region, using both conventional and nuclear capabilities, he added.

NATO has issued its own warnings in relation to Kaliningrad — U.S. Army Europe and Africa Commander General Chris Donahue said in July 2025 that Russia’s exclave, approximately 76 kilometers (47 miles) wide, is entirely encircled by NATO member states, and the U.S. Army and its allies are capable of neutralizing the threat "from the ground in a timeframe that is unheard of and faster than we have ever been able to do."

Ridge echoed Donahue’s stance, saying that NATO members are currently well-positioned to repel and respond to any potential attacks from Kaliningrad, including threats posed by Russia’s 152nd Missile Brigade.

But in the European countries closest to Kaliningrad, there is still concern.

Marko Mihkelson, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Estonian Parliament, said that NATO’s response to such provocations must be "clear and resolute" to avoid further escalation.

"It is not enough to merely strengthen deterrence on the eastern flank," he told the Kyiv Independent.

"We must take the first practical steps toward protecting Ukrainian airspace, starting with the establishment of a no-fly zone, at least over Ukraine’s western regions."

Mihkelson added that Russia’s missile posturing only underscores Moscow’s sense of impunity and its ongoing attempt to exploit divisions within the West.

But for Kallberg, Russia’s recent display of Iskander missiles is less about signaling to NATO or Ukraine, and more about preserving its status in its relationship with China.

With few tools left to project influence, nuclear weapons remain one of Russia’s last levers of power, he added.

Kallberg pointed to recent diplomatic events — the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, held in late August and early September — as particularly revealing.

"The latest gathering of authoritarian leaders in Beijing clearly showed Xi Jinping as the rich uncle from the city, and Putin as the begging poor cousin from rural nowhere," Kallberg remarked.

"Putin was a sidekick."

‘A careful calculation’ — Russia’s drone incursion into Poland tests NATO’s red lines

Russia and NATO are currently in the most open confrontation since the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War — but only one side seems to be acknowledging it. The incursion of 21 Russian drones into Polish airspace on Sept. 9 — unprecedented in the history of Moscow’s relations with NATO — has brought the prospects of a direct military exchange between the two adversaries into the forefront. “Even though NATO is not at war, Russian aggression strikes beyond Ukraine,” Polish Foreign M

The Kyiv IndependentFrancis Farrell