North Korean troops fighting in Kursk Oblast are especially vulnerable to drones but still managed to help Moscow advance a few kilometers in the partially Ukrainian-occupied region in southwest Russia, according to Western military experts analyzing open-source data.
The assessment of drone vulnerability differs from an on-the-ground testimony obtained by the Kyiv Independent, in which a Special Forces serviceman disclosed how North Korean troops were well-protected by Russia’s electronic warfare, which effectively counters drones.
The contrasting evaluations highlight the opacity of reports from Kursk Oblast, where a third party’s troops entered the battle.
There are about 12,000 North Korean troops deployed in Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine launched a surprise cross-border incursion in August to bring the war to Russia, a senior Ukrainian official familiar with the intelligence told the Kyiv Independent. Some of them were already sent on assault missions, and they have proven to lack experience with most modern weapons, especially various types of drones, the official added.
Each North Korean platoon accompanies a larger company of Russian paratroopers to reclaim Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast, according to the official. In exchange for the troop transfer, Russia is paying over $2,000 for each North Korean soldier, though it is unclear how much is allocated for the individual soldier and the Pyongyang government, the official added.
Russia could also transfer technologies to North Korea to produce and improve “weapon characteristics,” a move that could further deepen Moscow-Pyongyang ties, the official said, adding that North Korea is already improving its ballistic missiles by observing Russia's use of them in Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent couldn’t independently verify the information shared by the official.
The assessments come a few days after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 14 that Russia had begun deploying “a significant number” of North Korean soldiers for assault operations in Kursk Oblast. Russia has launched waves of counterattacks since September to reclaim the thin Ukrainian-occupied salient in Kursk Oblast.
The Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) reported the fighting with Pyongyang’s troops – in particular from the 94th Separate brigade of the North Korean army – to be in the lower part of the Ukrainian-controlled salient, as close as a few kilometers from the Ukrainian border, in Kursk Oblast.
A South Korean lawmaker told the media on Dec. 19 that at least 100 North Korean troops have been killed and another 1,200 wounded amid the lack of experience with terrain and drone warfare.
A senior U.S. military official, cited in a Dec. 17 Associated Press article, said that a couple hundred North Korean troops have thus far been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast.
Are North Koreans vulnerable to modern warfare?
Ukrainian officials briefed on the intelligence and Western military analysts named drones to be a challenge for North Korean troops, thereby sustaining heavy casualties.
Not knowing how to protect themselves from Ukrainian Unmanned Aerial vehicles (UAVs), the reality of the first drone war has been “a new challenge” for the North Korean troops, a source in the HUR military intelligence told the Kyiv Independent.
The HUR source said that Russia set up additional positions to counter drones to protect North Korean troops from the vulnerability.
A serviceman in the Ukrainian Special Forces sabotage and reconnaissance group that identifies as UA_REG TEAM, deployed in Kursk Oblast, said that North Korean troops are well-protected by the umbrella of electronic warfare from drones.
“From the first day, electronic warfare works quite well at places where the North Koreans are entrenched, which prevents you from conducting quality reconnaissance,” the serviceman, who introduced himself as Yaroslav, told the Kyiv Independent.
North Korean troops hold a narrow section of the front where they can outnumber Ukrainian troops, according to Yaroslav, who declined to disclose his last name due to security concerns. Their good command of tactics and physical fitness allow them to quickly evade or escape open terrain, he added.
“(North Korean troops) move quickly in a column one at a time until the first shot is fired and then quickly form a line to maneuver,” Yaroslav said.
The serviceman also suggested that Russia had given them orders not to leave behind any bodies of North Korean troops, given how quickly they are cleared compared to the bodies of regular Russian soldiers.
Ukrainian foothold in Kursk Oblast at risk
Ukraine has slowly been losing ground in Kursk Oblast since September, with a senior General Staff official confirming to Reuters in late November that it had lost over 40% of the territory it previously captured in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly pessimistic about the fate of the Kursk operation, with a growing number questioning the cost of an incursion into another country’s territory when the defense of one’s own land is uncertain.
While confirming that the troops featured in videos of at least two separate assault operations surfacing the internet since Dec. 14 are certainly North Koreans is difficult, the troops operate differently and "in a manner that would be expected of North Koreans," according to Pasi Paroinen at Finland-based open-source analytical organization Black Bird Group.
The apparent North Korean infantry is "very well-spaced out,” which helps reduce casualties from indirect artillery or drone fires and makes it harder to target them at once, Paroinen said. The North Korean troops are also moving as a cohesive unit in larger numbers than observed from Ukrainian or Russian troops, he added.
John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said exposing the troops to modern realities of the war, including with drones, is "definitely" part of Pyongyang's goals to bolster its military.
“Overall, it'll be important to see whether this North Korean contingent is the beginning of the end of the North Korean deployment or if it's the prelude to a larger and more steady stream of troops,” Hardie told the Kyiv Independent.
"It'll be important to see whether this North Korean contingent is the beginning of the end of the North Korean deployment or if it's the prelude to a larger and more steady stream of troops."
“At this rate, seeing how badly the latest round of Russian offensives went (in November), I think a lot will now depend on how well the North Koreans will perform – if they can tip the scales,” Paroinen told the Kyiv Independent.
“(North Korean troops) certainly change up the game now that they are using different tactics to what the Ukrainians are used to and they will bring the numbers.”
The Ukrainian official briefed on the intelligence, speaking anonymously, said that there are no signs that Russia would deploy North Korean troops en masse in Ukraine in the near future, as Moscow is focused on reclaiming the entirety of Kursk Oblast.
Paroinen from the Black Bird Group estimated that, as of December, Ukraine still controlled less than 500 square kilometers of Kursk Oblast, which is roughly the size of Chicago.
