Why Ukraine can't afford to demobilize its soldiers

Editor's note: Names of some service members have been changed or withheld for security reasons.

Asked recently in parliament when Ukrainian soldiers fighting since the first days of Russia's full-scale invasion would be coming home, President Volodymyr Zelensky replied: "When we defeat the enemy."

With the war now in its fourth year and no clear end in sight, Zelensky's remarks, delivered following a major government reshuffle, brought renewed attention to the deeply sensitive question of whether soldiers should be discharged from military service while the war is ongoing.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian government has not established a system for rotating troops out of long-term service or discharging them after extended deployments. Under the current legislation, demobilization is only permitted once martial law is lifted.

The challenge is less a question of legislation and more one of recruiting enough new soldiers to relieve those who have been on continuous duty since 2022. In short, Ukraine is not mobilizing enough troops each month to let soldiers demobilize, leaving families wondering when they will be reunited.

In May, Zelensky said Ukraine is currently mobilizing around 25,000 to 27,000 troops per month, while Russia mobilizes nearly twice that number. The president told the Economist in February of this year that Ukraine had mobilized 30,000 people a month in 2024.

Service member Dmytro, a soldier in the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, enlisted at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. He has been on duty for over three years, with no path — barring desertion — to leave the army.

"The lack of clear terms of service is a serious problem, as it is taking a toll on soldiers' mental health," Dmytro told the Kyiv Independent.

"At the same time, I honestly do not know how this could be addressed under current conditions. But if nothing changes, it will eventually hurt the Ukrainian Armed Forces as well."

Attempts to roll out changes to the regulations have been made before, although none have been successful.

A clause allowing soldiers to be discharged after three years of service was initially included in the 2024 mobilization bill. However, it was removed ahead of the second reading in parliament at the request of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, according to Ukrainska Pravda (UP).

In late January, the Defense Ministry also prepared a draft law regulating the dismissal and rotation of soldiers during martial law. But without backing from the General Staff, the proposal was not registered in parliament, UP reported.

And in April, the Armed Forces Communications Directorate told UP that the draft law on clear terms of service would go to parliament only if troop levels were sufficient to sustain the fight against Russia.

Why is discharge from service impossible for most?

Under martial law, Ukrainian soldiers can be discharged only under a narrow set of conditions, such as serious health issues, the need to raise a child, or caring for close relatives with severe illness or disability.

Volunteers aged 18 to 24 who are not subject to conscription can be discharged after one year of service if they have signed Contract 18-24, an initiative by the Defense Ministry to encourage more young people to join the army.

In most other cases, service members are required to remain on duty. They are entitled to 30 days of basic annual leave. Additional leave may be granted for family emergencies, medical treatment, recovery after captivity, or pregnancy.

However, even authorized leave can be denied if there are no available replacements, the unit's combat readiness would be compromised, or for other operational or organizational reasons.

"There is a sense of being a hostage, trapped by circumstances," Oleksii Nazarenko, a soldier currently serving in a unit specializing in unmanned systems, told the Kyiv Independent. "And we are all in the same boat with other soldiers, working together to shovel out the problems before they sink us."

Nazarenko has served in the army since the very beginning of the full-scale invasion. He moved between units seeking the greatest impact and, despite a shrapnel wound, returned, determined to keep serving.

But after over three years of continuous service, Nazarenko admitted to feeling worn down and said that another year would feel unbearable.

Meanwhile, in May, lawmaker Fedir Venislavskyi, member of the parliament's defense and intelligence committee, said during a press conference that mobilization had slowed compared to last year but remained enough to "hold the front line."

Despite official claims, Pavlo Kazarin, who is serving in the 104th Territorial Defense Brigade, raised doubts about the effectiveness of the mobilization, as clear service terms and rotations were not established, and Ukrainian units are still seeking replenishment.

Kazarin noted that several punitive measures for draft evaders, including the freezing of bank accounts, driving restrictions, and vehicle confiscation, were removed from the draft version of the mobilization law that came into effect on April 18, 2024. This step partly contributed to a decline in service discipline.

"If the government truly wanted to restore order, it would first need to make the cost of ignoring a draft summons so high that no one would dare toss it in the trash. The consequences should be severe enough that failing to comply with mobilization requirements would fundamentally change a person's life," Kazarin said.

The soldier also mentioned that the current administrative fine for failing to report to the enlistment office or attend a medical exam ranges from Hr 17,000 to 25,000 ($405–$600), adding that "this is not a price high enough to make anyone take action."

"Unfortunately, our mobilization efforts have fallen short of the desired targets. We are not talking about demobilization now, but about reinforcing the ranks to ease the burden on those who have served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces for over three years," Kazarin said.

Will Ukrainian soldiers see any relief soon?

Although the Defense Ministry asked parliament in December 2024 to extend the deadline for drafting a demobilization bill until March 18, 2025, no progress had been made as of July 21, according to Iryna Friz of the parliamentary committee on national security, defense, and intelligence.

According to Friz, some bills submitted by MPs and parliamentary groups as legislative initiatives are effectively blocked, as the main parliamentary committee refuses to consider them.

"From my point of view, this is a completely wrong and misguided position, because it directly affects the morale of those who have been in the combat zone since 2022. It is psychological, moral, and physical exhaustion, and it also directly impacts mobilization rates," Friz told the Kyiv Independent.

"What most frightens Ukrainians about mobilization is not the mobilization itself, but the uncertainty, specifically, the lack of clear terms of service under martial law," Friz added.

Although the bill remains stalled, military personnel continue to serve with no clear sense of what lies ahead. In the face of that uncertainty, each soldier finds their own way to stay mentally and physically strong as they carry on defending Ukraine.

"Frankly, I hope that if not for the draft law on clear terms of service, the war will end sooner or later," Dmytro, a soldier in the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, said. "But how will it end for us?"

Note from the author:

Hi, this is Kateryna, and I wrote this story for you. Like many Ukrainian families, mine has a loved one who has been serving since the earliest days of the full-scale invasion. I will not hide that going months without seeing him has been incredibly hard. That is why working on this piece was deeply personal for me.

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