With the Polish presidential elections just two months away, two of the country's leading right-wing candidates have become increasingly antagonistic toward Ukraine and its leadership.
Kyiv can ill afford another hostile head of state among its key partners, as U.S. President Donald Trump's foreign policy shift has already thrown the pro-Ukraine coalition into disarray.
Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, a progressive mayor of Warsaw backed by the key ruling party, Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Platform, remains a clear favorite, polling at around 35%. He faces two opponents from the right, both of whom stand a chance to advance to the runoff scheduled for June 1.
The conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), which led the government from 2015 to 2023 and has an ally in incumbent President Andrzej Duda, has tapped relatively unknown historian Karol Nawrocki as its candidate in the upcoming elections.
Polling at 24%, Nawrocki is only about five percentage points ahead of Slawomir Mentzen, one of the leaders of the far-right Confederation coalition.
Both men have made headlines by public spats with Ukrainian officials and denounced Kyiv as ungrateful for the support Warsaw has provided. Their popularity potentially signals a growing acceptance of anti-Ukraine sentiments in Poland as Russia's full-scale war entered its fourth year.
The unresolved historical grievances and constant economic disputes between Kyiv and Warsaw have forced even pro-Ukrainian politicians to tread carefully when it comes to dealings with Ukraine.
Yuliia Taradiuk
Liberal Trzaskowski has made it clear that "military support for Ukraine is in Poland's national interest" as "Ukrainians are fighting for our (Poland's) freedom."
"But we need a sincere conversation about how we see the future of our relations, a sincere conversation about how Ukrainians should take our sensitivity to historical issues seriously, a sincere conversation about how negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the EU will be very difficult and, unfortunately, will last for many years," he then added.
Karol Nawrocki
Nawrocki, 42, is a historian who heads the Institute of National Remembrance, a state agency that studies the crimes committed during World War II and Poland's communist era.
This professional background seems to have shaped his political views, which are marked by clear anti-communism and distaste for Russian expansionism.
The conservative politician, who is on Russia's wanted list over the demolition of Soviet memorials in Poland, recently suggested cutting diplomatic ties with Moscow, as "maintaining diplomatic ties with a barbaric state is not good for Poland."
But that doesn't mean the historian-turned-politician is pro-Ukraine.
While pledging that Polish support for Kyiv will continue if he is elected, Nawrocki signaled he wants to see more gratitude for the assistance provided to both Ukrainian front-line soldiers and refugees.
Nawrocki also declared that Ukraine would not be able to enter NATO or the EU without resolving the issue of the Volyn massacres — a sentiment shared by many Polish politicians across the aisle.
"Today, I do not see Ukraine in either structure, neither in the European Union nor in NATO, until those important civilizational issues are resolved," Nawrocki said in January in reference to the World War II-era massacre of Poles by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army in the present-day Volyn Oblast of Ukraine.
The Volyn massacres, which saw tens of thousands of Poles living in Nazi-occupied Volyn killed and thousands of Ukrainians killed in reprisal attacks in 1943-1944, remain the most contentious topic in Polish-Ukrainian relations.
"Unfortunately, Ukraine has been playing the role of a 'scapegoat' for Polish politicians for quite some time now, a trend that began during the 2023 parliamentary campaign."
When Tusk hailed a joint breakthrough in efforts to exhume Polish victims in modern-day Ukraine, Nawrocki dismissed the announcement as an "unnecessary trick."
Some of Nawrocki's sharpest comments were aimed personally at President Volodymyr Zelensky.
When nearly all European politicians — including Tusk — rushed to support Zelensky after his heated Oval Office exchange with Trump, Nawrocki, as well as the rest of PiS, backed the U.S. president instead.
Nawrocki even said that the subsequent pause on U.S. military support was the "result of President Zelensky's lack of gratitude and lack of ability to conduct international policy."
This bellicose rhetoric may seem at odds with PiS, whose past government led the charge in providing Ukraine with arms and other support during the full-scale war. But as the elections are coming near and the Ukraine fatigue is setting in, the conservative party may be shifting gears.
"I suspect these are his (Nawrocki's) original views that were muted at the beginning because of the party policy, but now, because they are fighting for the same part of the electorate (as the far-right), he was 'let loose,'" Polish political scientist Pawel Borkowski told the Kyiv Independent.
Nawrocki's main opponent for second place, and thus a potential contender to face Trzaskowski in the runoff, is far-right Mentzen. His Confederation and PiS are likely to battle over rural voters and agrarian workers in the upcoming vote.
Farmers, who fear competition from their Ukrainian counterparts, represent a vocal part of the electorate, as their numerous protests and border blockades have demonstrated.
"Unfortunately, Ukraine has been playing the role of a 'scapegoat' for Polish politicians for quite some time now, a trend that began during the 2023 parliamentary campaign," Yevhen Mahda, executive director of the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv, told the Kyiv Independent.
Surveys reveal that the Polish public has grown more skeptical toward Ukraine and, specifically, Ukrainian refugees when compared to 2022.
According to a February poll commissioned by the Mieroszewski Center, 49% of Poles favored continued military support for Ukraine, yet only 40% supported assistance for refugees.
"The motive that Ukraine is not grateful enough is very present" in Polish society, said Aleksandra Kusztal, a political scientist at the Jan Kochanowski University of Kielce, in comments for the Kyiv Independent.
"Some elements (which) are typical for the Russian propaganda, Russian disinformation, are becoming more and more popular," such as the supposed negative impact of Ukrainians on Poland's social and healthcare system, she added.
Tim Zadorozhnyy
Slawomir Mentzen
A devout libertarian who voiced support for Polish exit from the EU, 38-year-old entrepreneur and tax advisor Mentzen has become one of Poland's most popular far-right politicians.
His apt use of the TikTok social network and public campaigning make it conceivable that he, not Nawrocki, will face Trzaskowski in the second round.
The Confederation, co-chaired by Mentzen, has long been seen as the only relevant force in Polish politics that could be described as openly hostile toward Ukraine.
During the parliamentary elections in 2023, during which the far-right significantly underperformed, Confederation said that Ukraine should pay for all assistance provided by Poland — an argument eerily echoing those coming from today's Washington.
However, emulating far-right populists across Europe, the Confederation has sought to purge its most controversial elements. Two of the most overtly pro-Russian figures, Janusz Korwin-Mikke and antisemite Grzegorz Braun, have been suspended or expelled from the coalition.
Mentzen himself has formally denounced Russian aggression and has largely shaped his Ukraine rhetoric along more transactional lines.
"Yes, it is profitable for us for Ukraine to defend itself against Russia, which is why Poles help Ukraine," Mentzen told Polsat. "Not out of sympathy, but because it is simply profitable for us."
"We send weapons to Ukraine, we send money, we send social benefits, we provide medical treatment for free in Poland to Ukrainians who do not even have medical insurance, while Poles have to pay, and in return we receive slander, they insult us and show absolutely no gratitude."
He also said that the West must reach some kind of an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as "there is no force on the horizon that will drive Putin out of Ukraine."
In some cases, Mentzen does not hesitate to push further. One episode that caught the attention of both Polish and Ukrainian media was his public spat with Lviv Mayor Andrii Sadovyi.
After visiting the western Ukrainian city on Feb. 24, Mentzen published a video near the monument to Stepan Bandera, calling the late Ukrainian nationalist a "terrorist" and accused Ukraine of "worshipping criminals."
Bandera, assassinated by the KGB in 1959, led the radical wing of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and organized the assassination of Polish Interior Minister Bronislaw Pieracki.
Sadovyi lashed out against Mentzen, calling him a "pro-Russian politician with a Polish passport." Mentzen then named Lviv, which was part of Poland in the interwar period, a "culturally Polish city," a statement with explosive connotations during the ongoing Russian occupation of one-fifth of Ukraine.
Experts largely agree that this was a public stunt rather than a serious attempt at territorial revisionism, a topic with almost non-existent appeal in Polish politics.
"It was a pure provocation," Kusztal commented, calling Mentzen's campaign nevertheless "very strongly connected with Russian propaganda."
Kusztal presented Mentzen's anti-Ukraine rhetoric as "something quite new in his political biography." The expert suggested it could be a tactic to steal voters from Braun, who announced his own candidacy.
According to Borkowski, Mentzen wanted to strengthen his appeal across the various right-wing groups that make up the Confederation.
"Slawomir Mentzen's conflict with Andrii Sadovyi was staged and election-driven," Mahda concurred. "However, this does not negate the fact that historical policy plays a much greater role in public discourse in Poland than it does in Ukraine."
Oleg Sukhov
Note from the author:
Hi, this is Martin Fornusek.
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