Georgia stands at a crossroads.
The parliamentary elections on Oct. 26 were presented as a choice between a creeping authoritarianism and a drift into the Kremlin's orbit on one hand, and Georgia's EU aspirations on the other.
A group of pro-European parties hoped to unseat the Georgian Dream, a party led by a controversial oligarch with business ties in Russia, Bidzina Ivanishvili, which has been in power since 2012.
During the election campaign, Georgian Dream has been playing on the people's trauma of the 2008 war with Russia, scaring the voters with images of war-torn Ukraine to justify cozying up to Moscow.
When the Russian-friendly ruling party declared victory with 54% of the vote, despite many exit polls projecting victory for the opposition, the pro-EU parties and international observers cried foul.
Voices that pointed to alleged vote buying, ballot stuffing, and intimidation were joined by President Salome Zourabichvili, who compared Georgian Dream's methods to those of Russian intelligence services.
Theo Prouvost
The Georgian people took to the streets again to protest what they call "stolen elections." They raised their voices against the party whose controversial anti-LGBTQ+ and "foreign agents" laws grounded the country's EU accession to a halt.
On Nov. 1, less than a week after the crucial vote, the Kyiv Independent sat down with Laura Thornton, senior director for global democracy programs at the McCain Institute, to discuss the elections' results.
Thornton has dedicated years to researching democracy, elections, and corruption in Georgia. Between 2014 and 2019, she worked as a global associate of the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in the South Caucasus country.
Thornton believes that the level of irregularities in this election was unprecedented, and she estimates the chances of overturning the vote as "slim." If the Georgian Dream continues in its trajectory, the democratic world can no longer consider Georgia its partner, she says.
Yet, she voices hope that the predominantly pro-EU, pro-NATO population can eventually steer the country toward a democratic future.
The Kyiv Independent: Many have called these Georgian elections pivotal. What does the victory of the Georgian Dream mean for the future of Georgia?
Laura Thornton: First of all, we need to question whether or not this was a victory for the Georgian Dream. I'm not convinced that these elections reflect the will of the people. I don't know.
But the level of irregularities in this election — and I've observed many elections in Georgia — is exponentially higher than any election that we've seen since maybe since 2003. But beyond what happened on election day, the pre-election environment itself was not conducive to democratic elections. You had violence against the opposition, civil society, and journalists.
You had lawfare being employed against civil society. You had laws that were passed that were undemocratic. You had the ruling party intimidating and abusing state resources.
And you had a campaign that was based on undemocratic principles. So all of these things together do not create an environment of credible elections.
I cannot say definitively whether these election results reflect the will of the people or not, but doubts are in place.
So what does it mean going forward for the Georgian Dream government? I think there'll be an expectation that significant actions are taken. They cannot just reset and say, ‘Okay, let's start over with our international partners.’ It's not going to work like that.
I believe that international partners — the U.S., the EU — are going to demand certain actions, revoking the ‘foreign agents’ law, revoking the anti-LGBTQ law, perhaps even annulling results in certain polling stations where there were huge irregularities, maybe calling for early elections. Definitely implementing election reform. I do not think that there's going to be business as usual.
The Kyiv Independent: Based on what you've observed about the allegations of electoral fraud, do you think the allegations are credible, that there really was some kind of rigged election?
Laura Thornton: As I mentioned, these irregularities and the number of irregularities are far, far greater than any election. I've been observing elections there since 2014, never seen anything like that. These are not just isolated incidents.
These were quite a significant amount. Can I say definitively that the 10% was stolen? I don't know.
The irregularities were unprecedented. Even before the polls opened, the environment was not conducive to democratic elections. It was not a fair playing field.
It was a manipulated information environment, and it was an environment of fear and intimidation that was not conducive to democratic elections.
The Kyiv Independent: If there was electoral fraud, how realistic do you think are the chances of the voters and the opposition to overturn the result?
Laura Thornton: Very slim. When I was living in Georgia, we observed irregularities, and never once was any of them investigated or anyone brought to justice.
It just doesn't happen. Because there's a very politicized adjudication process in Georgia, both through the CEC (Central Election Commission), but also through the courts.
Not that we shouldn't try. The opposition and, equally importantly, domestic observers have filed complaints, and we should continue to pressure the resolution of those complaints.
But another thing that needs to happen on a parallel track is the parties coming together, including civil society, to implement needed reforms, which never happened. So the head of the CEC, the Central Election Commission, was not appointed through legal procedure because he or she was supposed to be appointed by a two-thirds majority of the parliament. It did not happen.
So there are several things that can be reformed, and then perhaps there should be an agreement to have early elections. But there needs to be some process by which these complaints are heard and some concessions are made by the Georgian Dream government.
The Kyiv Independent: What should be the steps of the U.S., the EU, and other democracies regarding Georgia and the elections?
Laura Thornton: It's very difficult because policymakers in the EU and the U.S. would love to have very specific, concrete data that demonstrate beyond a shadow of a doubt that this is the outcome or this is not the outcome. I think we will not get that in this election. It will be murkier.
But it doesn't stop U.S. and EU policymakers from saying: ‘We don't know.’Given the scale of irregularities, given the pre-election environment that was absolutely unacceptable for democratic standards, the international community can say, ‘We don't know. We cannot say these elections were free and fair.’
We're not saying that they don't reflect the will of the people. But (we can say) that, given the overall context of the election environment, we are not satisfied. This is a sign of democratic backsliding, and we expect to see massive change, not just in rhetoric but in action from the Georgian Dream government.
"This is a sign of democratic backsliding."
The Kyiv Independent: If, despite protests at home and protests abroad, the Georgian Dream stays in power, how will that affect the state of democracy in Georgia and its foreign policy orientation?
Laura Thornton: First, it'll be important to see what is the situation around the protests. I hope people will be allowed to protest peacefully without violence being used against them.
Unfortunately, as we saw during the protests against the foreign agents law, the government wielded tremendous violence. I have many friends who were beaten up by these ‘black robocops’ deployed by the state. I am hoping that the government does not do that against protesters.
But if the Georgian Dream pushes ahead and says, ‘We're the government,’ and does not take actions that I've already described — repealing the foreign agents law, repealing the anti-LGBTQ+ law, election reform, etc. — then I think that we have to change our mindset about Georgia and how we deal with Georgia. I don't think we can consider them a democratic partner.
I think it will be a decision by them — as we've seen over the last several years — to pivot away from European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations towards a Kremlin-friendly one.
And I don't think that we will have a constructive partnership. That's very depressing for Georgians, who overwhelmingly want to join the EU and NATO, but their government is working against those goals.
And I don't see much value in a partnership with Georgia without democracy, because democracy is Georgia's greatest asset, and our alliance with them is based on values. And if they're going to become Azerbaijan, then we have to question what are we getting out of this relationship.
The Kyiv Independent: How realistic do you think are Georgian Dream's threats to ban opposition parties?
Laura Thornton: They (Georgian Dream) themselves said they would need a constitutional majority to do that. So it seems unlikely, but you never know. They didn't have a constitutional majority to appoint the head of the Central Election Commission, and they did it anyway, with a simple majority.
So it's something that we need to keep our eye on. They're at a crossroads where they can pivot and actually take democratic actions, or they can go in the opposite direction. If they go in the opposite direction and threaten opposition, they've also promised trials to arrest civil society leaders and journalists.
They can start implementing the Foreign Agents Act, but they don't even need the Foreign Agents Act. We saw ahead of the election that they used other instruments of lawfare to go after Transparency International, whether it's about taxes or corruption. They went after the Atlantic Council, which is an international organization, and there are mysterious charges against two of my friends who work there.
Introducing official
merch from the Kyiv Independent
The Kyiv Independent: Some critics of the Georgian Dream say that at this trajectory, Georgia can end up being a full-blown autocracy, like Belarus. Do you think that's realistic?
Laura Thornton: I'm an optimist and I don't want to see that, but certainly that's possible. We've seen countries go in those directions, and it's heartbreaking. I also believe that the Georgian people have unbelievable resilience and a strong will, so a lot of different scenarios are possible.
It could be just closed autocracy and crackdowns. We could end up with a Venezuela-like situation, with strong actions from the foreign community and sanctions, sanctions against Bidzina (Ivanishvili).
Or you could see swelling public pressure that goes in the opposite direction, which we've seen in Georgia, and we've seen in Ukraine, and we've seen in 1986 in the Philippines, where (dictator Ferdinand) Marcos was put on an airplane and flown out of the Philippines because of the People Power (Revolution).
The Kyiv Independent: What would you say about President Salome Zourabichvili's statement when she compared the election to a Russian special operation and said that the ruling party used the methodology of Russian special services?
Laura Thornton: It's very difficult to know the role of Russian special services in Georgia. I have heard that even earlier in the spring, during protests against the ‘foreign agents’ law, there was some support from the Kremlin's special services. I don't know.
What I do know is that in terms of information operations during the pre-election environment and during the campaign, the Kremlin was very active. We saw very clearly how Kremlin information operations during the campaign were focused on turning Georgia away from the opposition and implementing fear of war, fear of a second front, fear of the global war party, and basically parroting Georgian Dream messages that this election is about war and peace.
"In terms of information operations during the pre-election environment and during the campaign, the Kremlin was very active."
What's important to note is that the Georgian Dream and Kremlin campaign messages were exactly the same. They were in lockstep. So, I do think that they were working in a coordinated way during the campaign, whether as formal information sharing or coincidentally.
The Kyiv Independent: You said that the Georgian population is, in majority, pro-NATO, pro-EU. The country has direct experience with Russian aggression. So how does the Georgian Dream maintain such a strong support? Even if the vote was tampered with, they still scored a strong result.
Laura Thornton: It's a really good question. We saw three major exit polls, one of which was an independent exit poll that was 10 points different from the CEC results, giving Georgian Dream about 40% or 42%.
So your question is, why does 40%, 42% of the Georgian public like the Georgian Dream?
There are a couple of reasons. One is information space. Particularly outside of Tbilisi, many people are getting their information from a dominant news channel called Imedi, which is very much a pro-Georgian Dream, pro-government news channel.
They're not exposed to a lot of opposition or independent news. Local independent media has been eviscerated. Local media really is critical and, unfortunately, underfunded in Georgia.
I used to do polling in Georgia, and when we would ask people about their information sources, a lot of the older generation didn't have access or didn't use the internet.
Second, the majority of people employed in Georgia are employed by the state. And there's a culture and practice in Georgia that state employees vote for the government because they fear that if they don't, they will lose their jobs. And that's not a silly fear.
Because we saw when there was a change of power before, many state employees — not just the political leadership, but (also) bureaucrats — lost their jobs.
And then the Georgian Dream — or previously, the UNM (United National Movement) — would go to state employees and say, you vote for Georgian Dream, or you're going to lose your job. There's that motivation. ‘I'm employed by the state. I'm a teacher. I'm a civil servant. I better do the status quo.’
Third, the most important issue: While Georgians definitely support the EU and NATO, if you ask them, and I asked them in my polling when I was there, what are the top five most important issues to you? Economy, economy, economy, economy, economy, not EU and NATO.
Economy, jobs, trade. Lots of Georgians are really dependent on trade with Russia. They do not want to have sanctions because they rely on that chain.
So when the Georgian Dream comes and provides all these right before the election, builds some bridges, builds some infrastructure projects, gives extra pensions, this means a lot to people.
Oleg Sukhov
The Kyiv Independent: How big of a role did the war in Ukraine play in the electoral campaign?
Laura Thornton: A very big role.
This is where the international community also needs to do better. We should be supporting Ukraine because Ukraine needs to win this war. Because Ukraine needs to be sovereign and independent. We also need to win this war because of countries like Georgia.
Because the Georgian Dream government thinks that Russia is winning and it doesn't think the international community has the resolve. They're making a bet, a calculation.
What's key is that it's not only about winning the war in Ukraine, it's winning the war for democracy, for the whole region, and maybe even more broadly for the world, for Taiwan, and for other places. And I think the Georgian Dream government manipulated the war and frightened the Georgian people.
And so their whole campaign was: ‘Do you want a second front? The U.S. is pushing Georgia into becoming a second front. Do you want to go to war?’
You might have seen the disgusting images that they put up of blown-out scenes from Ukraine of devastation and then a pristine Georgian church.
Absolutely shameful what they did. I'm sorry, I'm getting very emotional, but they were manipulating people. And if you're a Georgian citizen and you've experienced Abkhazia or 2008, that's effective messaging for anyone anywhere in the world.
Fear is an effective message. So, yes, they are definitely watching the war and manipulating it.
The Kyiv Independent: If the Georgian Dream stays in power, how do you think this will affect Georgia's relationship with Ukraine in the future?
Laura Thornton: Again, it depends on that road I told you about, whether they really change behavior and action. I think to many Georgian people, Ukraine and Georgia are sisters, and they've experienced the same violence from Russia and the same occupation.
It seems logical that they would be allies, friends, and supportive of one another. That's what you would hope to see. But I can't say that's the future because I don't know what the Georgian Dream is going to do.
