Reports that the embattled Ukrainian city of Chasiv Yar has fallen to Russian forces have been dismissed by experts and officials speaking to the Kyiv Independent, and the latest OSINT data suggests fighting is still ongoing.
The front-line city has become one of the hottest spots in Donetsk Oblast in recent months as Russian troops continue advancing in eastern Ukraine.
The battle for control of Chasiv Yar has been raging for months, with Ukraine's forces limiting Russian advances to a slow and incremental slog with both sides engaged in brutal street-to-street fighting.
On Jan. 29, the Moscow Times published a report declaring the city had fallen to Moscow's forces, citing five Ukrainian and European military and government sources.
Neither Ukraine nor Russia has officially commented directly on the report, but comments from Ukrainian military officials, OSINT analysts, and even Russian military bloggers all suggest fighting is still ongoing in Chasiv Yar.
Speaking on national TV on Jan. 29, Ruslan Muzychuk, spokesperson of the National Guard of Ukraine, made no mention of the fall of the city but acknowledged Russian attacks had "significantly intensified" and incorporated some of Moscow's best-trained troops.
"The enemy has recently increased the number of personnel involved in infantry assaults (in this direction)," he said, adding: "These are not only motorized rifle units, but also airborne regiments, and special forces battalions."
Muzychuk said Russian forces were employing a range of weapons to attack Ukrainian positions including aviation, artillery and fiber optic drones.
He added that urban warfare of the type being waged in the destroyed streets of Chasiv Yar was the "most difficult type of battle for infantry" for both defenders and attackers.
"That is why quite often the enemy tries to bypass the city by the flanks, this in particular, applies to Chasiv Yar," he added.
But while reports of Chasiv Yar's fall may be premature, the direction of the battle for the city is going in Russia's favor, albeit slowly.
The Battle for Chasiv Yar
The battle for Chasiv Yar has now been waged for months, beginning in April 2024 as part of Russia's grinding, slow, and costly advances in Donetsk Oblast.
After the fall of Bakhmut in May 2023 and the fall of Avdiivka in February 2024, Russian forces overran one village after another and took up positions close to Chasiv Yar.
Located on hills, Chasiv Yar boasts the highest point in the area, an important target for any army wanting to gain an advantage.
It is divided in the east by the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal, creating a barrier between the Kanal micro-district and the rest of the city.
Throughout most of spring, Kyiv's forces managed to keep Russian troops out of the city.
But since then, Moscow's forces have advanced incrementally into the city, reaching the canal and forcing Ukrainian forces to partially retreat in July.
The canal became the zero line and the front remained largely static in this area until Russian forces crossed it in mid-October.
Since then, Russian forces have continued to make small advances into Chasiv Yar, but according to experts and analysts, are still some way from taking the entire city.
Before Russia's full-scale invasion, Chasiv Yar was home to around 12,000 people. On Jan. 29, Ukraine's Interior Ministry posted an aerial view of the city on social media.
"After the arrival of the Russians, only a wasteland remains," the statement read.
Tim Zadorozhnyy
Who controls Chasiv Yar?
"I wouldn't say that Chasiv Yar has fallen yet," Emil Kastehelmi, an OSINT analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group and military history expert, told the Kyiv Independent.
"It's an unfavorable trend for the Ukrainians, but the Russian pace of advance has been so slow that it will take weeks or months before the battle of Chasiv Yar is over," he added.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Jan. 29 cited several OSINT analysts and Russian military bloggers and assessed that although Russian forces — including Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz forces — had made advances in Chasiv Yar and the surrounding area, there are no indication that the city had fallen.
"The Russians have actually made some progress inside the city," Kastehelmi said, adding Russian forces had taken "most of the northern parts of the city."
"The Ukrainians are still defending the southern and central parts, and there may also be some fighting going on near the northern parts of the city," he added.
If Russia were able to take the city, it would have a significant impact on the war in Donetsk Oblast and is crucial for Russia's larger offensive ambitions in the east.
Holding the city allows the military to retain fire control over key supply routes, severely hampering the opposing army’s operations in the area.
Ultimately, the fall of Chasiv Yar would mean the last Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk Oblast — the cities of Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk — would be under massive threat from Russian forces.
Additional reporting by Kateryna Hodunova and Tim Zadorozhnyy.
Kateryna Denisova
