Ukraine needs billions in US arms as Greenland dispute pushes alliance to breaking point, documents reveal
Launchers of the Bundeswehr’s Patriot air defense system stand on a snow-covered field near Miączyn, Poland, on April 3, 2023. (Sebastian Kahnert / picture alliance via Getty Images)
Ukraine needs at least $27 billion in military equipment from non-European Union sources in 2026, highlighting the bloc's dependence on American technology to support Kyiv, negotiating documents show.
The EU is set to spend 60 billion euros ($70 billion) on Ukraine's defense as part of a larger 90-billion-euro support package agreed in December, an unprecedented sum that European leaders hope will reboot its military industrial base and support the Ukrainian military’s continued operation during 2026.
But the union is either unable to match U.S.-made systems or to produce them fast enough, according to documents seen by the Kyiv Independent, including key air defense technology like Patriot air defense systems, and munitions and spare parts for Ukraine’s fleet of F-16 jets.
Germany and the Netherlands argue that as much as a quarter of the cash earmarked for defense should go to weapons produced outside the EU, allowing Ukraine to purchase these key capabilities from non-EU sources, most importantly the United States.
The EU embassy in Kyiv neither confirmed nor denied the $27 billion figure, saying it was for Ukraine to assess, but stressed that the "EU is by far the largest and most stable financial partner of Ukraine." Ukraine's new Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov did not reply to a request for comment.
Ukraine’s dependence on U.S. weaponry lays bare the difficult situation that EU countries face, dependent on American technology to back Kyiv even as U.S. President Donald Trump's increasingly brazen statements on Greenland thrust the transatlantic alliance into its biggest crisis in decades.
Trump on Jan. 17 said the U.S. would impose tariffs on a number of European countries, after they publicly supported Denmark in the face of American threats to annex Greenland. The EU is reportedly preparing to put tariffs on 93 billion euros worth of goods in response.
Asked whether the EU would adjust its policy toward the U.S. amid threats toward Greenland and new tariffs, the EU Embassy in Kyiv declined to comment, but said the EU was "working side by side with the U.S. to ensure Ukraine has robust and credible security guarantees to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity."
The transatlantic spat comes at a critical time for Ukraine. The country is experiencing the coldest winter in many years, with temperatures dropping below minus 20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit).
Russia has methodically destroyed vast swathes of the country's civilian energy infrastructure with an almost daily barrage of missile and drone strikes, which has brought the country to the brink of a humanitarian crisis.
"The consequences of Russian strikes and worsening weather conditions are severe," President Zelensky said on Jan. 14, pleading for Ukraine’s allies to step up deliveries of air defense systems and interceptors. The Ukrainian president also revealed that some of Ukraine’s air defense systems had completely run out of ammunition.
Zelensky said on Jan. 16 that a major air defense aid package had arrived in Ukraine, but Russia is expected to carry out additional large-scale strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure that would further deplete air defense stocks.
Ukraine has repeatedly stated that American-made Patriot systems and their associated air defense interceptors cannot be substituted. Particularly valuable are the sophisticated Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, Ukraine’s most effective defense against ballistic missiles.
While a joint French-Italian system known as SAMP/T also offers anti-ballistic missile capability, not a single unit has been produced since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 due to a cumbersome production agreement, according to a forthcoming study from the Institute for European Policymaking seen by the Kyiv Independent.
Additionally, in real world conditions, Ukraine’s SAMP/T batteries have not proven as effective as the American-made Patriot PAC-3 at intercepting Russian ballistic missiles. Ukraine also heavily relies on U.S. signals intelligence and U.S. satellites, for which Kyiv’s European allies do not have comparable capabilities.
According to EU estimates from November 2025, Ukraine needs 135 billion euros ($155 billion) over 2026–2027 in combined military and budgetary assistance.
The agreement in December, known as the Ukraine Support Loan, covers two-thirds of that amount.
