After the deadliest attack on Kyiv since last summer killed 13 civilians, U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to lose patience with Russia, posting on social media, “Vladimir, Stop! 5,000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the peace deal done!”
Trump repeated a number he’s cited in the past to push for a quick resolution of the war in Ukraine, without evidence to back up his statement.
Although his figure is far higher than public estimates, a lack of official data to counter his claims meant it was widely quoted with only limited pushback.
Both Ukraine and Russia closely guard their numbers as state secrets, leaving an information void that others have tried to fill.
The true death toll is a matter of intense debate, but experts have used open sources and intelligence estimates to try and calculate how many Ukrainian and Russian troops have died throughout the war.
Here’s what we know.
The majority of troop deaths have been on the Russian side
Exact numbers vary, but all experts agree — Russia is losing far more troops than Ukraine.
Using open sources, BBC Russia and Mediazona, a Russian independent media outlet, have collected the names of more than 100,000 Russian soldiers killed since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
When adjusting to account for soldiers whose names may not appear publicly in cemeteries, obituaries, and war memorials, BBC Russia stated that the true death toll could range somewhere between 158,885 to 229,500 Russian soldiers.
Ukraine’s Armed Forces General Staff publishes daily estimates of Russia’s troop losses, but does not separate deaths from those who are wounded. The combined casualties total 951,960 as of April 30. The General Staff has not released details on how these estimates are calculated.
In January, then-U.S. defense secretary said Russia had suffered more than 700,000 casualties, combining both deaths and injuries.
Although Ukraine has avoided publishing its own troop loss figures for most of the war and has reportedly withheld them from its allies, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 16 that over 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died on the battlefield since February 2022.
Unofficial estimates put the number higher, however. There are tens of thousands of soldiers missing who are not included in the count. Additionally, confidential sources cited by the Wall Street Journal in September and by the New York Times in August of 2023 named Ukrainian troop deaths of 80,000 and 70,000, respectively. Kyiv has pushed back on these estimates.
The Kyiv Independent was not able to independently verify the figures provided by different sources.
Despite the gap in losses, Russia still has a much larger military and a much larger population to draw on in its recruiting efforts. Because of this, it has managed to continue grinding forward on the battlefield while sustaining high losses.
Viacheslav Ratynskyi
Losses fluctuate, but the average death toll is far lower than Trump cites
Across more than three years of war, the average number of soldiers killed weekly — even when looking at the higher end of public estimates for both Russia and Ukraine — comes out to far below what Trump cites, at less than 2,000 each week.
Losses have risen compared to the start of the full-scale invasion, and daily and weekly tolls fluctuate depending on battlefield conditions. Casualties rose during the costly Battle of Bakhmut in late 2022 and early 2023, and rose again at the end of 2024 amid increased fighting.
Multiple sources — including Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi — say around half of the Russian troop losses occurred in 2024 as Russia stepped up its infantry assaults.
Around 7,000 Russian troops died and another 8,000 were injured near Pokrovsk alone in January, according to Syrskyi. Fighting has concentrated there near the crucial logistics hub at Ukraine’s eastern front line.
Even when factoring in higher losses of late, the average combined death toll for Ukraine and Russia each week falls short of Trump’s comments.
Elsa Court
