As Czechs head to polls, Ukraine's ammunition supply is on the line
Supporters of the Ano party hold a Czech flag during a campaign rally in Prague, Czech Republic, on Sept. 30, 2025. (Tomas Tkacik / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images)
Czech voters are heading to the polls in a vote that could have significant implications for the country's foreign policy — particularly its steadfast support for Ukraine.
Latest surveys indicate that the ruling pro-Western coalition has a slim chance of retaining a majority after the parliamentary elections scheduled for Oct. 3 and 4.
The parties hoping for a takeover have not only pledged to limit or scrap military aid to Ukraine, but some have even challenged Czechia's membership in NATO and the EU.
Ano, a populist movement of oligarch and ex-Prime Minister Andrej Babis, is the front-runner set to get around 30%, according to polls.
A powerful business magnate under fraud investigation and known for opaque foreign policy views, Babis has surged in popularity as voters' concerns grow over the economy and the government's performance.
The ruling center-right Spolu (Together) coalition comes second, with a significantly lower share of about 20%. Even when combined with their current and former government partners, the centrist Mayors and the liberal Pirates, respectively, they might not reach the 101 seats needed for a majority.
Babis and the ruling coalition parties have ruled out post-election cooperation, and the small right-wing Motorists for Themselves party may not be enough for Ano to build a government, according to polls.
This opens the door for nationalists from the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and the communist-led bloc Stacilo (Enough) to align with Babis — either via a confidence and supply agreement or as coalition partners.
Experts and officials who spoke to the Kyiv Independent were split on how the election results would affect Ukraine and Czechia's future in NATO or the EU.
"If a government were to be elected in this vote that is sympathetic to Russia, Ukraine would lose a key source of military and political support," Hugo Blewett-Mundy, an expert on Russia and Eastern Europe at the Prague-based think-tank Europeum Institute, told the Kyiv Independent.
Czechia can expect "a certain foreign policy change" toward Ukraine if Ano forms a coalition government with parties such as Stacilo, SPD, and far-right Motorists for Themselves, likely with attempts to cancel the Czech ammunition initiative or transfer it under NATO supervision, according to Míla O'Sullivan, a researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague.
"Importantly, there would be less support for a just and sustainable peace in Ukraine under the Ano government, and more pressure on diplomacy and peace negotiations, and ending the war at any price," O'Sullivan told the Kyiv Independent.
Kyiv is eagerly watching the Czech elections and is concerned about its future relations with one of its staunch supporters from the early days of the full-scale war.
Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee, applauded Czechia's support, especially the Prague-led initiative to gather artillery ammunition for Ukraine "when we needed it the most."
"I'm sure that even if worst comes to worst, in the sense that if a person who comes to power will be less inclined to support Ukraine, the Czech parliament will remain pro-Ukrainian," Merezhko told the Kyiv Independent.
Czechia's ammunition initiative under threat
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Czechia has supplied tanks, multiple launch rocket systems, and helicopters to Kyiv and hosted hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees.
Prague's most significant contribution to Ukraine's defense has been its ammunition initiative.
Launched in 2024 amid Ukrainian shell shortages, the scheme allows Western countries to quickly buy artillery shells for Ukraine on global markets, with Czechia serving as an intermediary for 15 other participating countries.
In 2024, Ukraine received 1.5 million shells under the initiative, according to the Czech government. Another 1.1 million were shipped as of this September, with the goal of surpassing last year's figure by the end of 2025.
The initiative's future is now at risk, as Babis has pledged to scrap it if his party returns to power. Babis lambasted the scheme as overpriced and non-transparent in a July interview with Reuters.
The populist leader and other Ano members, including Deputy Chair Karel Havlicek, have also suggested that NATO should take the initiative instead.
The Czech government refuted Babis's accusations, calling his comments "dangerous."
"These are very dangerous issues, both for the security of the Czech Republic and its prestige abroad, because a number of other countries — our allies — are taking part in the Czech initiative," Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said.
The Czech Defense Ministry dismissed proposals to pass the initiative to NATO agencies and projects, such as its Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) or the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL).
"NATO does not and cannot buy materiel for Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement, stressing that military assistance through equipment and hardware donations "is always carried out by individual members."
Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said that halting the ammunition initiative would be a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In an interview with the Kyiv Independent last year, Lipavsky remarked that the scheme has been well-received in Ukraine and represents a "significant piece" of the country's defenses.
The Czech-led ammunition initiative is felt on the battlefield. After an August phone call with Fiala, President Volodymyr Zelensky praised it as having "helped save many lives and strengthen our positions."
Even in Russia, some voices acknowledged the initiative's importance.
Talking to pro-government outlet Lenta, Russian commentator Vadim Trukhachev admitted that the scheme is "unfortunately" effective, despite efforts by Russian diplomacy to "mitigate" its impact.
While agreeing that the Czech ammunition initiative has been "extremely important" for Kyiv, Ukrainian lawmaker Merezhko said that it would not be a critical loss even if it were scrapped, as long as key players, such as Germany, France, and the U.K., continue their support.
"They will immediately step in, and they will make up this gap," Merezhko said.
Pavel Havlicek, a research fellow at the Association for International Affairs in Prague, said that Babis's steps, if elected, are still unclear since he believes the former prime minister would be "rather cautious to make any radical moves."
Klara Votavova, a Czech journalist and a researcher at the Europeum Institute, agrees that "Ano is not pro-Russian, not against raising the Czech military budget, etc., despite
sometimes being accused of that."
"The risk is that if Andrej Babis's government relies on SPD or Stacilo, Czechia will cut the military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Kyiv," as well as sanctions against Russia and Ukraine's EU membership prospects, she told the Kyiv Independent.
Radicals challenge Western ties
Far-left and far-right parties vying for influence in the next government are challenging not only the ammunition initiative, but also Czechia's entire geopolitical orientation.
SPD and Stacilo have both called for a halt to military assistance to Ukraine and demanded a law on a referendum that would allow Czechs to vote on whether to remain in NATO and the EU.
Stacilo has been particularly critical of the alliance, with Katerina Konecna, chair of the Communist Party and one of the bloc's leaders, referring to NATO as an "aggressive pact."
During a recent debate, only SPD Chair Tomio Okamura and Konecna dodged a question on whether they view Russia as a security threat — a position backed even by Ano.
Babis, an ally of Hungary's Viktor Orban, has often criticized the EU and toyed with anti-Ukrainian narratives — namely regarding Ukrainian refugees — but has asserted Ano is a pro-Western party.
It was Babis's previous government that expelled dozens of Russian diplomats in 2021 over suspicions that Moscow's agents blew up a Czech ammunition depot seven years prior.
Havlicek, research fellow at the Association for International Affairs, said that he believes that the radical parties running in the elections, both in the far-right and far-left, have "a clear agenda" of backing away from NATO and the EU and rebuilding ties with Moscow.
However, Babis has ruled out a referendum on NATO and EU membership. He has also vowed not to form a government together with the communists — though last year, Babis said he did not apply this label to Stacilo.
Even if Ano returns to power with the support of radical groups, shifting Czechia's geopolitical orientation is no easy feat.
Blewett-Mundy notes that any "government proposal to hold a referendum will need to have the support of at least two-fifths of parliament or two-fifths of the Senate and be submitted to the president."
As only the president can call a referendum and no major party backs such a move, it is unlikely to succeed, the expert adds.
The Senate, the Czech parliament's upper chamber, is elected separately and is currently dominated by pro-Western parties.
Czechia's president, former NATO General Petr Pavel, has repeatedly warned against attempts to shift the country's geopolitical orientation or its democratic system.
Vojtech Bohac, a Czech political analyst and editor-in-chief at local media Voxpot, ruled out the possibility of withdrawing from NATO and the EU, especially with a president like Pavel, who feels "really strongly" about being part of the security alliance.
"During the next four years, if something really substantial doesn't happen in the world, I don't think the possibility that we will leave NATO or EU (exists)," Bohac told the Kyiv Independent.
O'Sullivan agreed that Czechia can expect foreign policy continuity regarding pro-EU and pro-NATO orientation.
"Babiš is an oligarch who has greatly benefited from the Western structures and European funds," O'Sullivan said.
"Even potential coalition government or parliamentary support from extremists would not make this orientation negotiable."
Note from the author:
Hi, this is Martin Fornusek, one of the authors of the article. At the Kyiv Independent, our team strives to bring you insights from European politics and their impact on Ukraine's struggle against Russia.
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