ISTANBUL — Russian President Vladimir Putin had rebuffed President Volodymyr Zelensky, his European allies, and the U.S., and in response, Donald Trump simply went along with it, excusing his Russian counterpart for not attending the peace talks in Istanbul that Putin himself proposed.
As the Russian and Ukrainian delegations emerged from the Istanbul palace on May 16 after just two hours, there were glimmers of hope, with both sides agreeing on what will be the largest prisoner swap yet.
But as details of the meeting began to leak, one thing was clear — Russia has no appetite for a ceasefire, no intention of stopping the war in Ukraine, and months of Trump-led peace talks have done nothing to sate the Kremlin's maximalist demands first floated back in 2022 at the start of the invasion.
"Putin is laughing at Trump in front of the whole world," a Ukrainian infantryman identified only by his callsign "Mamai" in accordance with military protocols, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Based on the results of three years of war, in Putin’s eyes, all the leaders of the Western world are weaklings and suckers."
Day 2 in Istanbul
After a Day 1 that descended into a name-calling shambles without even delivering any talks, hopes were slightly higher on May 16 that the two delegations would meet, if only because this time they were both definitely in the same city from the get go.
Delayed by an hour, the talks began at lunchtime and were over less than two hours later.
On a positive note, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement for the exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) on a 1,000-for-1,000 basis, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who was leading Ukraine's delegation, told reporters after the talks.
"We have experienced around 26 ceasefire agreements from 2014 till 2022 — none of them were taken seriously by the Russians."
A source in the Ukrainian President's Office briefed on the talks told the Kyiv Independent that Kyiv also offered an immediate ceasefire, and to hold a face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Putin.
In return, the Russian delegation refused, instead insisting that Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts, despite Russia not controlling any of them in their entirety.
The Kremlin illegally declared the annexation of the four oblasts following sham referenda in late 2022, incorporating them into Russia’s constitution — a move that holds no weight internationally.
"The Russians, as predicted, have demonstrated complete unreadiness for real negotiations," Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a lawmaker from the Holos party, told the Kyiv Independent.
The general view from Ukraine — forged by more than a decade of Russian aggression — is that Russia is simply stalling for time, preparing for more military offensives over the summer, a predictable continuation of the same motive that has driven the Kremlin since 2014 — the desire to take more Ukrainian land.
"We have experienced around 26 ceasefire agreements from 2014 to 2022 — none of them were taken seriously by the Russians," Ukrainian lawmaker Mariia Mezentseva told the Kyiv Independent.
"By again refusing a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, it means that Russian authorities are just playing everyone for fools and taking the time to regroup," she added.
"In my home, Kharkiv Oblast, our soldiers already see their movements with an intention to occupy more territories."Multiple signs suggest it's more than just Kharkiv Oblast in Russian sights — for months, Ukraine has been warning of build-ups of Russian forces and intensifying assaults near Sumy Oblast.
Behind enemy lines
For millions of Ukrainians, Russian occupation is already a reality. The path the U.S.-led peace talks have taken thus far is compounding fears that occupation may become permanent.
"I am afraid that the (possible) demarcation line will become a new Berlin Wall," a person currently living in Russian-occupied Hola Prystan, Kherson Oblast, their name withheld for security reasons, told the Kyiv Independent, in comments obtained with the assistance of the Helping to Leave organization.
"I want to be able to talk to my family, who will be on both sides of this line, and to visit each other — I want to see Ukrainian flags fluttering in Ukrainian Hola Prystan. I want to live there," they added.
"I am very afraid that these predators, Trump and Putin, will tear apart and plunder Ukraine, turn it into a colony, and turn us into slaves."
The very fact Russia has resurrected the same demands it put forward in March and April of 2022, when Kyiv's ability to fight back with united Western support wasn't certain, is a damning indictment of the effect Trump's push for peace has had on Ukraine.
"I am very afraid that these predators, Trump and Putin, will tear apart and plunder Ukraine, turn it into a colony, and turn us into slaves," a woman currently living in Russian-occupied Stara Zburivka, Kherson Oblast, told the Kyiv Independent
"Is it possible to find words that could convey the grief of a mother who is burying her son? I gave my son and received a flag in memory of him," she added.
"Mr. Trump, do not trade land and treasures that do not belong to you — I'm begging you to help us drive this ferocious Russian pack out of our country."
"He is not ready to accept that Russia is cheating him and making him look like a fool."
In Kyiv, lawmakers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent are wondering one thing: how long Trump will allow himself to be played by Putin.
"He is not ready to accept that Russia is cheating him and making him look like a fool," Volodymyr Ariev, a Ukrainian lawmaker from the opposition European Solidarity party, told the Kyiv Independent.
"In the current situation, Ukraine faces more months of war, Russia will continue the shelling of peaceful Ukrainian cities, and I think that real negotiations will only be possible next year."
After the talks ended on May 16, Zelensky and several top European leaders held a phone call with Trump, the Ukrainian leader announced on Telegram.
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk joined Zelensky during the call.
"Ukraine is ready to take the fastest possible steps for real peace, and it is important that the world holds strong positions," Zelensky wrote.
But despite Russia now entering a third month of refusing to agree to Trump's original demand of a full, 30-day ceasefire, Trump has so far appeared happy to take what the Kremlin says at face value.
Lamenting the differences in Western unity and the U.S. position on Russia under Presidents Trump and Joe Biden, Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko told the Kyiv Independent the current White House's "illogical and inconsistent" approach meant Ukraine was now in a worse position than at any time since the early days of the full-scale invasion.
"We lost this resolve and lost this consistency because of Trump," he said.
Two days, and little to show
After all the hype and expectations, the Istanbul meeting didn't deliver. Ukraine spent a lot of political capital trying to corner Putin, and, without U.S. support, it didn’t work.
The U.S. sent Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was sceptical to begin with, and who is likely leaving just as sceptical.
Russia spent some political capital too, though, and there are only so many times Putin will be able to pull this off before the growing echoes of European discontent finally reach American ears.
"What is interesting here," Ambassador Kurt Volker, a former U.S. special representative for Ukraine, told the Kyiv Independent, "is that the spotlight keeps getting brighter on Putin."
"The U.S., Europe, and Ukraine all call for a ceasefire, Putin then says negotiate. The U.S. and Ukraine say OK, let’s negotiate, and then Putin is a no-show. I don’t know how much longer this can go on."
Regardless, the U.S. position on the war in Ukraine hasn’t quite evolved enough for the White House to start tightening the screws on the Kremlin. Not yet, anyway.
At best, the Istanbul talks chipped away at American assumptions that Russia is an honest broker; at worst, Putin played for time, and left with the clock.
Natalia Yermak
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