What to expect from Zelensky-Trump meeting as Ukraine hopes for Tomahawks

Editor's note: The story was updated with additional details.

President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to meet his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, in Washington on Oct. 17 as Kyiv seeks to secure more robust support for the war with Russia.

With Trump warming up to Ukraine, there are hopes that the meeting – his sixth with Zelensky since taking office – could lead to the deliveries of the much-coveted Tomahawks.

Although the White House publicly floated arming Ukraine with the powerful long-range missiles, observers remain cautious, citing Trump’s "mercurial" nature.

Moreover, Trump held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin before his meeting with Zelensky, announcing a new summit with the Russian leader in Budapest. Previously, Trump said he would discuss with Putin sending Tomahawks to Ukraine before making a final decision.

Yet there is hope that the Trump-Zelensky meeting will build on the positive rapport the two leaders have built in recent weeks, a stark contrast to the tense first months of Trump's presidency.

What Ukraine hopes for

Both leaders hinted that military support will top the agenda.

Zelensky said he held what he called "productive" phone calls with Trump on Oct. 11 and 12, discussing Ukraine's air defenses and long-range capabilities.

The Ukrainian leader later said he hopes to discuss these "sensitive" topics with Trump more in detail and in person.

Kyiv hopes to enhance its ability to target Russian energy infrastructure and increase Moscow's economic costs, while air defenses are a crucial factor in repelling intensifying Russian aerial strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid.

Initially reluctant to ramp up arms supplies to Ukraine, Trump now seems more open to using military deliveries as a pressure tactic against Putin.

In September, the Trump administration approved the first weapons deliveries to Ukraine funded by NATO allies under the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL).

After meeting Zelensky in New York on Sept. 23, Trump surprisingly declared that, with European support, Ukraine is capable of reclaiming all of its territory.

Zelensky plans to discuss Ukraine's desire to "go offensive" in the war during the upcoming meeting, Trump said on Oct. 15, days after the U.S. president voiced readiness to ship Tomahawks to Kyiv if Putin does not agree to end hostilities.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth added to the speculation on Oct. 15 with a cryptic remark that Washington is ready to "impose costs on Russia" in ways "only the U.S. can do."

The Tomahawk is a subsonic long-range missile capable of striking targets at a range of 1,600 to 2,500 kilometers (1,000-1600 miles). Providing the weapons would constitute a "qualitatively new stage of escalation," Putin has warned.

Nevertheless, whether any announcement will be made remains uncertain, says Volodymyr Dubovyk, an expert on U.S.-Ukraine relations at Odesa National University's Center for International Studies.

"It is important to understand the terms of such a decision if it is made. For example, how many of the missiles will be provided, or how soon," he said.

Zelensky previously suggested that the Tomahawks could be financed through the planned "mega deal," a major agreement on the purchase of U.S. arms.

While Dubovyk says he is "cautiously optimistic about the visit," Ukrainian lawmaker Volodymyr Ariev remarked that Trump's decisions are usually independent of Zelensky's persuasive efforts.

"Trump does not hold strong beliefs. His volatile positions suggest that any statement he makes should not be taken as final," Ariev told the Kyiv Independent.

Arms supplies may not be the only topic under discussion. A Ukrainian delegation led by Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko has been in the U.S. since earlier this week to discuss Ukraine's energy security and peace talks.

Brokering peace in Ukraine remains one of Trump's declared foreign policy goals. According to Kyiv, this will be possible only through increased pressure on Moscow.

Trump’s shifting tune on Ukraine

Recent months have seen Trump adopt a harsher tone toward Putin. The U.S. president voiced frustration over unrelenting Russian attacks against Ukrainian cities and mocked Russia’s war prowess.

In turn, Trump’s Sept. 23 meeting with Zelensky was a far cry from the Ukrainian president's disastrous visit in February, which ended in a televised spat between the leaders.

"There seems to be much better chemistry between (Trump and Zelensky), more than it was ever before," Dubovyk says. However, he adds, this does not mean Trump is "firmly shifting to Ukraine’s side."

The U.S. president has made sudden U-turns on Russia and Ukraine before. In August, Trump threatened Putin with massive sanctions, only to end up rolling out the red carpet for him on U.S. soil.

How the next week's meeting between U.S. and Russian advisors and the subsequent Trump-Putin summit in Hungary impacts the peace process remains to be seen.

"Trump is mercurial," Daniel Hamilton, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution, told the Kyiv Independent. Despite edging toward a more robust support for Ukraine, Trump "has yet to really pressure Putin personally," he added.

Trump's recurring promises of sanctions against Russia always come with the condition that European allies act first, an approach that, according to some experts, suggests he seeks to shift the blame for inaction.

"In this situation, Ukraine has only one viable strategy: to understand Trump’s character and remain firm on its declared position," Ariev said.

Note from the author:

Hi, this is Martin Fornusek, the author of this article.

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