Poll: Majority of Americans think Ukraine territorial concessions, troop cap would hand victory to Russia

A majority of Americans believe that forcing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, or limiting the size of Ukraine's army would be handing Moscow a victory in its full-scale invasion, according to a new poll.

The More in Common survey, shared exclusively with the Kyiv Independent, shows strong international objections to key parts of the latest peace proposals being put forward by the White House.

"Across Europe and the United States, people want to see an end to this unjust war and to stop the suffering of Ukrainians. Yet the clear result of this polling is that they think no deal is better than a bad deal that benefits Russia and leaves Ukraine vulnerable," Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, told the Kyiv Independent.

The survey asked respondents in the U.K., Germany, Poland, the U.S., and France about their feelings towards Ukraine, Russia, and the ongoing peace process.

It was conducted on Nov. 29-30 amid a surge of diplomatic efforts after the U.S. backed a 28-point plan pushed by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, that many viewed as effectively pushing Ukraine toward capitulation in Russia's all-out war.

After several rounds of talks, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Dec. 2 that the revised plan comprises 20 points. The most sensitive topics still up for discussion include possible territorial concessions, while a cap on the size of Ukraine's army post-war is less sensitive though still contentious.

According to the More in Common poll, 51% of Americans think either a reduction in Ukraine’s armed forces, or territorial concessions would indicate victory for Russia.

A further 29% said they don't know, 20% said a reduction in Ukraine's armed forces would not be a victory for Russia, and  21% said territorial concessions would not be a victory for Russia.

"Across Europe and America the public reject the concessions Ukraine would be forced to make under the Witkoff plan  — including reducing Ukraine’s military and conceding occupied regions - and feel they would hand Russia victory," Tryl said.

Other key findings in the survey include:

• 74% of Britons, 60% of Americans, 61% of Poles and French people, and 53% of Germans sympathize with Ukraine over Russia.
• 64% of Germans, 64% of Poles, 70% of French people, 79% of Britons, and 74% of Americans think it matters to their respective countries that Ukraine defends its sovereignty from Russian aggression.
• The U.K. stands out in its strong support for sending peacekeepers — the only country where a majority (55%) supports the move. Support among Americans has risen by 4 points to 49%, while opposition has gone from 34% to 33%.
• A greater proportion of Brits (46 to 31%)), Poles (49 to 35%)) and Americans (43 to 29%)) think that the worst consequences that arose from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine could have been avoided if other countries had acted quicker. French and German people tend to disagree, with a greater proportion saying that even with quicker action, the consequences could not have been avoided.
• Most Britons (68%), Poles (70%), French people (58%) and Americans (63%) think it is likely that Russia will invade other European countries in the coming years if it succeeds in capturing Ukrainian territory. While Germans are less likely to hold this view, nearly half (46%) believe that further invasions would be likely, compared to 37% who think this is unlikely.

"For people across the five countries we spoke to, the stakes of these negotiations go far beyond Ukraine: clear majorities fear that if Russia succeeds in gaining territory or weakening Ukraine’s military, it will embolden Putin and threaten Europe's long term peace and stability," Tryl added.

The results come at a critical stage in the war — several European leaders this week voiced concern that Washington might attempt to craft an agreement with Moscow that neither Ukraine nor the EU could accept.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb warned European leaders that U.S. negotiators were likely in parallel contact with Russia while holding talks with Ukrainian officials in Florida on Nov. 30, according to a transcript shared with the Kyiv Independent by a senior diplomatic source.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned that "there is a chance that U.S. will betray" Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees.

Stubb urged leaders to attend future rounds directly, saying, "We cannot leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys."