Monthly chart: Ukraine braces for tough summer months as Russia renews attacks on energy infrastructure

The following is a chart based off of data originally published in the Kyiv-based Center of Economic Strategy's "Ukraine War Economy Tracker." The Kyiv Independent is republishing it with permission.

On April 11, Russia carried out another large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure — the third since the beginning of 2024 — destroying the Trypillia thermal power plant, the largest such plant near Kyiv, with a missile strike.

Missile attacks in recent weeks have almost completely destroyed Ukraine's thermal power generation and have also severely damaged some Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants, such as the Dnipro hydroelectric power station.

As a result of attacks on the country's energy system since the end of March, Ukraine has had to implement restrictions of businesses' energy use and rolling blackouts for households and industry.

Ukraine's power grid currently relies almost entirely on nuclear power plants, which are also supported by wind and solar power plants — although the latter's production is heavily dependent on weather conditions.

Data on electricity consumption in Ukraine has disappeared from public access since the start of the full-scale invasion, but trends in the energy sector can be assessed using net electricity exports — that is, the extent to which Ukraine exports more electricity than it imports.

Electricity imports from all of Ukraine's neighboring countries (except Belarus and Russia, with which Ukraine has no connection) have repeatedly become a lifeline for the country.

After the recent intensification of Russian attacks, Ukraine has been forced to import extremely large amounts of electricity on some days. Consumption traditionally drops in Spring due to better weather, and under normal circumstances, Ukraine would be exporting electricity.

Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukrenergo, has also warned that imports from Europe would not be able to completely cover Ukraine's energy deficit as a result of the attacks. On May 13, the company said that Ukraine planned record electricity imports from five European countries.

Imports were expected to hit 19,484 megawatt hours (Mwh) on May 13, a record high after 18,649 Mwh were imported at the end of March following a series of massive Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector.

Summer is coming, when people and businesses will start to actively use air conditioners to cool their premises, putting a load on the grid comparable to winter peaks.

Will the Ukrainian power system be able to cope with this challenge? One thing is for sure: Ukraine needs more Western air defense systems to at least preserve what is left.

Rebuilding Kyiv Oblast power plant possible but ‘futile’ without air defense, Centerenergo says

The Trypillia Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv Oblast can be restored with international help but this will be “futile” without more air defense, Andrii Hota, the chair of Ukraine’s state energy company Centerenergo’s supervisory board, told Voice of America on April 11.

The Kyiv IndependentElsa Court