Editor's note: This article is an on-site version of KI Insights' The Week Ahead newsletter covering events from Feb. 17-Feb. 23. Sign up here to start your week with an agenda of Ukraine-related events, delivered directly to your inbox every Sunday.
European leaders will hold an emergency summit in Paris on Feb. 17 to discuss security and Ukraine’s peace negotiation in the wake of the alarming (though not surprising) statements by US figures at the Munich Security Conference. The session will include leaders of the main European states, NATO, and the European Council and Commission. It remains unclear whether President Zelensky will be invited.
US President Donald Trump and his administration members’ comments on Ukraine in the past week have acted as a (incredibly belated) wake-up call for European leaders who now appear to be scrambling to maintain any relevance in the negotiations – and to define what a post-US security architecture on the continent could look like.
Trump’s special Ukraine-Russia envoy Keith Kellogg will visit Kyiv on Feb. 20. He was expected in Kyiv twice before, but never arrived. After meeting with the Ukrainian delegation in Munich, he will head to Brussels then Kyiv, providing a fig leaf for the Trump administration’s dismissive stance on the European and Ukrainian roles in peace talks.
The main (previously planned) diplomatic event will be the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Johannesburg on Feb. 20-21, with South Africa hosting as the current G20 chair. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced via X, that he will not participate in the meeting (also, he may be in Saudi Arabia), following President Donald Trump’s recent threat to withdraw financial support from the country.
Relations between the U.S. and South Africa have sharply deteriorated since Trump’s inauguration on account of what the US government (especially South Africa-born Elon Musk) describes as “racist policies” – notably the land expropriation law – towards minority white Afrikaaners (whom they have offered refugee status in the US).
On Feb. 23, Germany will hold a snap election with Christian Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU leading in polls. The latter have signaled stronger backing for Ukraine, but would need a coalition, likely with Olaf Scholz’s SPD (which has been hesitant, wary of “escalation”; reports suggest this was driven by Scholz himself, though). The far-right and Ukraine-sceptic AfD is on the rise; in total, a third of votes could go to extremist (and anti-Ukraine) parties.
For Ukraine, Germany’s political instability raises concerns over future aid and military commitments. Although Berlin has allocated €37 bn in support, key weapons like Taurus missiles remain undelivered. The election will determine whether Germany steps into a leadership role or remains mostly reactive.
Meanwhile, speculation continues over potential government changes in Ukraine, particularly regarding Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Various sources suggest that his position may be at risk as of this week, amid an open anti-corruption probe and investigation of possible abuse of power.
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Events and Milestones:
- Feb. 17-19 - Defense Tech Innovations Forum 2025 (09:00 - 18:00 EET, Kyiv). The forum hosted by Brave1, will unite Ukrainian and international manufacturers, investors, defense technology experts, and representatives of innovative defense agencies of partner nations. Register here.
- Feb. 19-20 - Urban Conference: Liberty, Equality, Innovations - Digital Tools and Data for Ukrainian Recovery (Hybrid format, Kyiv & Hamburg). A two-day conference on leveraging digital tools and innovations for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. Register here.
- Feb. 19-21- KyivBuild Ukraine - International Building Exhibition (10:30 EET Kyiv, Ukraine). A leading event showcasing materials ,equipment, and technologies for construction professionals. Register here.
- Feb. 20 - Ukrainian Refugees After Three Years Abroad (15:00 EET Kyiv/Zoom). CES economists will present the results of the fourth wave of sociological surveys on the status and attitudes of Ukrainian migrants, conducted in November-December 2024 by the Info Sapiens research agency. Register here.
- Feb. 20 - Commemoration of the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred. This day honors those who lost their lives during the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. Ceremonies and memorial events are expected to take place across the country.
- Feb. 21 - Russia’s War in Global Perspective: An evening with Dmytro Kuleba (20:30 EET, Live Stream). A discussion with Ukraine’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs on the geopolitical impact of Russia’s war. Register here.
- Feb. 22 - Mass rally marking three years of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine (Washington D.C. 00:00-01:30, EET Time). Supporters of Ukraine will gather at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington D.C., for a mass rally commemorating three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Register here.
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