'Like a game of tennis' — Russia, Ukraine court Trump to avoid being blamed for peace talks failure

In the middle of the night, Russian President Vladimir Putin gathered Russian state TV to inform them that he is ready to begin direct peace talks with Ukraine on May 15.

A day later, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he'll be waiting for Putin in Turkey.

"We expect Russia to confirm a full, durable, and reliable ceasefire starting May 12, and Ukraine is ready to meet," Zelensky said.

The statements by Moscow and Kyiv caught the attention of the main viewer — U.S. President Donald Trump.

"I think we may see a good result from Thursday's meeting in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine," Trump said during a press conference on May 12.

"I believe both leaders are going to be there. I even thought about flying over — I'm not sure where I'll be on Thursday, I have so many meetings."

A day prior, Trump outlined his expectations for a potential meeting.

"At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly," Trump, who called for a "30-day unconditional ceasefire" and threatened to impose further sanctions in case of violations, said in his Truth Social post on May 11.

Both sides have long rejected direct talks, with Ukraine saying that it can't negotiate with a counterpart that constantly breaks agreements it had signed. While it is unclear whether Putin would actually show up to the talks, a source close to the Ukrainian President's Office told the Kyiv Independent that Kyiv is "ready for all options."

Putin and Zelensky met once — in Paris, in 2019.

The back and forth

Trump has promised to end Russia's war against Ukraine in "24 hours," and later "in days." It's been months, and the White House's inability to end the war as promised is irritating Trump, who now blames everyone but himself for the failure.

As a result, Russia and Ukraine are trying to play their part in the peace talks process to avoid being blamed by the U.S. for its failure.

"This is a bit like a game of tennis," Anatol Lieven, the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told the Kyiv Independent.

"The two sides knocking the ball to and fro and to and fro. And we have to see where the ball ends," he said, explaining that the U.S. may blame whichever side it views as interfering with the peace-making efforts.

Trump and his team's threats in April to walk away from the peace process if there is no progress in the near future have kept Ukraine and Europe on alert. Kyiv has warned that a potential U.S. exit would be "very dangerous."

Concerns persist over the U.S. potentially halting its military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine if the exit will take place.

"Ukraine's military position would be much, much worse, and there would be a much bigger risk that Ukraine would suffer a really heavy defeat and lose much more territory," Lieven said.

The most worrying concerns are if the stretched out Ukrainian defense eventually cracks over time.

What were the Minsk Agreements and why did they fail to bring peace in Ukraine?

Kyiv, under pressure from allies and a difficult battlefield situation, was forced to sign unfavorable deals.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Peace processes have historically taken months or years through multiple rounds of talks to end wars, hence a quick end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is unlikely, the expert said. He added that Russia may have a bigger appetite for compromise later this year if Ukraine can sustain inflicting heavy casualties and Russia won't be able to advance at the pace it anticipates.

"A lot of uncertainties" remain over a potential Putin-Zelensky meeting in Istanbul, including whether Putin would show up, though it is still "a progress," according to Oleksiy Melnyk, the co-director of foreign policy and international security at the Kyiv-based think tank Razumkov Center. But Putin could list last-minute demands for his attendance and then blame Ukraine for not agreeing to them, he stressed.

Both sides are "definitely" afraid of the U.S. walking away from the peace talks, with Ukraine adjusting its objectives in war, such as Zelensky ruling out potentially liberating Crimea through military means and opening up to an unconditional ceasefire.

Russia is now also forced to play along, showing readiness for talks, Melnyk said.

"(Putin) understands that America or President Trump is a serious player, especially in his culture of making radical and unpredictable decisions," Melnyk told the Kyiv Independent.

He added that Russia is likely aware of "pretty strong evidence that Trump can do more things to harm the Russian economy and the Russian international position if he decides so."

Other factors that would affect the process would include whether Trump would be "open" to siding with Russia and its justification for the all-out war it started, and how skillful the Ukrainian delegation would be, especially given that "the Russians are bloody good in playing this — the Russian culture of diplomacy," he added.

Elina Beketova, a non-resident fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) 's Democratic Resilience Program, argued that Russia would benefit more than Ukraine if the U.S. withdraws from the peace talks procedure.

"(Russia) would likely interpret this as a green light to continue its attacks," Beketova told the Kyiv Independent.

This would prompt Europe to take on a larger role, having to balance between supporting Ukraine and managing its own resources, according to Beketova.

"Russia would continue its aggressive actions, as it does now," the expert said, stressing that it has not shown any signs that it is "serious about de-escalating."

There have been two "ceasefires" over the past month, both of which Ukraine said Russian troops violated multiple times. The first was meant to last for a day and a half over Easter in April. The second, which was proposed by Moscow and rejected by Kyiv for being "theoretical," lasted three days to mark Russia's cherished Victory Day celebration.

Beketova reiterated the need for a mechanism "backed by real power and unity" that would force Russia to end its war, which she said is where "continued leadership from both Europe and the U.S. is essential."

"Russia keeps talking about peace, but its actions tell a very different story," Beketova said.

‘Not what Putin was expecting’ — What we know (and don’t know) about Ukraine, Russia peace talks in Istanbul

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have gotten more than he bargained for when, on May 11, he rejected calls for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and invited Ukraine to engage in direct talks in Istanbul later this week. In what may have been a surprise for the Russian leader, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by accepting the invitation, saying he was ready to meet Putin in Turkey on May 15. “This is not what Putin was expecting,” Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian lawmaker and

The Kyiv IndependentChris York,