Russia's Black Sea Fleet has doubled down on defensive and reactive measures since suffering setbacks in recent months, the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote on Oct. 14.
Ukraine has gained initiative in the northwest Black Sea since June, launching unmanned surface vessels, unmanned air vehicles, and missile attacks, along with special operations against the Black Sea Fleet.
Russia's Black Sea Fleet has mostly continued to train, maintain, and defend itself while also continuing to launch missiles into Ukraine, which "it can almost certainly continue to do so from the eastern (region of the) Black Sea," the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote.
However, "there is only a realistic possibility" of the Black Sea Fleet using its firepower superiority to seize the initiative in the western region of the Black Sea.
Additionally, the risk of further military losses and political consequences "likely outweigh any gain" from the Russian Black Sea fleet attempting to enforce a blockade of Ukrainian-bound trade.