Russian President Vladimir Putin's conditions for a ceasefire are unrealistic and tantamount to demanding that Ukraine disarm itself and surrender, analysts say.
Putin said on March 13 that Russia was ready to agree to the U.S.-backed 30-day-long ceasefire in Ukraine but then followed by listing a number of demands — a ban on Ukrainian mobilization or training of troops and a halt on Western military aid for Kyiv.
Putin also hinted that Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk Oblast must surrender.
Later the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Putin in Moscow.
Trump reacted by saying on March 14, "We had very good and productive discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia yesterday, and there is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end."
"It appears that Putin pretends to accept a ceasefire in principle, in order not to be criticized for being obstructive, but demands concessions as a precondition," Richard Betts, professor emeritus of war and peace studies at Columbia University, told the Kyiv Independent.
"This is consistent with his previous demands that Ukraine must agree to concessions before Russia negotiates with it. In short, Putin appears to view negotiations for a peace agreement not as a bargaining process but as a process for arranging the conditions of Ukraine's surrender."
Yana Prots
Playing Trump's game
Peter Rough, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, argued that "Putin can't afford to say no to Trump altogether but will add a series of conditions."
"Putin may not be able to take Kyiv in this round of war, but he may be able to get the Donbas, and he will try to apply the Georgia model of hybrid war to take Kyiv later," he said.
"His response to the ceasefire proposal is only the first in a series of counter-proposals to achieve that goal. The bottom line is he hasn't changed his goal of subsuming Ukraine."
William Wohlforth, a professor focusing on international relations at Dartmouth College, also said that "Putin's highly conditional 'unconditional' acceptance of the 'idea' of a ceasefire is meant to play for time and see how much pressure the Trump administration is willing to exert, and on whom, to make progress."
"To me, Putin's comments in response to the ceasefire idea suggest a desire to sustain momentum in the improvement in relations with the Trump administration while at the same time not saying anything that would compromise his larger political objective with respect to Ukraine," he added.
Putin's statement on 'root causes'
Putin said, "We agree with the proposals to cease hostilities, but they must lead to long-term peace and address the root causes of the crisis."
Bettina Renz, a professor of international security at Nottingham University and the author of the book "Russia's Military Revival," argued that "his demand that the 'root causes' of the war need to be addressed as a precondition for the ceasefire agreement is particularly concerning."
"Thinking back to February 2022, the 'root causes' of and justifications for the invasion listed by the Kremlin were sweeping and included, amongst other things, NATO enlargement since the 1990s, a denial of the legitimacy of the democratically elected Ukrainian government, and the 'militarisation' of Ukraine," she said.
"If addressing these 'root causes' in Russia's favor is a precondition for a 30-day ceasefire agreement in the Kremlin's eyes, this is clearly unreasonable and unrealistic. At this point, it looks like the Kremlin will be prepared to agree to a ceasefire only under conditions that are ideal for Russia."
Disarming and 'demilitarizing' Ukraine
Putin also claimed that Russian troops were "advancing on almost all sections of the front line."
"Conditions are also being created there for us to encircle and block entire fairly large enemy units," he said. "How will these 30 days be used? Will forced mobilization continue in Ukraine? Will weapons be supplied there? Will newly mobilized units undergo training? Or will none of this happen?"
Putin's claims about Russia's all-around advances were false.
Russia has been on the offensive in Donetsk Oblast since 2023. However, in recent months, its advance has slowed down in many areas, with Ukraine even conducting counteroffensives near the towns of Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
The Kremlin's only major success in recent weeks was Ukraine's withdrawal from a part of Russia's Kursk Oblast as Russian troops cut off logistical routes in the region.
Putin's demand that Ukraine should stop mobilization and training and should not receive Western military aid does not make any sense and will not be accepted by Kyiv, experts say.
"Of course, Ukraine won't put limits on its own military forces. That would be suicidal," Rough said. "It also won't stop asking for and receiving weapons from the West. That would be suicidal as well. These are non-starters, and even Putin must understand that."
Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, told the Kyiv Independent that Putin "wants a weak Ukraine that is unable to defend itself and has no ability to resist Russian pressure."
"The sooner he achieves that, the more likely it is that he can impose his own conditions," he added. "Part of his original war aims was the demilitarization of Ukraine, and part of this is depriving Ukraine of Western military support."
Renz argued that "Putin's concerns over Ukraine using a 30-day ceasefire to regroup and rearm, and over the difficulties of monitoring such a ceasefire, refer to limitations affecting any ceasefire agreement."
"Ceasefire agreements are always merely a first step in the cessation of armed conflict and a compromise, and their success can never be guaranteed," she added. "Clearly, the Ukrainian leadership has similar concerns about a ceasefire agreement with Russia. However, in comparison to the Kremlin, the Ukrainian leadership willingly expressed the readiness to accept a ceasefire despite these risks."
Volodymyr Ariev, a member of parliament from the opposition European Solidarity party, told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine could put forward counter-demands.
For example, Kyiv could say that Russia should stop transporting extra military equipment to Ukraine and recruiting soldiers for its war effort, he added.
Oleg Sukhov
Alleged encirclement in Kursk Oblast
Putin also claimed that "in the coming days, a physical blockade (of Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk Oblast) will take place, meaning that no one will be able to leave at all."
"There will only be two options — surrender or perish," he said. "If we cease hostilities for 30 days, what does that mean? That everyone there will be allowed to leave without a fight? Are we supposed to let them go after they have committed numerous crimes against civilians?"
No evidence has been provided for Putin's claim about alleged Ukrainian war crimes in Kursk Oblast, and there is no independent confirmation that Ukrainian troops are at risk of being blockaded.
Everything that Putin said is either false or has no immediate confirmation.
However, Trump has picked up some of the claims. On March 14, he urged Putin to "spare" the allegedly surrounded Ukrainian troops.
Ukraine's General Staff denied Trump's claim that Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast were surrounded.
Wolff said that Putin "clearly wants the troops out to deprive Ukraine of a critical bargaining chip (Kursk Oblast), but he also would probably prefer taking as many of them as prisoners rather than allowing them to strengthen Ukraine's front lines elsewhere."
"Perhaps Putin would have been more pliable if these negotiations had happened at some other time," a Russian author living in exile who asked to remain anonymous out of security concerns told the Kyiv Independent. "But now, against the backdrop of the events in the Kursk region and the latest statements and steps of the Trump administration, he seems to have only become more confident of his future impunity."
Monitoring a ceasefire
Putin also raised the question of how violations of the ceasefire would be monitored and how the ceasefire would be enforced.
Ukraine has also called for resolving this issue and suggested that European peacekeepers be deployed to enforce the ceasefire.
However, the Kremlin has rejected the deployment of Western peacekeepers.
Wolff argued that it "makes sense from the Kremlin's perspective to ask for 'neutral' observers because it weakens any potential security guarantees that Ukraine could get from having Western peacekeepers deployed."
"Putin's statement on the ceasefire proposal does not suggest readiness for peace, or at least not for a peace that would involve any kind of compromise from the Russian side," Renz said.
Kyiv Independent journalist Kate Tsurkan contributed to this article.
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