Ukraine is facing a crossroads in its fight against Russia's full-scale invasion, with the possibility of being forced to reject an unfavorable peace deal being imposed under huge pressure from the U.S.
The red line for Kyiv could be a reported proposal from the White House that would give Russia de jure recognition of Crimea as a Russian territory — a move that would end more than a decade of bipartisan consensus rejecting the annexation, based on a bedrock of long-held international norms.
"Under Trump, the Crimean Declaration was signed during his first term in 2018, where the United States did not recognize Crimea as part of Russia," Volodymyr Ariev, a lawmaker with the European Solidarity Party, told the Kyiv Independent.
"If the U.S. violates this declaration, which it itself made, it will present itself as an unreliable partner worldwide… and open Pandora's box globally."
Ukraine finds itself in an immensely frustrating position, having done all that was asked of it by the U.S. since the peace process began in earnest, yet now facing demands that are likely impossible.
On March 11, Kyiv signed off on a U.S.-proposed, full 30-day truce, and has taken steps towards signing a mineral deal with Washington after Trump cut off military and intelligence sharing following a now infamous rebuke of Zelensky in the Oval Office in February.
Russia has refused to agree to a full ceasefire, and has continued devastating attacks against Ukrainian civilians, yet the White House has not applied any sanctions or pressure to get them to stop.
Despite this, the U.S. is now pushing a peace deal that rewards Russia's war of aggression, and strips Ukraine of territory with no security guarantees that could prevent Moscow from launching another war in the future.
This frustration was evident on April 23 when Zelensky said Ukraine insists on an "immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire."
"That was the proposal put forward by the United States on March 11 of this year — and it was absolutely reasonable," Zelensky said.
"This is absolutely possible – but only if Russia agrees and stops the killing."
With no sign of Russia signing up for a full ceasefire, the U.S. proposal is the only game in town — but it's loaded against Kyiv right from the outset.
The legal restraint
One of the most immediate problems in the event of the U.S. recognizing Crimea as Russian is that Ukrainian law does not allow Kyiv to agree to, or condone the move.
According to the Ukrainian Constitution, Crimea is a legally recognized and inseparable part of Ukraine.
No acts can be passed by the Ukrainian government that contradict the country's constitution. The constitution can’t be changed during martial law.
The only way Ukraine could legally recognize Crimea as Russian would be to hold a referendum on the issue and put the vote to the people. While recent polling shows the number of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions to end the war has risen, a majority still oppose the idea.
Further, polling has not specified between de facto and de jure control, with de jure likely to be more heavily opposed than de facto.
"No Ukrainian government has a mandate to recognize Crimea as Russian," Halyna Yanchenko, a lawmaker from the Servant of the People party, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Any peace agreement that includes such a provision would risk sparking unrest within the country. That’s why no Ukrainian leadership would ever agree to it.
"And there is simply no chance such a deal would pass a vote in Ukraine’s Parliament."
The immediate steps for Ukraine
If the U.S. is proposing recognizing Crimea de jure as Russian, Ukraine's immediate priority should be to lobby against it, Ukrainian political analyst Yevhen Magda, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Ukraine must privately persuade the U.S. of the inadvisability of such a move," he said.
"Trump’s team should understand that no serious Ukrainian politician would accept such a step, and any proposal aimed at satisfying Putin’s ambitions would only consolidate Ukrainian society around Volodymyr Zelensky — not weaken it."
Chris York
Magda's sentiment is shared by Ian Garner, assistant professor in totalitarian studies at Poland's Pilecki Institute, who told the Kyiv Independent that if he were "in the room with Zelensky right now," he'd be telling him that Ukraine has to "make every effort to continue to get the Americans back on board."
"But we have to plan assuming that America will not only cease to intervene in the conflict, but may actually, whether intentionally or not, advance Russia's aims and Russia's goals," he adds.
If persuasion fails
The rhetoric coming from the White House suggests the Trump administration will have little patience for anything that diverges from the plan they have already set in motion, including whichever proposals are contained within it.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on April 23 that the U.S. presented a "very explicit proposal" to Russia and Ukraine on a peace deal, repeating warnings Washington might drop its peace effort if the belligerent sides refuse.
Talking to journalists during a visit to India, Vance said Washington presented a "very explicit proposal" to Russia and Ukraine, adding it is time for Kyiv and Moscow "to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process."
Trump put it even more bluntly last week.
"If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we're just going to say: 'you're foolish, you're fools, you're horrible people,' and we're just going to take a pass," he said.
All of this risks playing into the hands of the Kremlin, with both Moscow and Washington potentially being able to point to Ukraine's refusal to go along with the proposal as the main sticking point of negotiations.
"It will be considered as a provocation with a view (for the U.S.) to exit negotiations and to put the blame on the victim of the aggression," Oleksandr Merezhko, lawmaker and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.
A US withdrawal
With Ukraine being blamed for the breakdown in peace talks, the U.S. could well follow through on its threat to withdraw, giving Russia what it wanted all along since negotiations began — a free hand to carry on the war.
"Unfortunately, Trump’s team not only lacks a clear and adequate plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian war — they also fail to understand Ukraine’s needs and have, in fact, become a target of reflexive control by the Kremlin," Magda said.
With its main supplier of military aid out of the picture, Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia's full-scale invasion would be largely reliant on Europe, a prospect that is far more realistic than it was just a few months ago, but still unlikely to fill the gap left by Washington in the near-term.
Europe has only been discussing sending troops to Ukraine in the context of a peacekeeping force to back up a peace deal, and while it is making moves to ramp up defense spending and production, it will be months if not years until it can supply the weapons Ukraine needs in the quantities that will be effective to push Russia back.
"Ukraine has to count on itself and its own resourcefulness," Garner said.
Ukraine is producing 30% of the weapons it needs itself, Zelensky said earlier this year, and it has managed to stabilize the front line in the east against a Russian army that is facing its own supply and manpower issues.
Garner believes that it is "quite possible and quite plausible" for Ukraine to "hold a defensive line, but added that "it's not going to be easy."
"It's going to require continued large-scale sacrifices in terms of lives, in terms of money," he said.
In the meantime, he said Ukraine should "continue to advocate for itself, continue to Europeanize, continue to fight corruption, continue to democratize, and to move itself ever further towards its allies in Europe."
"Because that's the thing that's going to stop Vladimir Putin, right?” Garner said. “If the people are Europeanized and liberalized, then they are never going to accept Russian invasion and Russian occupation, whether it's diplomatic, political, economic, cultural or indeed military."
Chris York
