(Updated: )
Editor's note: This article is an on-site version of KI Insights' public newsletter The Week Ahead, covering events from April 14-20. Sign up here to start your week with an agenda of Ukraine-related events delivered directly to your inbox every Sunday.
The coming week will present an array of policy developments focused on Ukraine. The EU Commission will send a second €2.1 bn tranche in windfall profits to support Ukraine, while energy alignment efforts with the EU are in progress. Meanwhile, President Zelensky has publicly stated Ukraine’s readiness to commit up to $50 bn for a new U.S. military aid package from the U.S., containing air defense systems, including the Patriot missile system.
The UK and France will accelerate military planning for “the coalition of the willing” to secure Ukraine’s air, sea, and land over the next two weeks, according to Bloomberg reports. Participants must submit responses by next week, with defense ministers reviewing contributions. The coalition aims to deter future Russian aggression and support Ukraine's military regeneration.
On Apr. 14 EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting will commence in Luxembourg on the ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine, amid international peace efforts. Ministers are expected to coordinate diplomatic and security responses and assess military aid mechanisms. Ukrainian FM Andrii Sybiha will join the discussion remotely to provide an update from Kyiv and align Ukraine’s priorities with the EU.
The same day, Lithuania’s Orlen Lietuva will deliver the first batch of E5-grade fuel containing 4.8% bioethanol, according to Reuters reports. This comes ahead of Ukraine’s May 1 deadline to introduce a mandatory 5% bioethanol blend in motor fuels, stemming from the legislation passed in June 2024 to align Ukraine’s energy standards with EU sustainability regulations. Orlen’s Gdańsk refinery in Poland and Romania’s OMV Petrom are also expected to begin fuel shipments to Ukraine from mid-April.
The first round of retaliatory tariffs from the EU on €26 bn worth of U.S. goods, which was initially scheduled to be implemented on Apr. 15, is now suspended for 90 days in response to Trump’s hectic halt of U.S. measures. U.S. “Liberation Day” tariffs would affect €380 bn in EU exports and could shrink Europe’s GDP by 0.3% over two years. Brussels is now exploring mechanisms to countermeasure Washington's actions.
Bridget Brink, the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, resigned on April 10, after nearly three years in the position and is expected to leave her post in the coming weeks. Chris Smith, the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Eastern Europe and Policy and Regional Affairs in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, is reportedly being considered for the position.
By the end of the week MPs will vote on a compromise law to reform ARMA, the agency in charge of seized assets. The bill sets leadership criteria, mandates an external audit, and overhauls asset management. ARMA is fiercely opposing it while lobbying to take over sanctions-related assets.
The Trump administration’s Apr. 20 deadline for a ceasefire in Ukraine approaches with little substantive diplomatic momentum (albeit a fair amount of noise). Neither battlefield dynamics nor negotiation frameworks indicate a credible pathway to any de-escalation, let alone a full ceasefire. As Easter coincides with the deadline, hopes for a symbolic pause in hostilities remain largely aspirational.
Events and Milestones:
- Apr. 16 – Ukraine’s Public Finances: Where Does the Money Go? (Centre for Economic Strategy & Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Online, 12:00 EET) CES and IfW Kiel will present data on military, financial, and humanitarian assistance, and how this support shapes Ukraine’s budget priorities. Register here.
- Apr. 16 – Russo-Ukrainian War and Geopolitics: How It All Began (Harvard University, Online, 18:00 EET) A lecture exploring the origins of the Russo-Ukrainian War and its implications for global geopolitics. More info here.
- Apr. 17 – Ukrainian Economy Review: Does Ukraine Have Enough Gas? (Centre for Economic Strategy & German Economic Team, Online, 17:00 EET) A discussion on Ukraine’s gas supply challenges following Russian strikes, the financing gap for the upcoming heating season, and potential donor support. Register here.
- Apr. 16-18 – Recovery Construction Forum Ukraine 2.0 (Hilton Kyiv, Kyiv, 10:00 EET). A major forum discussing the rebuilding of Ukraine’s infrastructure and economy post-war, with participation from international experts and Ukrainian officials. Get tickets here.
- Apr. 17 – Les Poderviansky's 'Hamlet. Rock Opera' (House of Culture KPI, Kyiv, 19:00 EET) A modern rock adaptation of Shakespeare’s 'Hamlet' by Ukrainian playwright Les Poderviansky, blending classic literature with contemporary music. Get tickets here.
- Apr. 17 – Last day for advanced payments of the personal income tax and single tax in Ukraine
- Apr. 18 – Victoria Smolkin: No Monument: Construction and Destruction of Memory in Soviet Kyiv (Harvard University, Online 18:00 EET). A talk by historian Victoria Smolkin on the creation and dismantling of monuments in Soviet Kyiv and their role in memory and identity. Register here.
- Apr. 18-20 – Garden Beer Weekend (V’yava Cultural Space, Kyiv, 16:00 EET). A weekend festival celebrating craft beers, local brewers, and a vibrant beer culture. Get tickets here.
- Apr. 20 – Easter Sunday
- Apr. 20 – Initial ceasefire deadline outlined by the administration of Donald Trump
If you have an upcoming event that you would like featured in our newsletter, please get in touch via [email protected].
Dominic Culverwell
