Ukrainian servicemen firing toward Russian positions near Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on March 21, 2023.
Opinion

Why Ukraine needs Russia's terminal defeat – not just deterrence

by Lesia Ogryzko

Five years into the full-scale conflict, it has become clear that the model of strategic deterrence – the "steel porcupine" that Ursula von der Leyen often invokes when speaking about Ukraine –  offers no guarantee of resilience and long-term peace. The "steel porcupine" model assumes that, given Russia's significant resource advantage, Ukraine's only realistic strategy is to build a defense so strong that continued aggression becomes prohibitively costly for Russia. However, as of 2026, this

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Why Russia’s air defenses can’t protect its oil refineries from Ukrainian strikes

Since mid-April, Ukraine has struck the Tuapse oil terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast four times, triggering major fires at one of the country's key oil export hubs despite active air defenses and repeated Russian claims of intercepted drones. The attacks have caused days-long fires, halted refinery operations, polluted parts of the coastline, and forced authorities into prolonged emergency response efforts. This raises a question: If Russia maintains one of the largest air defense networks

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