Hungary elections, new US strikes on Iran — key events for Ukraine next week
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Editor's note: This article is a shortened on-site version of KI Insights' public newsletter, The Week Ahead, covering events from April 6-12. Sign up here to start your week with an agenda of Ukraine-related events delivered directly to your inbox every week.
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The parliamentary elections in Hungary, scheduled for 12 April, could reshape the trajectory of developments in Ukraine. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has built his campaign around criticizing Volodymyr Zelensky and has blocked several key EU decisions in support of Ukraine, now risks losing the election. According to recent polls, his party, Fidesz, is trailing the opposition Tisza Party by 19–23%.
Ahead of Hungary's election, US Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Budapest on 7–8 April, in a move widely seen as signaling support for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. In the run-up to the vote, U.S. President Donald Trump has also publicly backed Orbán, describing him as "a truly strong and powerful leader with a proven track record of delivering phenomenal results."
Any potential transfer of power is likely to be protracted and contested. Over Orbán's 16 years in office, Hungary's democratic institutions have eroded, while key parts of the state apparatus have been reshaped to consolidate the position of the ruling Fidesz party.
However, a shift in Hungary's political course would increase the likelihood of unlocking a €90 billion EU loan package for Ukraine, advancing a new round of anti-Russian sanctions, and moving forward with negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU.
Although no major breakthroughs in peace negotiations with Russia are expected, attention will focus on President Volodymyr Zelensky's Easter ceasefire proposal. During a call with U.S. negotiators on April 1, he suggested a bilateral ceasefire, including strikes on energy infrastructure, over the Easter holiday period. Orthodox Easter falls on 12 April this year.
Russia has reportedly rejected the proposal; however, it will be important to monitor statements and reactions from the United States. Notably, no previous proposals for a bilateral ceasefire have been successfully upheld.
Meanwhile, intensified Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are expected to continue into next week. The increase in attacks comes amid a recent surge in Russia's oil revenues, driven by the broader geopolitical context, including the war in Iran. After an exceptional spike in crude oil sales the previous week, the situation has now shifted sharply in the opposite direction. As a result, Moscow's oil income declined by more than $1 billion over the week.
At the beginning of next week, on 6 April, the 10-day pause in strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, announced by Donald Trump, is set to expire. The US president has stated that the war in Iran is "nearing completion," while also signaling the possibility of renewed, more intensive strikes over the next two to three weeks.
The United States continues to urge its partners to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could help ease the ongoing oil crisis. Amid a lack of support, Trump has indicated a willingness to reconsider U.S. commitments to NATO, arguing that Washington is not receiving a proportional response from its allies following its assistance to Ukraine.
While the fate of the €90 billion loan remains unresolved, the European Union is expected to transfer €1.4 billion in revenue generated from immobilized Russian assets to Ukraine in the near term, with the funds earmarked to support the public sector. Approximately 95% of the financing will be channeled through the Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism, while the remaining 5% will be allocated via the European Peace Facility.
Plenary sessions of the Verkhovna Rada will take place from April 7 to 10. The main expectations center on draft laws required under the Ukraine Facility and the IMF cooperation program.
In addition, ahead of the session, the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Ukraine's Integration into the European Union will meet on 7 April. The agenda includes discussions on draft legislation concerning the ethics of Members of Parliament and amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine.
Government draft laws proposing certain tax increases in line with IMF requirements have not yet been registered in parliament. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether they can be adopted as early as next week.
Can propaganda be treated as a weapon of war? In our latest Ukraine Insights episode, we speak with international lawyer Anna Vyshniakova about the "Words That Kill" study — one of the first empirical investigations into how Russian propaganda shapes the mindset and actions of soldiers. Available on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.
Events and Milestones:
Next week:
- 14 April. Online event: Leveraging Logistics for Ukraine. Discuss logistics updates, request or offer humanitarian aid, share resources, and talk about what's happening in the region. Register here.
- 22 April, Lviv/Online. Hybrid event: Recovery Construction Forum Ukraine 3.0. Forum brings together government representatives along with the construction community to discuss current challenges in the industry and effective coordination efforts towards the reconstruction of Ukraine. Register here.
- 22-23 April, Brussels. Offline event: EU-Ukraine Business Summit 2026. The Summit brings together policymakers, businesses, and financial institutions in Brussels for two days of high-level discussions, round tables, and interactive workshops. Register here.
- 27 April, London. Offline event: UK-UA Defense Tech Forum. The event enhances collaboration among Ukrainian, British, and international defense tech firms, alongside the VC community, to scale up production and accelerate R&D and innovation. Register here.
- 30 April, Online. Budgetary Permacrisis: Ukraine's fiscal challenges in 2026. KI Insights monthly briefing that includes a presentation by Research Editor, Alex Fynn, and the Kyiv Independent Economics Reporter, Luca Léry Moffat. More details here. Register here.
- 12-14 May, Kyiv. Online event: UA Energy – International Exhibition and Conference on Ukraine's Sustainable Energy Recovery. The event brings together government, investors, financial institutions, and technology leaders to build a modern, independent energy system for Ukraine. More details & tickets here.
If you have an upcoming event that you would like featured in our newsletter, please get in touch via insights@kyivindependent.com.
