The following is the April 9, 2025 edition of our Ukraine Business Roundup weekly newsletter. To get the biggest news in business and tech from Ukraine directly in your inbox, subscribe here.
President Trump shocked the world on April 2 when he announced what he dubbed “Liberation Day,” slapping tariffs on allies and rivals alike. Ukraine was hit with a 10% tariff on all its goods, apart from metal products, which already had a 25% tariff imposed on them in March.
This will be “difficult but not critical for the country’s economy,” said Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko. Ukraine’s trade with the U.S. was already on a decline and only made up around 2% of Ukraine’s total exports last year, economist Oleksandra Myronenko from the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) told the Kyiv Independent.
You can read the full interview with Myronenko here.
Many in Ukraine were quick to point out that Russia and Belarus were excluded from the list of countries that got tariffs put on them — to some, this seemed like yet another sign Trump is favoring Russia and even its ally Belarus over Ukraine.
Why did Trump tariff nearly the entire world? Trump claims the U.S. is the victim of a trade imbalance and accused countries of “looting, raping, pillaging, and plundering the U.S.” He believes tariffs will help kick-start American industry, despite ecomists arguing it will cause a global recession.
When confronted with the decision to exclude Russia and Belarus, the White House said it hardly traded with them and that the two countries were already under sanctions.
However, the U.S. still imported $3 billion worth of goods from Russia last year — over three times the value of Ukrainian imports and far more than the uninhabited Heard and McDonald Islands, which received a 10% tariff despite only housing penguins and seals.
What does this mean for Ukraine? The Economy Ministry said it is rolling out support programs for businesses to ease the impact of the tariffs, especially for smaller companies that will be most affected. Ukraine said it will not retaliate with tariffs of its own on American imports, which reached $3.4 billion last year.
Steel products like pig iron and pipes were Ukraine’s largest exports to the U.S. Agricultural exports, like food and fertilizers, were also notable and will decline slightly, said Myronenko.
Yet, the biggest problem will be the knock-on effect of a trade war. Already, markets are bracing for a recession as other countries face off with Washington.
China threatened 34% tariffs on American goods, leading Washington to respond with an additional 50% tariff on China on top of the 34% tariff it imposed last week and a previous 20% levy.
The EU, Ukraine’s largest trading partner, is also threatening the U.S. with tariffs after Washington imposed a 20% tariff on all European goods.
A trade war will lead to a contracted global economy that will also be felt in Ukraine, warned Myronenko.
A little bit of positive news. Trump may have inadvertently dealt a major blow to Russia’s war machine. On the back of the tariffs, oil prices have slumped massively as producers brace for a recession. The upside is that Russian oil prices have also nosedived, with Ural crude falling to a 21-month low of $51.54 per barrel.
Moscow budgeted $70 per barrel this year, and prices below $60 could severely hinder Russia’s revenues. Oil sales make up nearly a third of Russia’s budget, and with no sign of a rebound anytime soon, Russia’s precariously balanced economy faces fresh pressure.
You can read my latest story on Russia’s oil price crisis here.
Minerals deal: More drama
Kyiv has been wrapped up in drama after the Financial Times leaked the latest draft of the minerals deal last week.
The leak, which was also shared by former Ukraine Reconstruction Agency Head Mustafa Nayyem, inflamed already heightened tensions with Washington. In response, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he sent out the security services to track down the leak’s source.
Kyiv is subjecting employees of different ministries to controversial lie detector tests, the Financial Times reported. Polygraph tests have questionable results but are commonly used in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have declined to say how many people have been questioned.
The leaked draft led to an uproar in Ukraine as it would effectively give the U.S. unprecedented control over Ukraine's natural resources and infrastructure. Experts also told the Kyiv Independent that it could derail Ukraine’s EU accession by undermining a previous minerals proposal Kyiv signed with Brussels back in 2021. You can read the full story on that here.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused Ukraine’s leadership of disrupting the deal in an interview with far-right U.S. commentator Tucker Carlson. Despite the huge backlash in Ukraine, he stuck to the line that the deal is a “win-win” and a “genuine economic partnership.”
He also claimed that Russia “didn’t like the look” of this deal because it was “something durable” for both the U.S. and Ukraine.
What's next? Kyiv’s crackdown after the leak has spooked officials, who are now even more tight-lipped about the negotiation process.
We know that a Ukrainian delegation will visit the U.S. this week, led by the Economy Ministry and joined by the Finance Ministry and Foreign Affairs Ministry. A law firm will also join the delegation to help with the negotiation.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on April 8 that Ukraine has prepared its position on the deal and its “vision” of the text. He stressed that the deal should benefit both Ukraine and the U.S. without risking Ukraine’s EU membership.
Cybersecurity: Massive data breach
In an article published last week, Kyiv Independent reporter Kollen Post revealed that shoddy cybersecurity at Ukrainian vehicle inspections has exposed hundreds of thousands of personal documents for the past four years.
The lack of security placed reams of personal data at risk of exploitation by bad actors, including Russian intelligence and hackers.
The data leak comes as Ukraine has been — in theory — on high alert about cybersecurity for over three years.
Formerly public data for many Ukrainian services have gone dark since Russia’s full-scale invasion. This is in large part out of concern that Russian intelligence or hackers will use information from sources like property registries to locate, blackmail, and extort Ukrainians.
In this leak — largely scans of passports, taxpayer identification numbers, driver’s licenses, and vehicle registrations — the documents span a broad stretch of Ukrainian geography and demography. Mostly, they identify people who were buying or selling used cars internationally.
Up until April 1, the documents were available, unprotected and unencrypted, on a server of one of the largest cloud storage providers in the world that, though tough to get to for regular users, is easy enough to find for bad actors.
The Kyiv Independent contacted the relevant authorities on March 26, including the Digital Transformation Ministry, the Communities Development Ministry, the State Security Service, and the Justice Ministry.
All denied ownership of the data. Yet, after repeated follow-up, the data on the server began to go private on April 1, 2025 — just shy of three years after Jake Dixon, cybersecurity and access management specialist who spotted the documents, first reported the problem to Ukrainian authorities.
As of publication, none of the officials contacted would acknowledge involvement in taking the data offline, but someone was clearly reacting to inquiries.
Read the full story here.
What else is in the news
Ukrainian steelmaker receives first batch of US coking coal after Pokrovsk mine halt
Metinvest, Ukraine's largest steel producer, has received the first shipment of 80,000 metric tons of coking coal from its U.S.-based enterprise this year, the company said on April 8. The U.S. supplies are meant to offset the loss of coking coal from the mine near Pokrovsk, which has suspended operations as Russian forces are closing in on the Donetsk Oblast town.
Ferrexpo cuts pellet production by 26% after Ukraine suspends VAT refunds
The company said in a press release on April 7 that it had scaled back its operations as a result of a VAT refund suspension, which amounted to approximately $12.5 million for January. On March 27, Ferrexpo announced that Ukrainian tax authorities had suspended VAT refunds to the company due to personal sanctions imposed on its owner, businessman Kostyantyn Zhevago. The company contended that these sanctions should not be leveraged to apply financial pressure on Ferrexpo, particularly given that the majority of its voting shares are held by international investors.
Germany finances Ukraine's use of Starlink alternative Eutelsat, Reuters reports
Germany is financing Ukraine's access to a satellite internet network operated by French company Eutelsat, Reuters reported on April 4, citing Eutelsat CEO Eva Berneke. The service serves as an alternative to tech billionaire Elon Musk's Starlink, which has played a key role in Ukraine's battlefield communications. Ukraine currently has fewer than 1,000 terminals connecting to Eutelsat's network, but Berneke said the company aims to increase that number to between 5,000 and 10,000 "relatively fast."
Ukraine facing $10 billion deficit for reconstruction in 2025
According to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, international donors have allocated nearly $7.4 billion for "priority recovery projects" in 2025, leaving a nearly $10 billion deficit to finance reconstruction projects in 2025. "According to the updated RDNA4 (Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment) assessment, Ukraine’s total reconstruction cost is estimated at $524 billion over the next decade," Shmyhal said on Telegram.
Ukrainian bakery Lviv Croissants to enter South Korean market
The Ukrainian chain Lviv Croissants will open a restaurant in Seoul in South Korea, Ukrainian media outlet AIN reported on April 2, citing a company representative. Founded in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv in 2015, the chain has since grown to over 190 locations across Ukraine, Poland, Slovakia, the U.S., and France. The franchise is known for its croissants stuffed with both sweet and savory fillings.
