For those with a vested interest in Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump's first week in office was a bit of a rollercoaster.
His inauguration speech on Jan. 21 made no explicit mention of Ukraine or Russia's full-scale invasion, prompting some to question if either was anywhere near a priority for the new president.
During his first presidential term, Trump famously praised Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has also repeatedly criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine during the election campaign ahead of his second term, prompting many in Ukraine and the West to worry about the future of assistance from Ukraine’s biggest donor.
"I can’t say if things will be better for us (now Trump has been inaugurated) because Trump is definitely not a sympathizer of Ukraine," “Volvo,” a Ukrainian military medic told the Kyiv Independent at the time.
But a few hours later, comments from Trump began to give an indication that he was at least open to taking a hard line on Russia, saying he would likely impose additional sanctions against Moscow if Putin fails to negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine.
"Sounds likely," he said responding to a question from a reporter in the White House.
While the off-hand comment wasn't anything close to a policy announcement, on Jan. 22, Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social and came out guns blazing, saying he would be doing Putin "a very big favor" by helping end the war.
"If a deal is not reached, I will have no other choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and other participating countries," he said.
"We can do it the easy way or the hard way."
"We can do it the easy way or the hard way," he said in reference to negotiating an end to the war, adding, "the easy way is always better."
While stressing that he is "not looking to hurt Russia" and maintaining that he has "always had a very good relationship" with Putin, Trump added, "It's time to make a deal. No more lives should be lost."
Setting ‘psychological dynamic’
Ambassador Kurt Volker, who served as U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations in 2017-2019, during Trump’s previous tenure, told the Kyiv Independent: "These are very strong statements coming from Trump.”
"And they do a couple of things. They establish that Putin is the one who has to act — it's not both sides that need to show restraint. This is all 'Russia has to stop the war, Putin has to stop,'" he said.
"Secondly, it's establishing that Putin is in a weak position and Trump is in a strong position, which is also very good."
Trump doubled down on his position while appearing via videolink at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan 23.
Asked if there would be a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia by the time of next year's World Economic Forum, he replied: "Well you'll have to ask Russia. Ukraine is ready to make a deal."
Volker said such comments were important to "get that psychological dynamic straight" as Trump defines his relationship with Putin before peace negotiations begin, adding that the fact Putin later responded showed it worked.
Speaking to reporters on Jan. 24, Putin claimed Russia was ready for talks with Trump on ending the war in Ukraine, but made a clumsy attempt to shift blame for them not starting onto President Volodymyr Zelensky.
He pointed out a decree signed by Zelensky in October 2022 which declared negotiations with Putin "impossible" while leaving the door open to discussions with Russia under different leadership. Zelensky signed the decree after Russia announced the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions, all of which it only partially controlled.
"How can negotiations be resumed if they are officially banned?" Putin asked.
"This is a deflection by Putin," Volker said, adding his claim about being ready to talk was a "lie."
"He knows very well that Zelensky has said he wants to end the war," he added.
Martin Fornusek
In Ukraine, Trump's strong stance on Russia has been welcomed, but cautiously, tempered by an expectation that Putin has little desire to enter peace negotiations regardless of the threats coming from the U.S.
"The problem is not Trump, his ideas or expectations, the problem is Putin," Oleksandr Merezhko, the chair of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.
Merezhko said he expected Trump to soon become "disillusioned" with Putin when he doesn't respond to the threats.
"I hope that Trump will have to take a firmer stance on Putin, as soon as he realizes that Putin has no intention to negotiate in earnest," he added.
While Trump may have quietly discarded his claim that he could end Russia's full-scale invasion "in 24 hours," his comments during his first week still indicate he believes he can end the war relatively swiftly — but time may actually be on Putin's side.
Oil leverage
Aside from the threats about sanctions, Trump also said at Davos he would ask the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to lower the price of oil, saying it would end Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine "immediately."
OPEC consists of 12 countries including Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, which collectively account for around 30% of the global oil supply. By agreeing to lower or raise the amount of oil they all produce, OPEC can dramatically affect the global oil price.
Another Trump policy — declaring open season on drilling for U.S. oil and gas — could also potentially push down prices and box out Russian oil.
More sanctions and lower global oil prices would deplete Russia's main source of revenue that it uses to fund its war in Ukraine, but a recent analysis in Foreign Policy suggested any effects would likely take months to significantly hamper the Kremlin's war machine.
On the streets of Kyiv, there is little expectation that Trump will be able to end the war swiftly, or even that he can do it at all, and that ultimately, it is still up to Ukrainians to fight for it themselves.
"For now, it's too early to judge (Trump)," 18-year-old student Mykola told the Kyiv Independent on Jan. 28, adding: "I think we can only bring peace by our own actions."
"The only thing that can affect Russia is that we will make our shells and destroy the Russians directly at the front."
According to Volker, the next step for the Trump administration will be a visit to Kyiv and other European capitals by Keith Kellogg, Trump's peace envoy for Ukraine, during which he will be "gathering perspectives and information" which he will then brief his boss on.
"I think the best advice for the Trump team is to do exactly what Trump is doing — keep it simple and don't get bogged down in these side issues that Russia will throw up like saying we need elections in Ukraine," he said.
"Putin will just make stuff up and we should not negotiate on that at all. We should say it's none of his business, just stop the war. And what we do is we get a ceasefire. And then we have to be strong so that we deter future attacks," he added.
Additional reporting by Linda Hourani.
Chris York
