Fact-check: Moscow internet outages spark coup rumors — experts say it's 'wishful thinking'
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Speculations about coups and rebellions in Russia have been constant throughout the full-scale war. All of them, except one, were wishful thinking.
The latest rumor shared by British tabloids suggests that recent internet outages in Moscow were triggered by fears of an "imminent" coup by figures close to Sergei Shoigu, a senior security official and former defense minister.
The claim originates with the VChK-OGPU channel, known for sharing stories it says are leaked from Russian security services. The channel itself acknowledges it is merely a "conspiracy theory" from an undisclosed source.
Russia experts speaking to the Kyiv Independent have flatly dismissed the rumors.
"This is pure BS. If Russian elites wanted (Russian President Vladimir) Putin out, it would have happened in 2022," Anton Barbashin, co-founder and editorial director at Riddle Russia, told the Kyiv Independent.
Stephen Hall, assistant professor in Russian and post-Soviet politics at the University of Bath, says that while Russian history is unpredictable, a coup is "unlikely as of today."
Shoigu the plotter?
The cornerstone of the theory published by VChK-OGPU is that recent internet outages in Moscow coincided with the arrest of Former Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, Shoigu's long-term associate.
Tsalikov, facing corruption-related charges, is the fourth former deputy defense minister to face indictment since Shoigu was dismissed as defense minister in May 2024.
According to the VChK-OGPU, the Kremlin feared that Shoigu's clan would make a move in response to his ex-deputy's arrest.
The theory suggests it is no coincidence that the internet outages impacted key government and security facilities, as Shoigu allegedly still "retains considerable influence" at the Defense Ministry and security services.
Users in Moscow and St Petersburg reported major mobile internet outages in recent days. The Kremlin said the restrictions — increasingly common amid the war — are designed to "ensure security," without providing details.
Shoigu, meanwhile, has served as the secretary of the security council since 2024, an honorary title without much financial or infrastructural leverage, according to analysts.
Barbashin says he does not see a brewing plot within Shoigu's circle.
"Putin allowed to dismantle Shoigu's clan while giving (him) immunity, just like it happened before with Medvedev's clan," the expert said, referring to former President Dmitry Medvedev. "No coup is on the horizon."
Hall questions whether there is even a significant player left in Shoigu's circle who would lead such a coup.
"The Shoigu clan has certainly been decimated since he was dismissed as defense minister," the expert said.
Wishful thinking
Since Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, speculations about his imminent fall or demise have emerged periodically, often optimistically shared by Ukraine's supporters.
The Russian leader has been rumored to suffer from cancer, Parkinson's disease, or to have already died and been replaced by a double.
Even Kyrylo Budanov, then-Ukrainian military intelligence chief, fueled similar rumors by declaring in 2022 that a coup to remove "seriously ill" Putin is already underway.
Roman Osadchuk, director of Threat Intelligence at the LetsData tech company, says that any rumors of coups or political events from Russia should be taken with a grain of salt.
According to the expert, the popularity of such claims is often fueled by curiosity about the inner workings of Russia's opaque, closed-off political system.
Authors may disseminate such claims for mere engagement farming, Osadchuk told the Kyiv Independent.
"Opacity does contribute to the speculative nature of commentary on regime change, but in this particular instance, there may be an element of 'wishful thinking,'" Tomila Lankina, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Many of us working on Russian politics have been hoping for a change of regime for years, if not decades."
Throughout four years of the full-scale war, no palace coup has been executed, as Russian elites obediently fell in line.
The closest was Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group rebellion in June 2023 — ultimately aborted after one day before reaching Moscow. Prigozhin then died under suspicious circumstances in a plane crash two months later.
Editor's note: This article was published as part of the Fighting Against Conspiracy and Trolls (FACT) project, an independent, non-partisan hub launched in mid-2025 under the umbrella of the EU Digital Media Observatory (EDMO). Click here to follow the latest stories from our hub on disinformation.
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