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ISW: Balance of evidence, reasoning suggests that Russia deliberately damaged Kakhovka dam

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The Institute for the Study of War could not offer a definitive assessment of responsibility for the Kakhovka dam destruction but wrote that "the balance of evidence, reasoning, and rhetoric suggests that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam."

The D.C.-based think tank referenced its October 2022 forecast in the June 6 analysis. The October assessment claimed that Russian forces "will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) to cover their withdrawal" and to prevent Ukrainian forces' advance.

ISW June assessment speculated that the flooding could be used by Russian forces as a tactic to "widen the Dnipro River and complicate Ukrainian counteroffensive attempts across the already-challenging water feature."

Russia's "greater and clearer interest in flooding the lower Dnipro," contrasts with the settlement flooding risks and counteroffensive complications for Ukraine.

Despite the challenges from the dam explosion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 6 that it will not prevent Ukraine from liberating Russian-occupied territories and preparing for a counteroffensive.

Zelensky: Kakhovka dam explosion will not prevent liberation of occupied territories
The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant’s dam in southern Ukraine will not prevent the liberation of Russia-occupied territories, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 6, following a meeting with the top military and government officials.
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Haley Zehrung

News Editor

Haley Zehrung is a news editor at the Kyiv Independent. Previously, she was a Title VIII Fellow at the Department of State, where she conducted archival research in Kyrgyzstan. She has also worked at C4ADS, the Middle East Institute, and Barnard College. Haley completed a Bachelor of Arts and a Master of Arts at Columbia University in Political Science and Eurasian Studies.

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"Russian military personnel know exactly where their drones are headed and how long they can stay in the air," President Volodymyr Zelensky said, commenting on the attacks. "The routes are always calculated. This cannot be an accident, a mistake, or the initiative of some lower-level commanders."

It is the third time Russian forces have used pipelines as a tactic, which they first adopted during the Battle of Avdiivka. Back in March, around 100 troops passed through a gas pipeline to reach Ukrainian positions in Sudzha, in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

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