Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast has derailed Russia's plans to dictate a peace deal on its terms and strengthened Ukraine's hand in any future negotiations, Ukrainian officials and analysts say.
“We must force Russia, with all our might and together with our partners, to make peace,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a meeting with Ukrainian diplomats on Aug. 19 where he called for a second peace summit this year.
The Kursk incursion "is breaking Russia's negotiating strategy," Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, a regular talking head on Ukrainian state TV, told the Kyiv Independent.
Russia had previously expected to impose its peace terms on Ukraine because it held the initiative by gradually gaining ground in the Donbas since late 2023, but the Kursk incursion is changing that trend, he added.
The Kursk operation, where in two weeks Ukraine’s army captured Russian turf comparable in size to what Russia’s army had taken in the Donbas over a costly 10-month offensive, has sparked frustration in Russia. Kremlin officials are crying foul that the first invasion of Russian territory by a foreign power since World War II has dealt a blow to potential peace talks.
"The president (Vladimir Putin) has made it very clear that after the attacks on Kursk Oblast began... there can be no talk of negotiations," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Aug. 19.
Prospects for a near-term peace deal were considered distant even before Ukraine’s stunning land grab in Kursk Oblast. Both sides remain locked in posturing mode, trying to bolster international support for their peace plan strategy while simultaneously focusing on making battlefield gains to boost their leverage: Ukraine in Kursk Oblast and Russia in the Donbas.
The leverage Kyiv gains now could be critical in the future, especially if Donald Trump is once again elected president in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election and pushes his controversial peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. While some in Trump’s camp have called for boosting arms supplies to Ukraine, others have questioned U.S. backing for Kyiv and suggested a peace deal could involve Ukraine ceding occupied territory to Russia.
It’s unclear where such a plan stands now that Ukraine occupies a small part of Russian territory.
The leverage gained by Ukraine could also boost its chances of getting more U.S. support and achieving victory if Trump’s opponent, current Vice President Kamala Harris, is elected.
“If elected, Kamala Harris should make it an explicit goal to turn today’s horrendous war of attrition into a Ukrainian victory,” Anders Aslund, a professor at Georgetown University, said in an Aug. 20 op-ed for the Kyiv Independent. “Ukraine’s surprising offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast may be the beginning of a more promising development.”
Analysts say that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demonstrated his refusal to accept any peace terms other than Ukraine's surrender or ceding of territory.
Putin is unlikely to cancel the annexation of any Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine will not recognize almost 20 percent of its occupied territory as belonging to Russia, analysts said.
Another scenario is a brokered ceasefire without Ukraine recognizing any Russian annexations de jure. But even this option, viewed as a pause, is staunchly opposed by Kyiv on fears that it would give Putin time to reboot his beleaguered army before attacking again.
Martin Fornusek
Kursk incursion strengthening Ukraine's position
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Zelensky's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, said on Telegram on Aug. 16 that the Kursk incursion could allow Ukraine to conduct potential peace talks from a position of strength.
“We absolutely do not plan to plead: 'Please, sit down to negotiate.' Instead, there are proven, effective means of coercion," he said.
Continuing in his social media posts, Podolyak said that "we need to inflict significant tactical defeats on Russia" and that "negative changes in the psychological state of the Russian population will be another argument for starting negotiations."
"In Kursk Oblast, we can clearly see how a military tool is being objectively used to persuade Russia to enter a fair negotiation process," he said.
"Another important tool is the influence on public opinion within Russia, which begins to change when the war reaches deep into their territory. The fact is that, until recently, the citizens of the aggressor country largely remained indifferent to the hostilities, as they were taking place in Ukraine," he added.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, an advisor in Zelensky’s administration and president of the Kyiv School of Economics, said the Kursk incursion had dealt a blow to Putin's idea that any peace agreement should take into account the facts on the ground – as well as the notion that Russia will not leave or can’t be forced out of Ukrainian territory it has seized.
"Any negotiations now have to respect realities on the ground, which means part of Russia becomes Ukraine, if we follow Putin’s formula," Mylovanov said in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Fesenko said the Kursk incursion "fits into the logic of strengthening Ukraine's negotiating position," adding that Ukraine's effort to strengthen its hand in potential talks would work only if "Ukraine keeps its foothold in Kursk Oblast.”
One of the potential ways to exploit the Kursk incursion, according to Fesenko, would be to exchange the territory controlled by Ukraine in Kursk Oblast for the territory in northern Kharkiv Oblast that Russia seized in May.
"The goal is to shift the fighting to Russian territory and use it for military and political pressure," Fesenko said. "This will force (the Kremlin) to start negotiations not on Russia's terms but on more equal ones. In Kursk Oblast we are forcing Russia to abandon ultimatums."
Oleksiy Haran, a professor of comparative politics at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy, was more cautious, saying that "it's too early to tell whether the Kursk operation will be a bargaining chip."
"It's important to make Russians redirect reserves (from the Donbas to Kursk Oblast)," he told the Kyiv Independent.
Specifically, successful strikes on Russia and Russian-occupied territories with drones and missiles, as well as efforts to destroy Russian logistics in Crimea would strengthen Ukraine's hand in possible talks, Haran added.
Mylovanov said that "Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure hurt, and hurt enough so that they are willing to negotiate." His comments refer to reported talks mediated by Qatar, in which both sides allegedly discussed halting strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure.
"It also proves, again, that Russia understands force, not diplomacy," Mylovanov said. "So, for the war to end, Ukraine has to achieve enough leverage so that Russia will find it optimal to stop. And the invasion in Kursk is doing just that."
Mylovanov told the Kyiv Independent that "more successful attacks" on Russia, better arms production, "stronger mission planning" and "attacks on (Russia's) energy infrastructure" could further strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position. Psychological operations, attacks on critical industries, and hacking attacks on Russia could also be helpful, he added.
Intermediaries step in
Efforts by intermediaries to facilitate talks between Ukraine and Russia continue but with no success so far.
The latest to step in is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is scheduled to visit Kyiv on Aug. 23.
Modi said on Aug. 21 that he would “share perspectives” on the peaceful resolution of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia during his visit.
“As a friend and partner, we hope for an early return of peace and stability in the region,” he said.
India's sudden interest in mediation efforts between Ukraine and Russia comes weeks after Modi was heavily criticized in the West for visiting Moscow on July 8, when a deadly Russian missile attack killed at least 41 civilians in Ukraine and hit a children's hospital in Kyiv.
China, a geopolitical rival of India, also appears to be seeking a bigger role in potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang is currently visiting Russia following a visit to China by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on July 23-25.
The Washington Post reported on Aug. 17 that Ukraine and Russia were also set to send delegations to Qatar this month to negotiate a partial ceasefire halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides. The newspaper cited diplomats and officials familiar with the talks.
The deal was mediated by Qataris meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, according to the sources.
However, the talks were derailed by Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast, they said.
Efforts by China, India and Qatar follow Zelensky's announcement in July that he would hold a second peace summit this year with Russia invited for the first time, an offer the Kremlin has balked at.
A source close to Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent that the Ukrainian authorities are aiming to prepare the ground this fall for potential negotiations with Russia.
Ukraine seeks to "begin talking to Russia" and hold negotiations on an all-for-all prisoner exchange, food security, and nuclear security, the source said.
'Everything hinges' on US election
Ukraine’s efforts to prepare the ground for talks come ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election in the U.S, Kyiv’s top Western ally and source of weaponry and financial bailouts.
Trump said in 2023 that, if elected president again, he would ask Zelensky and Putin to make a peace deal.
Trump also said he would warn Putin that the U.S. would increase military support for Ukraine if an agreement is not reached. Meanwhile, two Trump advisors have proposed a plan that would cease military aid to Ukraine unless it agrees to hold peace negotiations with Russia, Reuters reported on June 25.
In June Trump vowed to end the war between the Nov. 5 election and his inauguration in January if he is elected.
Fesenko said that, if Trump is elected, he could appoint a mediator and try to prepare the ground for potential talks in November to December.
In this scenario, official talks are unlikely to start before January-February 2025, he said.
If Trump's Democratic opponent Kamala Harris wins, she is expected to continue incumbent President Joe Biden's Ukraine policies.
Reno Domenico, head of Democrats Abroad in Ukraine, told the Kyiv Independent that Harris' continued or even increased support for Ukraine will likely enable Kyiv eventually to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength.
"If Ukraine still maintains fighting and if Trump loses, Russia will have no choice but to recalibrate and look for some exit ramp," he said. “Everything hinges on what happens in the election.”
Can there be a compromise with Russia?
If Trump intends to achieve a compromise between Ukraine and Russia, he is likely to be disappointed.
Analysts believe that Putin is unlikely to make concessions to Ukraine and would only accept Ukraine's capitulation and surrender of territory.
"I see no prospect and no 'potential' for peaceful negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the West," Russian columnist Sergei Parkhomenko told the Kyiv Independent. "Putin's regime does not need peace. He will want to achieve concessions, that’s true. He will also want to present it as a victory. And then the war will continue as if nothing happened."
He argued that these would not be "peace negotiations" from Putin's perspective but "negotiations about Ukraine's concessions" that have nothing to do with peace.
A political analyst based in Russia, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to fear of reprisals, told the Kyiv Independent that his views on the probability of a compromise have shifted lately.
The analyst has previously believed that Putin could make some concessions and achieve a compromise with Ukraine. But after a series of recent statements by Putin, he thinks that Putin's uncompromising stance makes any meaningful peace deal impossible.
"Putin issues ultimatums and absurd demands, which proves that he's not willing to conduct negotiations," he said. "Putin seems to have lost touch with reality."
Putin said in June that, as a condition for peace negotiations, Ukrainian troops must leave the country’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. He added that Ukraine must recognize Russia's illegal annexation of those regions and abandon any ambition to join the NATO military alliance.
Fesenko also believes that Russia will not agree to return any territories grabbed from Ukraine.
At the same time, it would be politically impossible for Zelensky or any other Ukrainian president to cede any Ukrainian territory de jure, Fesenko said. The country's Constitution bans ceding Ukrainian territory.
Moreover, a significant part of society would accuse Zelensky of being a traitor in such a case, Fesenko added.
"A compromise (with Putin) is impossible," he said.
Probability of a ceasefire
Fesenko believes that a Korean-style ceasefire is a more likely scenario than a permanent peace deal that would change the current borders de jure.
In this scenario, Ukraine would not recognize any of the occupied territories as Russian, and Russia would not cancel the annexation of any of the territories, he said.
Fesenko also argued that Ukraine is more interested in a pause in the war than Russia because the war is causing more damage to Ukraine.
Ukrainian columnist Vitaly Portnikov, who has regularly covered the topic of potential peace talks in his op-eds and on his blog, told the Kyiv Independent that currently he sees no preconditions for a ceasefire. Peace talks and a ceasefire will only be possible "when Russia is exhausted," he added.
But Domenico, of the Democrats Abroad, thinks that a ceasefire would be only a temporary reprieve, and the war will likely resume after that.
"Ukraine could make some concessions but it's temporary," he said. "Russia wants all of Ukraine. Unless Russians are driven out of Ukraine's contiguous territory, it will remain a temporary condition."
Oleg Sukhov
