For nearly a week, Ukraine was left in the dark by its once-close ally, deprived of American intelligence as Russia advanced. Civilians suffered missile and drone attacks, while the military faced Russian offensives. All of this was aimed at forcing Ukraine into a "peace" agreement.
"(With U.S. President Donald Trump), there is a swing that goes back and forth. To be honest, I don't know what will happen next,"said Maksym*, a Ukrainian soldier working with intelligence.
After a weeklong pause, U.S. intelligence sharing resumed during talks between the U.S. and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on March 11. During the hiatus, Ukraine’s position weakened as Russian forces captured more territory and launched terror attacks on civilians. On March 8, for example, Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Odesa, hitting the port and civilian targets.
This pause demonstrated that the U.S. was willing to cut its partner off from vital intelligence, even as Ukraine faced escalating threats.
“This is not Mean Girls. This is not some episode of some television show. This is very serious,” said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, announcing the resumption of intelligence sharing. Someone should remind him that it was his administration’s actions that put people’s lives in danger due to a political dispute.
Trust is hard to build and easy to lose. Ukraine will never fully trust the Trump administration again, and every day will bring new worries about whether another slip of the tongue could lead to another suspension of support. This isn’t "deal-making" as the Trump White House might frame it. It’s hostage-taking, the worst kind: preventing long-time allies from defending themselves against a deadly foe.
"Of course, we were upset. That goes without saying. The lack of intelligence sharing brings a lot of problems," Maksym told The Counteroffensive.
Before the war, Maksym worked in IT, with no military background. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion, he woke to a strange sound: "Who sets off fireworks at five in the morning?" It didn’t take long to realize that those weren’t fireworks.
Worried that Russian forces might invade his home region of Rivne, bordering Belarus, Maksym left Kyiv to join Ukraine's territorial defense. Over the past three years, he’s taken on multiple roles: training troops on drone operations, becoming an air defense specialist, and eventually working in intelligence. He now focuses on open-source intelligence and automating processes within Ukraine’s military.
While the exact sources of Ukraine's intelligence are unclear, Politico estimates that 80% of it comes from foreign sources, with the majority provided by the U.S. Specifically, the U.S. supplies Ukraine with radar data, satellite imagery, and alerts about Russian aircraft or missile launches. Thankfully, no one interviewed by The Counteroffensive considered the suspension of U.S. intelligence to be an irreversible catastrophe.
Although this pause significantly hampered Ukrainian operations, Kyiv could still gather intelligence from its own drones, radio interceptions, and by working with other countries. However, U.S. intelligence had never been fully comprehensive. Washington shared only a portion of its data with Ukraine and sometimes did so with delays.
The U.S. advantage is its unrivaled dominance in military satellite reconnaissance. With nearly 250 military satellites, the U.S. conducts near real-time surveillance. NATO countries combined have just about 50.
For Ukraine, the suspension of satellite imagery from U.S.-based Maxar was particularly critical. Though Ukraine could purchase satellite imagery on its own, the cost was high. Maxar provides 90% of U.S. geospatial intelligence and can capture key locations every 3-4 hours with high resolution — capabilities few others can match.
"We could see, for example, a Russian convoy moving toward a certain location, allowing us to prepare in advance. But now, our troops are somewhat 'blind,'" Maksym said before U.S. intelligence sharing resumed.
Ukraine still had two satellites of its own and one provided by Germany, but Maxar’s contributions were far more comprehensive. During the pause, France offered some assistance, though its capabilities were far more limited. French satellites specialize in electromagnetic spectrum monitoring, which can detect Russian activity.
Additionally, suspending intelligence sharing complicated the use of U.S. weapons like the HIMARS precision-guided missile system, which relies heavily on American intelligence. Ukrainian forces have used HIMARS to disrupt Russian supply routes and destroy ammunition depots. However, without U.S. data, Ukrainian troops had to rely on their own drones for targeting.
According to Oleksii Teplukhin, CEO of the Ukrainian AI startup Griselda, intelligence pauses like this severely hinder Ukraine’s ability to plan deep strikes inside Russia.
"To take out an (Russian) oil depot, you don’t just need to know where it’s located. You need more detailed intelligence — what was there last week, the exact position of the rectification column [a technological apparatus used for separating mixtures], and so on," Oleksii told The Counteroffensive.
But the suspension didn’t just impact the military. Civilians paid the price too.
"I’m glad U.S. support has been restored. At the very least, it will help our air defense because, over the past few days, both drones and missiles have heavily terrorized cities like Dnipro and Odesa," Maksym said.
Despite the setbacks, Maksym doesn’t consider Americans enemies. He’s puzzled by the motivations behind the White House’s decisions. Going forward, though, he believes Ukraine will take steps to reduce its reliance on the U.S. and look more toward European allies, such as NATO, for intelligence.
Ukraine has learned a vital lesson: it can’t rely solely on others for its survival. Just as Kyiv developed its own long-range weapons when Western allies hesitated, it’s likely to seek independent solutions for intelligence.
"The U.S. is a huge country, and any mistakes or inaccuracies on its part affect the entire world. It’s like a voodoo doll for the whole planet," Maksym said.
The name of the military service member has been changed for security reasons.
Editor’s Note: This article was published by the twice-weekly newsletter “The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak” on March 13, 2025, and has been re-published by the Kyiv Independent with permission. To subscribe to The Counteroffensive, click here. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.
Timothy Ash
