Is NATO already at war with Russia? It depends who you ask
NATO military forces at the “Exercise Steadfast Dart 2025” at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, southeastern Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. (Daniel Mihailescu / AFP via Getty Images)
Even before Russia sent more than 20 drones into Poland's airspace earlier this month, some world leaders were sounding the alarm about the state of the ever-deteriorating relations between Moscow and the rest of Europe.
"We are already in conflict with Russia," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Aug. 29, denouncing the Kremlin's attacks on his country's infrastructure and attempts to undermine the country's social stability and public opinion.
Russia has been waging a hybrid war against the West for decades — cyber attacks, sabotage, disinformation campaigns, and even placing bombs on cargo planes are all hallmarks of the Kremlin's persistent attempts to undermine NATO unity without triggering an all-out war.
Recent brazen Russian violations of NATO airspace, including the "unprecedented" drone attack on Poland, are a clear escalation by Moscow, which prompted the triggering of NATO's Article 4 on two occasions but stopped short of setting in motion Article 5, the alliance's collective defense clause.
But while NATO and Europe respond to these threats under the threshold of outright war, Russia sees things very differently.
"There is more evidence to suggest that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin does already consider this a war," Ed Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the Kyiv Independent.
"A lot of (the NATO) response is informed by the fact that European countries want to avoid escalation with Russia."
This was spelled out quite clearly on Sept. 15 when Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that by providing military assistance to Ukraine, NATO countries are "at war" with Russia.
"NATO is at war with Russia; this is obvious and needs no proof. NATO provides direct and indirect support to the Kyiv regime," he said.
According to Arnold, Putin sees the war in Ukraine "as existential to both his regime and also the survival of Russia as a state."
"So if you're talking about that, it's pretty clear that Russia says 'we are at war.' But in Europe, it's more that this can be managed. This is about deterrence, not defense.'"
But it's this divergence in views which could lead to what NATO is trying to avoid — further escalation.
NATO's response to Russia's repeated violations of its airspace has been to launch Eastern Sentry, a slight increase in air patrols along its eastern flank, and to issue several stern statements.
On Sept. 23, the alliance said Russia's actions were "escalatory, risk miscalculation and endanger lives," adding: "They must stop."
It reiterated its commitment to Article 5 and said its response to further violations would be "robust," adding: "We will continue to respond in the manner, timing, and domain of our choosing."
But experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent see no signs of Russia being deterred.
"A lot of (the NATO) response is informed by the fact that European countries want to avoid escalation with Russia," Alex Kokcharov, a geoeconomics analyst for Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, told the Kyiv Independent.
"And everything we've learned about the Putin government is that it operates differently and it views this as a weakness, which is actually an invitation to more Russian action and more bold Russian action."
NATO countries — particularly those that border Russia are sounding the alarm that Moscow is likely to escalate further and is willing to risk a more direct confrontation with NATO.
"We must recognize that Russia, as a whole, is prepared for escalation," Latvia's Defense Ministry told the Kyiv Independent in a statement. "While Latvia and NATO currently face no direct military threat, we cannot exclude the risk of provocations, sabotage, or escalation of incidents. We must consider this and be ready today."
Lithuania's Defense Ministry told the Kyiv Independent in a statement that actions such as multiple drones breaching NATO airspace, which could "cause human casualties," is a clear sign that the Kremlin is "accepting the risk of larger escalation with the alliance."
But Estonia went one step further.
"The message must be unequivocal," Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told the Kyiv Independent. Future violations will be met with a response, including, if necessary, the interception and downing of intruding aircraft."
But as was reflected in the NATO statement on Sept. 23, there seems to be little wider appetite among NATO members for such actions at present. Experts suggest it is, however, what is needed in order to make Russia stop.
"NATO needs to tell Russia that you're not going to intimidate us," Gordon B. Davis, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) think tank and NATO's former deputy assistant secretary general, told the Kyiv Independent.
"If you come flying in with armed weapons systems, be aware, we'll shoot you down… I think it'll be respected, and that's kind of the response I think is needed."
But if NATO isn't prepared to hit back at Russia directly, there is another option — hit back in Ukraine.
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said that Russia is constantly performing a cost-benefit analysis as it attempts to achieve its strategic goals against NATO.
"European defense spending and defense capabilities and support to Ukraine could ramp up to such a degree that Russia goes, right, we need to cash our chips in here," he told the Kyiv Independent.
"And it wouldn't have been smacked in the face, but it would have done the profit and loss calculation and decided that enough is enough."
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