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Editor's note: This article is an on-site version of KI Insights' public newsletter The Week Ahead, covering events from May 5-11. Sign up here to start your week with an agenda of Ukraine-related events delivered directly to your inbox every Sunday.
The coming week will provide further clarity on the future of the US-Ukraine relationship. Key questions include: will the US pull out of Ukraine-Russia talks, will Ukraine’s Rada ratify the “minerals deal” (at least the public part, note that some expect a week’s delay), will US military support be restarted in earnest. Meanwhile, Moscow is hoping for a propaganda win on May 9 and a related ceasefire.
The week begins, however, with the aftermath of Romania’s presidential elections, held on May 4. The outcome will be closely watched for its potential impact on regional security and Europe’s collective posture toward Russian aggression. With self-proclaimed Trumpist George Simion leading the polls, there are concerns about a new Central European political headache.
On May 5, Saudi Arabia is expected to advocate for a substantial supply increase during an OPEC+ video conference. This comes after Riyadh’s unexpected move earlier in the month to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day, marking a departure from OPEC’s earlier, cautious approach. Further oil price drops would ramp up pressure on Russia’s already strained budget.
Ukraine’s internal resilience will be discussed on May 6 during the InfoSec Forum Ukraine 2025, emphasizing Kyiv’s expanding focus on cybersecurity amid escalating Russian hybrid attacks across Europe.
On May 7, the Papal Conclave will convene in Rome, drawing global attention as the Vatican prepares for a leadership transition, with possible implications for its stance on Ukraine and broader international affairs. May 8 will see Ukraine commemorate the Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation, a moment for officials to draw direct links between historical resistance to aggression and the present struggle for sovereignty. On the same day, the Kyiv Security Forum will convene, serving as a critical platform to bolster domestic resilience and rally international support during a week of heightened geopolitical stakes.
In contrast, Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9 will be scrutinized for signs of internal dynamics and military messaging. Putin’s announcement of a May 9-11 ceasefire, framed as a goodwill gesture, has been denounced by Volodomyr Zelensky as a deception tactic, who reiterated Ukraine’s demand for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire as the only credible basis for negotiations.
The optics surrounding Russia’s parade will be carefully analyzed by both international observers and Ukrainian officials for indications of escalations or strategic signaling. From Europe, only Slovak PM Róbert Fico, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and leader of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik accepted (though Fico and Vucic have since “fallen ill”). India’s Modi declined Putin’s invitation.
Ukraine faces a mounting challenge as efforts to restructure $2.6 bn in GDP-linked securities remain stalled. With $540 mn payment due at the end of May, concerns are rising over the risk of a default, which could further complicate wartime financing and Ukraine’s broader reform agenda.
The week ahead will be dense with symbolism, diplomacy, and strategic pressure. For Ukraine, it offers both urgent challenges and critical opportunities to reinforce international solidarity, resist diplomatic maneuvers favoring Moscow, and maintain momentum toward achieving a just and durable peace.
Events and Milestones:
Diplomatic, Business, and Cultural:
- May 6 – InfoSec Forum Ukraine 2025 (Parkovy Congress Center, Kyiv 09:00 EEST). A major cybersecurity event aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s cyber resilience against hybrid threats and emerging challenges. Buy tickets here.
- May 7 – Papal Conclave convenes (Pauline Chapel, Vatican City, 17:30 EEST). Following the death of Pope Francis, cardinals meet to elect a new pope.
- May 8 – Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation (Ukraine). Ukraine honors the memory of those lost in past conflicts, with this year’s observance carrying additional resonance amid the ongoing war.
- May 8 – Europe Victory Day (Europe). Celebrations highlight both the Allies historical victory in World War II and contemporary European unity against Russian aggression.
- May 8 – Forum on Arms and Military Equipment Export (Cancelled due to security concerns, possibly to be rescheduled). The event was to be hosted by the Technological Forces of Ukraine, a drone and defense tech-focused trade association.
- May 8–9 – Kyiv Security Forum 2025 (Kyiv, 10:00 EEST). A high-level gathering of policymakers, experts, and civil society leaders focused on European security and Ukraine’s role within it. More information here.
- May 8–10 – Proposed Russian Ceasefire (Ukraine/Russia). Russian President Vladimir Putin announces a unilateral ceasefire aligned with Victory Day commemorations (rejected by both the US and Ukraine.
- May 9 – Victory Day (Russia). The military parade and public events are closely watched for signs of internal stability and political messaging amid ongoing war pressures.
- May 11 – Parliamentary Elections (Albania). A regional event of note, potentially impacting Southeast Europe’s political landscape.
- May 12 – "Where next for Ukraine after Trump’s first 100 days? Prospects for War and Peace" briefing by KI Insights (Kyiv, 18:00 EEST). Register here. Read more here.
- May 20 – “Reforms, Transitions, and Market Opportunities: Ukraine's Deal Pipeline in 2025” briefing by KI Insights (Kyiv, 18:00 EEST). Register here. Read more here.
Other events:
- May 6 – Day of Mechanized Infantry (Ukraine). Ukraine honors its mechanized infantry forces, recognizing their vital role in the country's defense and ongoing resistance.
- May 11 – Mother’s Day (Ukraine, US, and various international). Celebrated with particular emotional resonance given the widespread sacrifices and resilience of Ukrainian families during the war.
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