The share of Ukrainian refugees planning to return home has fallen to 43% by the end of 2024, compared to 74% in December 2022, according to a study by Ukrainian think tank the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) published on Feb. 21.
Around 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad, according to the report.
The mass exodus peaked in March 2022, when 2.5 million people fled Ukraine in a matter of weeks following Russia's full-scale invasion. The outflow has since slowed, with about 300,000 people leaving Ukraine last year.
Most refugees come from Ukraine's northern and eastern regions, with Kyiv accounting for 18% of those surveyed, followed by Kharkiv (13.8%) and Donetsk (9.5%) oblasts, the study found.
The CES projects that between 1.7 and 2.7 million Ukrainians may permanently remain abroad, potentially reducing Ukraine's annual GDP by 5.1% to 7.8%.
"A decrease in those willing to come back home may indicate that some refugees who initially planned to return in early 2024 have already done so," said Dariia Mykhailyshyna, co-author of the study and senior economist at CES.
"Yet, Ukrainians abroad are increasingly adapting, shifting their opinions towards staying abroad."
The main obstacles to return are of both military and economic nature, including ongoing security risks, destroyed housing, low living standards, and challenges in finding employment in Ukraine, according to CES.
Women and children remain the predominant demographic among refugees. Adult women make up the largest group at 44%, down from 50% in early 2024. The latest study pointed to a growing proportion of men among Ukrainians living abroad.
"The profile of Ukrainian refugees has changed significantly since late 2022. While women and children comprised the vast majority at the start of the war, the proportion of adult men has risen substantially," said Mykhailyshyna.
The study found that women are 31% more likely to want to return than men, and those working remotely for Ukrainian companies are 67% more likely to return than unemployed refugees.
Those with higher pre-war incomes are nearly three times more likely to return than those with the lowest incomes. The study found that refugees in Poland are 90% more likely to want to return than those in Germany.
Most Ukrainian refugees have settled in Germany (20%) and Poland (18%), while the United States hosts only 5.4% of all refugees. Together with Canada, North American countries have taken in less than 10% of Ukrainian refugees, with most finding refuge in European countries, CES wrote.
By the end of November 2024, approximately 4.2 million Ukrainians held temporary protection status in EU countries, with the largest numbers in Germany (1.2 million), Poland (988,000), and the Czech Republic (385,000).
Chris York
