Despite warnings from some analysts ahead of the U.S. elections that a win by the Republican nominee Donald Trump could become a “worst-case scenario” for Ukraine, the mood in Kyiv after his victory was far more mixed.

Some Ukrainians are optimistic that the president-elect could improve Kyiv’s standing amid Russian ongoing onslaught.

“I am generally up for changes,” said a Special Operations sniper with the callsign Bart, who is currently rehabilitating in Kyiv. “I believe that (President Joe) Biden and his administration are impotent,” he told the Kyiv Independent the day after the election, adding that a Trump victory could spell more decisive action.

The recurring theme among Ukrainian residents hopeful that Trump will turn the tide of Russia’s full-scale invasion was an overarching sense of fatigue with the pace of Biden’s support for Ukraine and a desire for quicker action.

After Trump’s victory in 2016, there was “huge disappointment and frustration in the air,” recalled Oleksiy Melnyk, the co-director of foreign policy and international security at the Kyiv-based think tank Razumkov Center. This year, however, he said he noticed “no big expectations, so no big disappointment.”

“Ukrainians are extremely grateful to the United States still, but at the same time, we do understand that part of our problems are because of the Biden administration’s policy of escalation management and self-restrictions,” Melnyk said.

Many Ukrainians predicted that a Kamala Harris election would not have brought about any radical change, he said, while “in the case of Trump, this unpredictability gives some people hope.”

Serhii Fursa, deputy managing director at Kyiv-based investment firm Dragon Capital, said, “I feel bad. But markets feel okay, assuming he will end the war.” Fursa described the market signal as “total uncertainty.”

Trump has repeatedly said he would end the war within 24 hours, though has not provided details on how he plans to achieve such a result.

Desire for change

Not all experts had predicted that a Trump win would be devastating for Ukraine, with some urging a “wait-and-see” attitude.

"We’re going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It’s gotta stop. Russia and Ukraine’s gotta stop," Trump said at an event in Florida on Nov. 14.

Optimism in Ukraine following the election was nonetheless cautious and came from three main reasons, said Timothy Garton Ash, an Oxford professor of European Studies, historian, and commentator.

“First, they were so disappointed with the Biden administration’s self-deterrence that they thought something else might be better,” he said.

Secondly, he added, U.S. politicians who genuinely supported Ukraine signaled that a Trump victory would work out all right.

“And the third reason is probably the most important of all,” noted Ash. “If you're fighting a war for your survival, you've got to believe that you can win. And if it looks as if your most important single ally is going to pull the rug on you, you know you're going to keep hoping and put a brave face on it that it's going to be okay.”

Still, Ash noted, he believes the optimism is “misplaced.”

“It's quite clear from the first conversations that Trump has had with people, he wants to get the issue off the table. He wants to go as fast as possible for that deal so he can get on to other things,” said Ash. “So now, optimism or pessimism focuses on the Europeans. Whether the Germans, the French, the British, the Poles and others can step into the breach.”

Oleksiy Haran, professor of comparative politics at Kyiv Mohyla Academy, however, noted that there was very little concrete data to show how widespread — or limited — support for Trump was among ordinary Ukrainians.

Without polling data, he added, it was difficult to draw conclusions about Ukrainians’ attitudes.

“I wouldn’t generalize any sentiments for Trump among ordinary Ukrainians,” Haran noted. “Clearly, there are some people who wanted Trump to win. But we cannot say that this is the majority, or even that this is a significant number of citizens of Ukraine.”

Even among Ukrainians who expressed positive sentiment about a Trump win, enthusiasm was tempered.

“The pace of decision-making (in the Biden administration), especially on critical military support, has sometimes been slower than the reality of the situation required,” said Vitalii Ivanov, a communications and investment manager at Kyiv-based UFuture.

“The Trump presidency is likely to introduce a more practical and pragmatic approach to policy making, which could lead to faster decision-making by the administration,” Ivanov said.

“Still, I would like to underline that we need to focus on solving our domestic problems and acting to make our country successful rather than worrying about who wins the U.S. election and what this or that president will do for us.”

Part of the response in Kyiv can be attributed to Ukraine’s recent and historical experience dealing with radical changes, said Melnyk from Razumkov Center. “In general, this is kind of the Ukrainian attitude: Ok, it happened. Life goes on.”

“We can speculate about more general things like the peace formula through power or force,” said Melnyk. “But we have about two months before (Trump’s) inauguration to get prepared for different scenarios. Hope is not a strategy.”

The Kyiv Independent business editor Liliane Bivings and business reporter Dominic Culverwell contributed to this report.