Editor's note: This is a breaking story and will be updated regularly.
Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) against Dnipro, east Ukraine on the morning of Nov. 21, Kyiv's Air Force reported.
If confirmed, it would be the first time the Kremlin has used such a weapon in an attack on Ukraine.
In the early hours of Nov. 21, a country-wide air raid alert sounded due to the threat of ballistic missiles, and later, the launch of several Russian Tu-95MS bomber aircraft.
According to Ukraine's Air Force, the attack targeted the city of Dnipro using a number of different missile types.
"In particular, an intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation, an Kh-47M2 'Kinzhal' aeroballistic missile from a MiG-31K fighter jet was launched from the Tambov region, and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles were fired from Tu-95MS strategic bombers," the report said.
The report did not specify what type of ICBM was launched. Astrakhan Oblast is located in southern Russia, over 700 kilometers (435 miles) east of Dnipro. The region borders Kazakhstan, Russia’s Kalmykia Republic, Volgograd Oblast, and the Caspian Sea.
An industrial enterprise was damaged, and two fires broke out in the city, Governor Serhii Lysak said. A rehabilitation center for people with disabilities was damaged in the attack, Mayor Borys Filatov said.
At least two people are reported to have been injured.
Ukraine's Air Force said six of the Kh-101 missiles were reportedly shot down, but did not say if the reported ICBM had caused any of the damage in Dnipro.
What is an intercontinental ballistic missile?
Russia regularly uses close, and short range ballistic missiles in aerial attacks against Ukraine, but ICBMs are far larger, can be equipped with nuclear payloads, and are designed to hit targets at far longer ranges.
Ballistic missiles are rocket-powered and are launched high into the atmosphere before arcing back down onto their target.
They're only guided during the initial stages of launch, so they can be less accurate than cruise missiles, but have the advantage of reaching incredibly high speeds — sometimes more than 3,200 kilometers per hour — as they approach their targets.
Crucially, ballistic missiles also have a very long range — anything from around 1,000 kilometers, up to over 5,000 kilometers, in the case of ICBMs.
Until now, Russia has used several models of shorter-range ballistic missiles, including the Iskander and the Kinzhal. Due to their high speed, only certain air defense systems are capable of shooting them down, the U.S.-made Patriot system being one of them.
What sort of intercontinental ballistic missile did Russia launch?
This has yet to be confirmed, but on Nov. 20 Ukrainian media reported that Russia was preparing to test, or launch, an RS-26 Rubezh medium-range ICBM.
The Rubezh is reported to have a range of up to 6,000 kilometers, can carry four warheads each with an estimated payload of 0.3 megatons.
If confirmed, it would mean the launch had "virtually no military value," Fabian Hoffmann, a defense expert and doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, told the Kyiv Independent.
He points out that Russia is not known to possess a non-nuclear warhead for the Rubezh, meaning it's likely it carried a "weight simulator, instead of a warhead."
Hoffman adds that the Rubezh is equipped with a MIRV payload, which stands for Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles. Purported footage of the attack shows multiple projectiles hitting the ground, but without the large explosions normally associated with conventional missiles or payloads.
"So this strike is not for military value, this is purely, purely for political purposes," he added.
Chris York
What are those political purposes?
The attack came in the wake of what appeared to be Ukraine's first successful strike of a military target inside Russia using the U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles.
After depicting such a move as crossing another "red line" the Kremlin had drawn, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country would respond.
"They probably considered testing a nuclear warhead, which was also rumored to happen soon, but decided that's too intense, and that could invite too much backlash, especially from partners, such as China and India," Hoffman said.
"And then they probably thought that this is the next best option, because it sends a clear signal to the West, while potentially not antagonizing critical international partners."
Hoffman added he expects this was a one-off rather than a new strategy from the Kremlin, given he estimates the cost of one Rubezh to be north of $10 million, making continued attacks highly cost-ineffective.
How can Ukraine intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles?
Ukraine's U.S.-supplied Patriots have been effective at intercepting the ballistic missiles launched by Russia to date, but according to Defense Express, they are not currently optimized to intercept ICBMs.
If Russia began to regularly launch ICBMs, Ukraine's air defenses would need to be bolstered by more advanced air defense systems like the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), the outlet reported.
Chris York
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