Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump plans to end the Russian war in Ukraine by freezing it if he wins the U.S. presidential election, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Oct. 28, citing its sources close to the former president's team.
Trump has claimed he would end Russia's war within "24 hours" without elaborating on how he plans to achieve it. Some reports and statements from Trump's inner circle indicate this might entail pressuring Ukraine to cede territory or give up on its NATO aspirations.
Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance, in September, outlined the idea of freezing the war by establishing autonomous regions on both sides of the demilitarized zone and leaving Ukraine outside NATO, according to the FT.
According to one of Trump's longtime advisors, the new plan would rethink the failed Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, which were never implemented. The agreements contained a plan that would create autonomous zones in Russian occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Occupied Crimea was not mentioned in the Minsk Agreement.
The new plan will include enforcement mechanisms and consequences for violating the agreement, the adviser said. But, in his opinion, European troops, not NATO forces or U.N. peacekeepers, will have to keep order.
"There are two things America will insist on. We will not have any men or women in the enforcement mechanism. We’re not paying for it. Europe is paying for it," he added.
Chris York
Trump's allies argue that Ukraine is losing the war and, therefore, pushing for a settlement is morally right. Trump believes that Biden should talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as presidents did with Soviet leaders during the Cold War, and that NATO membership is not an option for Ukraine in the short term.
Fred Fleitz, a former CIA analyst who served in Trump's White House and is now at the America First Policy Institute Center for American Security, suggested in an interview with the FT that Ukraine's membership in NATO could be taken off the agenda for several years to force Russia to the negotiating table.
"We freeze the conflict, Ukraine does not cede any territory, they don't give up their territorial claims, and we have negotiations with the understanding there probably won't be a final agreement until Putin leaves the stage," Fleitz said.
This approach, though, will not have unanimous support within the Republican Party, the FT reported, citing the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Mike Waltz, one of the foremost Republican speakers on national security in the House of Representatives, suggested that Trump could threaten to collapse the Russian economy by lowering oil and gas prices to bring Putin to the negotiating table.
"You flood the world with cheaper, cleaner American oil and gas. You drive down the price," Waltz added.
Saudi Arabia, an important ally of Trump's during his first term, would not welcome such a move. Yet people close to Trump insist he will put economic solid pressure on Putin.
"He (Trump) has shown he knows how to bring both sides to the table," said Ric Grenell, who was an outspoken ambassador to Berlin and a Balkans envoy in Trump's first term, recalling the Abraham Accords, the agreements signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, when Trump was in office.
"He's done it consistently. Arabs and Israelis, Russians and Ukrainians will be next."
Martin Fornusek
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