Belarus schedules next presidential election for January 2025.
Belarus reportedly shoots down the second Russian drone amid ongoing incursions into its airspace.
The EU supports Poland’s migration plan, including suspended right to asylum amid the continued artificial migration crisis at the Belarus border.
Russia’s ambassador claims Moscow would help Minsk quash ‘attempts to destabilize’ the country in the upcoming 2025 presidential elections.
Belarus detains journalist Ihar Ilyash, husband of imprisoned reporter Katsiaryna Bakhvalava, who stayed in the country despite looming threat.
Viasna claims 26 former political prisoners in Belarus face trials in October, with their sentences increased, reflecting a troubling trend of escalating political repression.
Belarus schedules next presidential election for January 2025
Belarus has scheduled its next presidential election for Jan. 26, 2025, the country’s Central Electoral Commission announced on Oct. 23. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is widely expected to hold on to power following the election's result.
Lukashenko, the country's leader since 1994 and Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest ally, has long been accused of staging fraudulent elections in Belarus.
In 2020, during the last presidential election, Lukashenko maintained power despite the country's most prominent opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, receiving popular support — claiming she won with 60 per cent of the vote.
Following the fabricated results, mass protest erupted in Minsk but were ultimately quelled with the support of Russia. According to the Belarusian human rights group Viasna, over 50,000 citizens have been detained for political reasons since the 2020 election.
When asked on Oct. 23 about Maria Kalesnikava, one of the leaders of the country's opposition movment kept in prison since Sept. 8, 2020, Lukashenko said she needs to ask for an official pardon.
On Nov. 28, 2022, Kalesnikava was admitted to intensive care after suffering severe health issues. She has since been returned to serve her sentence in a penal colony.
She is reportedly denied correspondence with her family and friends, and other inmates are prohibited from speaking with her. There have been almost no information on Kalesnikava's wellbeing since February 2023.
Maria Yeryoma
Belarus downs Russian drone amid daily incursions
Belarusian Air Defense Forces shot down a Russian Shahed-type drone over Yelsk in the southern region of Homiel on Oct. 20, the Belarusian Hajun war monitoring project has reported.
As Russia has stepped up its drone attacks on Ukraine over the last month, incursions of Russian combat drones into the country are becoming an almost daily occurrence, with Ukraine reportedly using electronic warfare measures to send the drones off course.
According to the monitoring group, at least three drones entered Belarusian airspace overnight on Oct. 20. One, entering at 12:30 a.m. local time, returned to Ukraine after flying over a narrow strip of south-eastern Belarus that reaches down almost to the Kyiv Sea reservoir in Ukraine.
Another drone entered Belarus from Ukraine’s Zhytomyr Oblast and headed toward the town of Mazyr, where there is an oil refinery. Aircraft were scrambled to intercept the drone at around 1 a.m. near the town of Yelsk, south of Mazyr in Homiel Oblast, where residents reported hearing sounds of explosions. Belarusian officials have not confirmed the downing.
On that night, the Ukrainian army reported downing 31 of the 51 attack drones launched in Russia. It said two drones veered off course to Belarus.
Shahed-type drone incursions into Belarus have been reported almost daily in the past week, except for Oct. 18-19, when drones were spotted in Ukraine heading for Belarus but failed to reach its territory. Fighters were repeatedly scrambled to intercept the UAVs.
The latest incident is the second time Belarus has downed a drone that entered its airspace. Belarus’s military first confirmed the downing of a drone over its territory on Sept. 5. Another drone crashed on Oct. 3 in Kalinkavichy, and a witness of the incident, a woman, was arrested.
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko claimed on Oct. 4 that the Belarusian Air Force downs “a lot of drones,” both Russian and Ukrainian, and attributed the incursions to the work of radio-electronic warfare equipment and mistakes by drone operators.
No proof of Ukrainian drones entering Belarusian airspace has ever been presented.
Russian Shahed-type drones started routinely flying into Belarus in July this year. The Belarusian Hajun project reports spotting 27 UAVs in September alone.
Russia’s staunchest ally, Minsk, has never publicly raised objections to Moscow over the reported drone incidents.
Martin Fornusek
EU backs Poland’s asylum ban in response to artificial migration crisis at border with Belarus
The European Commission has supported Poland's controversial policy of suspending the right to asylum for illegal migrants that are sent into the country by Belarus and Russia to create tensions on the European Union’s eastern borders.
“Russia and Belarus, or any other country, cannot be allowed to abuse our values, including the right to asylum, and to undermine our democracies,” reads a statement from the 27 EU leaders following a meeting in Brussels on Oct. 17.
The statement also supports Poland’s recent migration program, which includes temporarily suspending the right to asylum. “Exceptional situations require appropriate measures,” the statement reads.
The Polish government on Oct. 15 approved Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s program to tighten migration policies and suspend the right to asylum, sparking an outcry among human rights groups and criticism from political opponents and some of Tusk’s own coalition members.
Polish President Andrzej Duda, in an address to the Polish parliament, argued against the decision, saying it might impede the chances of dissidents from Belarus and Russia receiving asylum.
“Let’s put it bluntly: Putin and Lukashenko are trying to destabilize the situation on our border, in the EU, and your response to this is to deprive the people Putin and Lukashenko put in prison and persecute of safe haven,” Duda said in response to Tusk’s plan. “I think this is some kind of fatal mistake.”
Tusk, however, said the measure would not affect dissidents.
The EU’s backing is a win for Tusk, who has been seeking to receive European approval for suspending asylum rights should “a threat of the destabilization of the state through an influx of migrants” occur.
Poland has long accused Belarus and Russia of waging a “hybrid war,” encouraging waves of illegal migrants from Africa and the Middle East to try and cross the borders into the EU in order to put pressure on the country. Belarus denies the accusation.
According to the Polish Defense Ministry, Poland stopped 26,000 illegal border crossing attempts in 2024 alone. One soldier was killed in a clash with migrants, and 63 sustained injuries.
Belarus unleashed an artificial migration crisis in 2021 in response to the sanctions imposed on the Lukashenko’s regime. Poland’s officials link the more recent waves to the Kremlin, however, as the incoming migrants tend to have Russian visas.
Maria Yeryoma
Moscow to help Lukashenko quell disorder during 2025 presidential elections, Russian ambassador says
Russia’s Ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, has said Moscow will assist Minsk if there are “attempts to destabilize the situation” during the 2025 presidential elections in Belarus, Russian state-affiliated news outlet RIA Novosti reported on Oct. 22.
“There is no reason to believe that the Belarusian law enforcers and special services will need additional assistance, as they say, ‘on the ground,’” Gryzlov said in an interview with RIA Novosti. “But if necessary, Russia, within the framework of its obligations, will certainly provide (any) assistance and support that our closest ally and strategic partner asks of us.”
Gryzlov also accused “Western states” of planning to interfere in the domestic affairs of Belarus and Russia, and claimed that Russia and Belarus had exchanged intelligence regarding the “potential threats.”
The Belarusian Central Election Commission on Oct. 23 announced that the next presidential elections will be held in Belarus on Jan. 26, 2025.
Longtime Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has made contradicting statements regarding his plans to “run for election.” However, with all political parties eliminated in the country, apart from four that are loyal to the regime, and all opposition leaders jailed or exiled, no other realistic challengers to Lukashenko for the presidency are in sight.
In 2020, Lukashenko claimed to have won by a landslide, sparking nationwide protests eventually crushed by the regime. The regime began to crackdown on any form of dissent, with the Viasna Human Rights organization reports at least 1,300 political prisoners are currently behind bars, and over 6,000 face charges in politically motivated criminal cases.
Belarus detains journalist Ihar Ilyash, husband of jailed reporter
Belarusian police have detained Ihar Ilyash, a Belarusian journalist, co-author of the book “Belarusian Donbas,” and the husband of another journalist already jailed for eight years on treason charges.
The Belarusian Interior Ministry announced the arrest in a video posted on Oct. 22 on a pro-government channel. In the video, Ilyash confesses to “giving interviews to various media resources, including those that have been declared to be ‘extremist’ in Belarus.”
Although the official reason for the arrest was not clearly stated, the captions to the video say it is in connection with “aiding extremist activities” and “gathering information for foreign intelligence services.”
Ilyash, formerly a journalist for the Polish-funded satellite TV channel Belsat, is a freelance writer and political analyst for several online news outlets. With his wife, journalist Katsiaryna Bakhvalava, he co-authored the book Belarusian Donbas, which documents Belarus’ involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine since 2014. Published in Kyiv in 2020, the book was slapped with an “extremist” label in Belarus in March 2021.
Despite apparent risks of persecution, Ilyash stayed in Belarus to be close to his arrested wife. Bakhvalava, a correspondent for Belsat, was among the first journalists jailed for livestreaming the nationwide protests in 2020. Having almost served out her initial two-year sentence, she was given an additional eight years in prison.
Among the nearly 1,300 political prisoners in Belarus, there are 39 journalists and five media workers, Reporters Without Borders says. The country scored 167 out of 180 on the World Press Freedom Index 2024 and was labeled Europe’s most dangerous country for journalists before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Viasna: Courts threaten to increase punishments for house-arrested convicts in politically motivated cases
At least 26 former Belarusian political prisoners are facing fresh trials in October that could see their sentences become harsher – increased from house arrest to imprisonment in penal colonies – according to the Viasna Human Rights Center.
Between June and September, Viasna recorded 15 trials in which a punishment of house arrest for people convicted in politically motivated cases was replaced with imprisonment. The organization says this is a growing trend.
Since the start of the ongoing crackdown on the opposition after the 2020 presidential elections, 1,507 Belarusians have been charged in politically motivated cases and placed under house arrest, a punishment that doesn’t meet international criteria for recognizing them as political prisoners, but places them under the strict daily control of the state.
House arrest includes a curfew, restricting individuals mainly to their home and workplace, with about two hours allowed for commuting. Convicts must check in at police stations weekly, and law enforcement can conduct home visits at any time of the day or night. Missing a check or returning home late can lead to harsher penalties, including prison time.
Primarily, Belarusians are sentenced to house arrest for “gross violations of public order” or insulting Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and other officials. While the plight of the country’s 1,300 political prisoners has been recognized internationally, the Lukashenko regime also employs less visible forms of punishment to silence dissidents.
Introducing official
merch from the Kyiv Independent
