Just one week into his presidency, U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted at his approach to U.S. sanctions on Russia. On Truth Social last week, he called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to “settle now and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE,” adding, “If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.” This not-so-subtle threat targets not only the Kremlin but also nations still doing business with Russia.
Writing in these pages in November, I noted two points. First, Trump is no stranger to using sanctions and other coercive economic tools. During his first term, Trump leveraged sanctions expansively against Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea. Second, Trump loves making deals, and in doing so, he needs to win, avoid appearing weak, and, if possible, generate profit for the American people.
Trump’s Truth Social post was thus predictable, but it raises several questions, chief among them: "What sort of deal?" and "What kind of sanctions?
The answer to the second question is somewhat easier to predict than the first. After three years of escalating sanctions, trade, and financial restrictions on Russia, Ukraine’s allies have undoubtedly had an effect. But the slow and laborious pace at which sanctions have been revealed has allowed Russia to adapt and minimize disruption.
Many point to the parlous state of the Russian economy, its high inflation rate, and economic slowdown. This is true, and indeed, 2025 looks set to be the toughest year for the Russian economy since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion. But will it be tough enough to force Putin to rethink if sufficient revenue — particularly from the sale of oil — continues to flow in? And herein lies the possible foundation of “a deal.”
The Achilles’ heel of international sanctions is Russia’s ability to sell oil. Despite sanctions, many buyers still purchase Russian energy, providing the Kremlin with vital revenue to finance its war. With few exceptions, such as immobilizing Russian Central Bank assets, Western policymakers have moved cautiously with sanctions, particularly where they fear their decisions might roil commodity or energy markets.
This restrained approach resembles the first part of the Monty Python fish-slapping dance: irritating the Kremlin but not delivering the decisive blow. Trump, however, seems eager to take on the second part: delivering the financial punch he believes will force Putin to strike a deal.
"This restrained approach resembles the first part of the Monty Python fish-slapping dance: irritating the Kremlin but not delivering the decisive blow."
Russia’s reliance on oil exports is not just a weakness of international sanctions but also a critical vulnerability for the Kremlin. Without this revenue, the dire state of the Russian economy and its ability to fund its illegal war of aggression in Ukraine would become perilous. Trump recognizes this — and sees an opportunity.
Trump has already called on OPEC countries to reduce the price of oil, arguing that cheaper oil would end Russia’s war against Ukraine “immediately,” further suggesting that OPEC countries’ decision to maintain high oil prices makes them “to a certain extent responsible” for the war. You can plainly see the seeds of a deal forming in the President’s mind.
Trump’s Truth Social post hints that he is prepared to wield every economic tool at his disposal — taxes, tariffs, and sanctions — to target Russian oil sales. To date, there is little evidence that Russia has lost much of its oil market, beyond countries that are Ukraine’s closest allies in the G7. Trump could launch a “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at cutting off these buyers.
Observers may question where these nations would source their energy instead. Trump’s answer? The United States, which is increasingly positioned as a major oil and gas exporter. By coercing countries to abandon Russian energy, Trump envisions boosting U.S. exports, simultaneously undermining the Kremlin and profiting the American economy.
Trump prides himself on his deal-making skills. His worldview is driven by the need to coerce, cajole, and, if necessary, bully to achieve his goals. After three years of gentle and intermittent slapping of Russia by Western sanctions, the stage is set for the final sanctions push. The new occupant of the White House undoubtedly feels he is the man for the job and clearly believes that his love of economic tools and maximum pressure will indeed “get the deal done.” For Trump, peace and profit would surely be the ultimate deal.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.
Illia Krotenko
