I believe that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Ukrainian negotiating team have already concluded that the peace deal that U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to force through simply cannot be sold to the Ukrainian public. The Trump proposal appears to require Ukraine to accept the loss of
If you thought the United States’ first minerals deal with Ukraine was bad, the new version reads even worse. This one makes the previous deal look like charity by comparison. Check out the Financial Times piece and the link to the leaked document. Some might call it extortion; others might
It looks like Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected the 30-day ceasefire proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on the war against Ukraine. According to the Financial Times, citing an unnamed senior aide to Putin, Moscow does not want a temporary ceasefire and is pushing for a long-term peace
The ambush by hired hand U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the White House Oval Office at high noon on Feb. 28 made for great theater, more 24-hour TV than diplomacy. At first, it seemed like an absolute disaster for President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine, potentially risking the withdrawal
As many others have now concluded, this year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC) was pretty remarkable. Indeed, it may have been as defining an event as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s infamous 2007 speech, which marked a shift toward a more openly hostile Russian policy toward the West. That shift
The impending Donald Trump presidency has fueled market speculation that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could be reached soon — bolstered by Trump’s campaign trail rhetoric promising to end the war within days of taking office, if not sooner. Ukrainian Eurobonds have been among the best-performing assets in
Listening to the confirmation hearings of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's various appointees in Congress this week, it's becoming clear there is no meaningful grand plan from Trump to end the war in Ukraine quickly. In fact, Trump, along with figures like Keith Kellogg, the incoming Ukraine envoy, has backtracked
The meteoric rise of hardcore nationalist Călin Georgescu in Romania’s first-round presidential election over the weekend is nothing short of remarkable. Georgescu surged from just a few percentage points in polls weeks before the vote to claim over 23% of the electorate, defeating candidates from the country’s two
It’s extraordinary how the fortunes of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have changed since they last met in 2019. Back then, at the G20 summit in Canada, Trump was embroiled in domestic legal issues, the Mueller report, and accusations of being Moscow’s candidate.
History will likely judge U.S. President Joe Biden poorly. He set himself a singular mission: to save democracy. But the risk is that his own ego may have jeopardized that very cause — not only in the U.S. but across the West. Given his age, Biden was expected to
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meets tomorrow, Oct. 22, and is expected to once again debate Russia’s blacklisting. That Russia, a clear state sponsor of terrorism, hasn’t been ousted from an intergovernmental body that sets global standards to combat terrorist financing, money laundering, and related financial crimes,
Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance might consider himself a genius for proposing “neutrality” for Ukraine as the centerpiece of his plan to end Russia’s war. For Vance, this appears to be a true eureka moment. Unfortunately, the concept of neutral status for Ukraine is not new. Vance
Over the past week, several developments suggest that momentum might be building for peace talks in Ukraine. Firstly, Ukraine appears to have made significant concessions in negotiations with bondholders, indicating the prospect of a debt restructuring by September. This urgency only makes sense if there is an expectation that the
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s nomination of J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential running mate has sent shockwaves across the Western alliance, particularly Ukraine, which is on the front lines of Western liberal democracy’s battle against authoritarianism. Vance has been strident in his
If Ukraine is going to defeat Russia and rebuild itself after the war, it will need huge sums of money, probably exceeding what Western electorates and politicians are willing or able to provide. The good news is that there is a massive pot of non-Western money already available: the $300
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a clear signal to the West last week: China stands firmly behind Russia. Putin made his first foreign trip since his inauguration to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping on May 16. The visit came after a cabinet reshuffle in Russia the week prior,
There’s so much news and noise on the issue of using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, so I thought it useful to put out a quick Q&A on the issue. How much money are we talking about? There are around $320 billion in Russian central bank assets currently
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban sought to blackball Ukraine’s bid to formally start EU accession talks last month, arguing that Ukraine was simply not ready. Ultimately, the other 26 EU member states decided to ignore Orban’s protestations and formally agreed to the start of accession talks with Ukraine.
On July 17, 2023, Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The initiative was originally brokered in August 2022 by Turkey between Russia and Ukraine. It had been successful in facilitating the export of 32.5 million tonnes of grain out of Ukrainian ports, leaving in over 1,
As we approach the much heralded and expectant Ukraine Recovery Conference due to be held in London later this month, I cannot help but feeling a little perplexed, or even disturbed by a number of developments – is it just me? But... First, I am just amazed how quickly an industry
Editor’s Note: The following is taken from Timothy Ash's Substack blog, @tashecon blog, and republished with his permission. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. First, I think ideally Xi would want
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. Over the past month, we have seen a sudden, and somewhat surprising, volte-face by China in terms of its approach to Russia’s
(Editor's note: This op-ed was first sent out to Mr. Ash's mailing list subscribers. The Kyiv Independent is republishing it with permission.) I'm sad to say that my baseline scenario, which I have held since the US intel warnings in November, is playing out - I have warned of a
Editor’s Note: This op-ed was published by Atlantic Council. It is republished here with permission. Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved to escalate tensions with Ukraine in recent months by putting a huge and unprecedented Russian military force on its borders while launching a concerted “coercive” diplomatic effort sketching
I have certainly put myself out there as having the most hawkish view on Russia (compared to the street consensus), but I still find it difficult to see anything but escalation by Russia with Ukraine from the current postures. Why? First, I just don’t see much room for compromise
Editor’s Note: The following are the analytical notes that Timothy Ash, senior strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, distributes to his subscribers. The Kyiv Independent is reposting it with permission. It seems that “order” will be restored in Kazakhstan, but only with the help of Russian/CSTO (Collective Security Treaty
Editor’s Note: The following are the analytical notes that Timothy Ash, senior strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, distributes to his subscribers. The Kyiv Independent is reposting it with permission. Despite fighting talk from Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, it’s unclear whether he has the support of enough of the
Editor's Note: The following are the analytical notes that Timothy Ash, senior strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, distributes to his subscribers. The Kyiv Independent is reposting it with permission. With lots of focus now on the heightened military threat from Russia, I assume there will be concern about how durable
