Europe’s window to ban Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) is closing faster than we think.
As a second Trump administration takes shape, Europe's opportunity to impose new, meaningful measures on Russian fossil fuels is rapidly diminishing. U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war allegedly includes offering sanctions relief in exchange for peace. Whether true or not, Europe will soon lose its ability to act independently on energy sanctions as they become bargaining chips in a twisted geopolitical game of poker.
After nearly three years of full-scale war, Western sanctions on Russia are at a turning point. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s newly appointed envoy to Ukraine, has reportedly crafted a strategy that includes lifting certain sanctions as part of a negotiation process. This approach would undermine the leverage that Western nations — especially the European Union — have painstakingly built over the past three years. But whether Europe or Ukraine agrees with this strategy is irrelevant. This is Trump. We must plan for the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.
Regardless of Trump’s recent rhetoric and threats, Western sanctions on Russia are likely at — or near — their peak. Russia is currently subject to some 20,000 Western restrictions, but only a small subset — mainly financial and energy sanctions — carry significant weight. Within this landscape, one glaring issue remains: Russian LNG imports to Europe. These imports not only finance the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine but also fund Russia’s ongoing sabotage, attacks, and assassinations on European soil.
"Regardless of Trump’s recent rhetoric and threats, Western sanctions on Russia are likely at — or near — their peak."
Despite the EU’s stated goal of reducing reliance on Russian energy, European purchases of Russian LNG have surged in recent months, undermining Europe’s own industrial security. Every shipment of Russian LNG that enters European ports funnels revenue into the Kremlin’s war chest. The danger of inaction is clear. If reports of a 100-day or six-month negotiation window are accurate, Europe may soon lose the ability to ban Russian LNG altogether. Once negotiations begin, a Trump administration is unlikely to support new, hard-hitting measures that could complicate talks.
Imagine a scenario in which world leaders finally begin serious peace talks in the coming months. Would the West impose a new ban on Russian LNG in that context? Clearly not. The time to act is now — before negotiations begin — while Europe still holds the cards.
Some may argue that banning Russian LNG now is futile if it could later be reversed in a peace deal. This view overlooks two key points. First, implementing a ban now would significantly strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position. Second, banning Russian LNG would accelerate energy diversification across Europe, establishing new trade patterns that would be difficult — and unwise — to undo, even in the event of a future agreement.
The Trump administration is likely to pressure Europe to adopt its own sanctions policy, even at the expense of European interests. The U.S. has a history of urging the EU to dilute its measures, as seen with the oil price cap, which replaced the EU’s original plan for a full ban on Russian oil trade. By taking decisive action now, Europe can assert its autonomy and safeguard its long-term financial and strategic interests.
"The Trump administration is likely to pressure Europe to adopt its own sanctions policy, even at the expense of European interests."
By banning Russian LNG imports — potentially as part of its upcoming 16th sanctions package — the EU would send a strong message of unity and resolve to Moscow. To ensure a smooth transition, Ukrainian civil society encourages the European Commission to establish a fund to support member states and industries in moving away from gas and to strengthen energy partnerships with Ukraine, particularly in renewable energy development and grid interconnection.
The EU has taken a measured, long-term approach to phasing out Russian fossil fuels, carefully securing consensus and imposing bans incrementally. But the return of chaos agent Donald Trump forces the European Commission to make a critical decision. It can continue enabling Russia’s war machine through LNG imports — or it can take bold action to sever this toxic lifeline once and for all.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.
David Kirichenko
