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Russia's mobilization arithmetic. How many can the Kremlin send to war?

When Russia announced a "partial" mobilization in the fall of 2022, its society experienced a genuine shock. The queues at the Upper Lars border crossing into Georgia and the chaotic roundups of reservists are still fresh in public memory. The Russian authorities learned from that episode and shifted tactics toward a more concealed form of mobilization. Several tools were deployed at once: mass recruitment from prisons, sending convicts to the front in exchange for pardons, and aggressive enli