I believe that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Ukrainian negotiating team have already concluded that the peace deal that U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to force through simply cannot be sold to the Ukrainian public. The Trump proposal appears to require Ukraine to accept the loss of Crimea and other Russian-occupied territories, without receiving any security assurances in return. It even demands that Ukraine abandon its bid to join NATO. Given that Ukraine’s sovereignty

If you thought the United States’ first minerals deal with Ukraine was bad, the new version reads even worse. This one makes the previous deal look like charity by comparison. Check out the Financial Times piece and the link to the leaked document. Some might call it extortion; others might view it as a form of colonial exploitation. But the U.S. essentially wants to be repaid for its contributions to Ukraine's defense, seemingly before Ukraine receives any benefits. It's unclear whether this i

It looks like Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected the 30-day ceasefire proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on the war against Ukraine. According to the Financial Times, citing an unnamed senior aide to Putin, Moscow does not want a temporary ceasefire and is pushing for a long-term peace settlement that will "take into account its interests and concerns." Trump promised tough action against Russia if it failed to engage in peace talks over Ukraine. He suggested escalating military

The ambush by hired hand U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the White House Oval Office at high noon on Feb. 28 made for great theater, more 24-hour TV than diplomacy. At first, it seemed like an absolute disaster for President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine, potentially risking the withdrawal of U.S. military support and even harder days ahead in Ukrainians’ existential fight for survival against Russia. But after the dust settled on the Oval Office saloon floor, a few silver linings for Ukraine

As many others have now concluded, this year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC) was pretty remarkable. Indeed, it may have been as defining an event as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s infamous 2007 speech, which marked a shift toward a more openly hostile Russian policy toward the West. That shift led to Russia’s subsequent invasion of Georgia in 2008, its initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and ultimately, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Figures like U.S. Defense Secretary Pete

The impending Donald Trump presidency has fueled market speculation that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could be reached soon — bolstered by Trump’s campaign trail rhetoric promising to end the war within days of taking office, if not sooner. Ukrainian Eurobonds have been among the best-performing assets in emerging markets in recent months, notably alongside Lebanon, another "war or peace" play. However, achieving a durable peace deal between Ukraine and Russia may not be as simple as

Listening to the confirmation hearings of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's various appointees in Congress this week, it's becoming clear there is no meaningful grand plan from Trump to end the war in Ukraine quickly. In fact, Trump, along with figures like Keith Kellogg, the incoming Ukraine envoy, has backtracked from claiming the war could be ended in days — around the time of the inauguration — to acknowledging it may take months. This suggests they are still searching for a strategy. The

The meteoric rise of hardcore nationalist Călin Georgescu in Romania’s first-round presidential election over the weekend is nothing short of remarkable. Georgescu surged from just a few percentage points in polls weeks before the vote to claim over 23% of the electorate, defeating candidates from the country’s two most established parties. Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and former Liberal (PNL) Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă of the National Liberal Pa

It’s extraordinary how the fortunes of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have changed since they last met in 2019. Back then, at the G20 summit in Canada, Trump was embroiled in domestic legal issues, the Mueller report, and accusations of being Moscow’s candidate. This image wasn’t helped by the disastrous summit with Putin in Helsinki the previous year. The concern was that Putin had compromising material on Trump — like the infamous “pee tape” — which co

History will likely judge U.S. President Joe Biden poorly. He set himself a singular mission: to save democracy. But the risk is that his own ego may have jeopardized that very cause — not only in the U.S. but across the West. Given his age, Biden was expected to be a one-term president. His task was to defeat then-U.S. President Donald Trump in 2020, then help cultivate a new bench of young leaders who could beat Trump in 2024. But the trappings of power and his own ego seemed to get the bette

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meets tomorrow, Oct. 22, and is expected to once again debate Russia’s blacklisting. That Russia, a clear state sponsor of terrorism, hasn’t been ousted from an intergovernmental body that sets global standards to combat terrorist financing, money laundering, and related financial crimes, is incredible. It’s remarkable that Russia isn’t already on the FATF blacklist alongside North Korea and Iran. Just ask the CEO of Germany’s biggest arms manufacturer Rhe

Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance might consider himself a genius for proposing “neutrality” for Ukraine as the centerpiece of his plan to end Russia’s war. For Vance, this appears to be a true eureka moment. Unfortunately, the concept of neutral status for Ukraine is not new. Vance may not realize it, but Ukraine effectively had neutral status in 2014. Until Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its initial invasion of Donbas that year, Ukraine maintained a non-aligned status, which

Over the past week, several developments suggest that momentum might be building for peace talks in Ukraine. Firstly, Ukraine appears to have made significant concessions in negotiations with bondholders, indicating the prospect of a debt restructuring by September. This urgency only makes sense if there is an expectation that the war might end soon, allowing Ukraine to access markets to support reconstruction. Eurobonds have rallied hard since July 22, reflecting how favorable the deal is for

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s nomination of J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential running mate has sent shockwaves across the Western alliance, particularly Ukraine, which is on the front lines of Western liberal democracy’s battle against authoritarianism. Vance has been strident in his message that Europe has, for too long, free-ridden on the coattails of the U.S. security umbrella. He has also questioned whether supporting Ukraine in its war with Ru

If Ukraine is going to defeat Russia and rebuild itself after the war, it will need huge sums of money, probably exceeding what Western electorates and politicians are willing or able to provide. The good news is that there is a massive pot of non-Western money already available: the $300 billion of frozen Russian sovereign assets held in Western jurisdictions. The bad news, however, is that Western countries have been unable to agree on a shared plan of action to use these assets. Frozen Russi