Reports of an imminent Russian summer offensive and troop build ups on Ukraine's border are raising alarms in Sumy Oblast and fears that a large-scale assault could be on the horizon.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 22 said he had ordered his military to create a "security buffer zone" along the border, and President Volodymyr Zelensky later claimed 50,000 of Moscow's troops were amassed "in the direction of Sumy."
"These are trained combat units — airborne troops, marines, those that were specially transferred to displace our troops," a source in Ukraine's defense forces told the Kyiv Independent.
Russian forces have already launched limited offensive operations and captured a small number of villages in the oblast, but soldiers and experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent say the Kremlin's full intentions remain murky.
Adding to the information fog, journalists’ access to Sumy Oblast has been limited by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) since the withdrawal from Kursk Oblast, and the Ukrainian military has shared little information on the front-line situation.
When contacted by the Kyiv Independent, the Ukrainian military command of Kursk Oblast declined to comment, citing a "limited" ability to comment on the situation in the area.
Sumy Oblast and the Kursk operation
The warning of a renewed Russian push into Sumy Oblast comes two months after Ukrainian troops had to withdraw from Russia’s adjacent Kursk Oblast after losing the logistics hub town of Sudzha.
As soon as Ukraine’s costly Kursk operation died out, Russian troops took the momentum and began raids into Sumy Oblast, depriving Kyiv of the opportunity to recover and rebuild the defenses there.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump continues to push for peace talks to end the war at all costs, with Ukraine and Russia planning to meet again in Istanbul on June 2 despite previous talks yielding minimal results.
The Ukrainian troops on the ground
Uncertain of what might lay ahead, Ukrainian soldiers on the ground are bracing for tougher days.
With many units exhausted after seven months of holding onto the Kursk salient under heavy Russian first-person view (FPV) drones and glide bombs, Kyiv’s ability to hold the Sumy Oblast defense would depend on how it can reinforce the area despite a manpower shortage.
Ukrainian local authorities admitted on May 26 that Russia has already captured four border villages in Sumy Oblast, including Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka.
Russian troops were deploying the now-familiar tactics of using small assault groups, relying on "fast movement" with quad bikes, according to a deputy company commander with the 80th Air Assault Brigade, who goes by his callsign Third.
"Only time will tell (how prepared Ukraine is)," he told the Kyiv Independent.
Russia is conducting small assaults most actively in the areas of the Zhuravka and Basivka villages, but it has also widened "the attempt zone" using similar tactics, according to the State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andriy Demchenko.
Russian forces have also begun pushing westward, near the villages of Veselivka and Volodymyrivka, but are reportedly suffering heavy losses.
"Despite the fact that the enemy is suffering losses, we see that they openly do not give a damn about their soldiers," Demchenko told the Kyiv Independent.
How far does Russia plan to advance into Sumy Oblast?
The scale at which Russia plans to advance into Sumy Oblast is unclear. So far, it has been a gradual push over the past few weeks, slowly capturing the border villages, according to Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group monitoring the war closely through open sources. He expected it to continue in the near future.
Demchenko from the State Border Guard confirmed to the Kyiv Independent on May 20 that Russia was bringing more equipment into the border area. He said that attacks remained small incursions with squads of infantry using equipment no larger than quad bikes.
It is unclear how much equipment Moscow amassed near Sumy Oblast.
Civilians in Sumy Oblast
A civilian evacuation in Sumy Oblast — a region that has been regularly struck by Russian attacks since 2022 but intensified since the Kursk incursion — is ongoing.
Nearly 56,000 residents were evacuated from Sumy Oblast under mandatory evacuation orders, Governor Oleh Hryhorov said on May 19.
As of May 20, a representative for the Regional Military Administration said that three municipalities — Bilopillya, Vorozhba, and Nova Sloboda — had been asked to evacuate in the preceding month, but said authorities were not yet forcing residents to evacuate.
"As for what's happening on the border itself, only soldiers can answer, but as of today, there's no threat to the oblast from there," they told the Kyiv Independent.
While Russian forces will likely continue their "slow kind of offensive operation" in the northern border areas of Sumy Oblast, the eastern region of Donbas will likely remain Moscow’s priority, according to Kastehelmi from the Black Bird Group.
He said he would be "surprised" if Sumy Oblast became one of the main axes of any Russian summer offensive, given that it would further stretch Moscow’s troops and it could likely achieve more on other fronts, such as the Donbas or the southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
"It's likely that the Russians continue to attack in Sumy (Oblast) too, but I would assess it as a secondary direction where they can tie up Ukrainian resources," he said.
Border areas are usually difficult to fortify due to raids from both sides and their proximity to Russia, which makes engineering equipment particularly vulnerable to potential attacks.
Kastehelmi said that while Russia appears to have captured more villages than the Ukrainian local authorities had confirmed, the pace has been "really slow," and Moscow could simply be trying to prevent another potential Ukrainian incursion.
"They may try to gain more ground there (in Sumy Oblast), maybe capture a few more villages, but it doesn't really change the general situation if the Russians control just a small sector," Kastehelmi said.
The Deputy Company Commander from the 80th brigade, Third, said that the situation near the border was "more or less normal (and) controlled," and Sumy continued to "live its life to the fullest" despite the nightly drone attacks.
But the high number of Russian troops deployed near Sumy Oblast still has Ukrainian soldiers on the ground on their toes.
Illia, a serviceman from the 80th brigade, said in mid-May that he was not sure whether there would be an offensive into Sumy Oblast, but expected the assaults to continue.
"There could be an offensive — there could not be as well," he told the Kyiv Independent.
The source in Ukraine's defense forces told the Kyiv Independent that Russia's full intentions will depend on whether or not it manages to secure the so-called "security buffer zone" ordered by Putin.
"It is clear to us that if they manage to do this, they will go further," they said.
"Because Russia's overall goal has not changed — to occupy all of Ukraine."
Yuliia Taradiuk
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