Over the past days, Moscow's grand avenues, like every year in early May, were taken over by the growling of 80-year-old tanks and the smell of gasoline burned by military vehicles.
To the delight of many locals, soldiers marched in multiple rehearsals for the May 9 Victory Day Parade in the week leading up to the actual event.
But as Moscow prepares for its fourth parade since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the atmosphere this year is different.
At the turn of the month, Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine "cannot be held responsible" for whatever happens during Russian President Vladimir Putin's military spectacle, opening the door to speculations that Ukraine might actually be considering striking military targets inside Russia during the event.
Natalia Yermak
International stature
The Victory Day parade is not an event like any other. Held on major anniversaries since the 1960s, and annually since 1995, it has come to become Russia's grandest show of national pride, an event intended to highlight both the country's supposed glorious past as well as its continued military strength.
This post-Soviet imperial nostalgia reached its climax under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, who has shown special devotion to publicly celebrating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany.
This year, the Victory Day parade was intended to be even more attractive than previous editions, with invitations sent out to several dozen foreign leaders, whose presence is supposed to highlight Russia's international standing.
Aside from the usual bunch, that is, presidents of Central Asian countries and Alexander Lukashenko, this year's parade will host China's Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, among others.
This guest list stands in clear contrast with last year's parade, which hosted only foreign leaders from Belarus, Central Asian countries, as well as Cuba, Laos and Guinea-Bissau, and even more clearly with that in 2022, when no foreigners showed up at all.
Somewhat in reaction, Ukraine's Zelensky made his comments on "not being responsible" for the security of the parade, with high-level officials repeating this claim in the following days.
'Hard to tell what will happen'
In the days leading up to the parade, Ukraine showed that it has the technical capability to strike Russia's capital.
Over the past days, Moscow's airports were closed several times due to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, paralyzing air traffic just as Russians were traveling for holidays during the days leading up to Victory Day.
According to specialists tracking Ukrainian military activity in Russia, while most attacks on Moscow are intercepted by air defense, a small proportion of drones do manage to reach the city.
"In March, while 90% of Ukrainian attacks on Russia were focused on the border regions of Belgorod and Kursk, we still noted 14 strikes on the Moscow region and four strikes on Moscow itself," said Nichita Gurcov, senior analyst at ACLED, an international organization tracking military conflict and political violence worldwide.
According to Gurcov, however, this does not mean that Ukrainian drones will necessarily reach Moscow on May 9.
"This really is about the language of force that Russia constantly uses (in this war), and Ukraine understands that it needs to reciprocate with the same language."
One of the main issues will be the fact that Russian authorities are planning to turn off mobile internet in the capital during the event, in anticipation of Ukrainian military activity.
"Most Ukrainian drones are GPS-guided (and will be affected by this cut), with only a small patch of experimental drones using AI to reach their destination," Gurcov told the Kyiv Independent.
"In general, Ukrainian forces attempt to send as many drones as possible to circumvent Russian air defenses. The fewer drones that are available, the lower the chances that at least one will hit a target. Still, it's hard to tell what will happen on May 9 in Moscow."
In an attempt to secure the cherished military spectacle from any potential attacks, Putin had declared a unilateral ceasefire for the time of the parade. Ukraine didn't agree to a 3-day-long ceasefire and had said it continues to petition for a month-long one.
Zelensky called Putin's call a "theatrical performance" designed to ease Russia's international isolation and create a favorable atmosphere for the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.
Ukrainian threats a 'question of narrative'
With Ukraine theoretically having the capability to strike Moscow, the question of intent looms over the event.
"This really is about the language of force that Russia constantly uses (in this war), and Ukraine understands that it needs to reciprocate with the same language," said Maria Piechowska, an analyst who covers Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).
"Ukraine's speculations additionally serve as a reminder that Russia is still at war today and has not defeated Ukraine."
"Ukraine just doesn't want to be walked over, in a positive sense, and the question of narrative is important in understanding this. Authorities were asked directly about the possibility of an attack, and they simply had nothing to gain from saying that they would not target the parade, especially given that Russia continues to target civilians in Ukraine."
The comments on the May 9 parade also show that Ukraine feels it is in a "strong position vis-a-vis Russia this week," argued Dr. Marnie Howlett, who is a lecturer in Russian and East European politics at the University of Oxford, in conversation with the Kyiv Independent.
"Ukraine's speculations additionally serve as a reminder that Russia is still at war today and has not defeated Ukraine."
The question of narrative also serves internal political purposes, Piechowska argued in turn, with an attack on the Victory Day parade serving as a kind of "dream" that many in Ukraine imagine, and which could build up internal morale.
As a result, even if Ukraine does not strike the parade, speaking about it publicly emboldens Ukrainian public opinion, especially after a series of deadly Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities over the past weeks, in which dozens of civilians were killed.
'I hope they understood that Russia is at war'
Threats to attack the Victory Day parade were also likely directed at foreign leaders who planned to visit Moscow on May 9, experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent argued.
"I don't think the actual fear of being targeted in a strike led to some of them changing their minds about coming to Moscow, however, their unwillingness to be connected to this topic of war… I think this could have played a role in their decisions, even if I wouldn't overestimate this either," Piechowska said.
The fact that Russia is a country at war and that traveling there carries "significant risks" is simply a "reality of the war" between Russia and Ukraine, Howlett said in turn.
"While the statements by Ukraine about not guaranteeing the safety of foreign leaders in Moscow may dissuade some from traveling to Russia, they are also a reflection of the ongoing war and the risks it poses."
These comments come as Ukraine continues to send drones to strike Moscow, with these attacks having produced at least one concrete result — on May 7, the plane carrying Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to Moscow was initially not able to reach the Russian capital due to Ukrainian activity.
While Vucic's plane needed to make a halt in Baku, the Serbian president was later able to continue his flight to Moscow.
"Still, I don't know for sure what will happen on May 9," Gurcov concluded.
Chris York
