In 2024, Belarus, under dictator Alexander Lukashenko, continued to descend into totalitarianism, imprisoning people at will and providing full-fledged support to Russia in its brutal all-out war.
Lukashenko signed a number of bilateral treaties with Russia's Vladimir Putin, helping him facilitate the major East-West prisoner swap that saw spies and murderers return safely to Russia. Lukashenko also reignited a major migrant crisis at the country's western borders, effectively making it harder for people to leave the state.
Here is the round-up of key events that happened in Belarus in 2024.
Lukashenko further solidifies military allegiance to Russia
2024 ends with the Russian and Belarusian dictators, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, signing a security treaty after Russia amended its nuclear doctrine to include Belarus under its nuclear umbrella. The amended doctrine also lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. While the treaty’s text was not released, Putin said it outlined mutual defense obligations, including nuclear capabilities, and experts suggest it may allow Russia to set up bases in Belarus and deepen Belarusian involvement in the war.
Putin also said that the treaty provides for the protection of each other’s constitutional order, a notable remark after Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov promised Moscow would help Lukashenko quell any potential disorder during the 2025 presidential elections.
Following the signing, Lukashenko requested Russia to station Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) in Belarus, just as he did with the nuclear weapons in 2023. Putin agreed but postponed any such move to the second half of 2025.
The year saw another attempt of nuclear blackmail by Russia — with Belarus in a supporting role. In May, the Belarusian Defense Ministry conducted snap inspections of tactical nuclear weapons launchers, which, while capable of carrying nuclear warheads, also double as conventional weapons, once again providing no confirmation that any Russian nuclear weapons are present in Belarus. The next major joint military drills on Belarusian soil are scheduled for September 2025.
The NATO Summit declaration warned early in 2024 that the deepening Russia-Belarus military integration destabilizes the region.
Tensions rose and fell throughout the summer on the Belarus-Ukraine border, as Minsk accused Ukraine of military buildups in late June, while Kyiv claimed Belarus concentrated forces near the border in August following Ukraine’s operation to capture parts of Russia's Kursk Oblast.
Lukashenko also provided Putin with a helping hand during POW exchanges this year. In June, he released five Ukrainians who had been jailed in Belarus on politically motivated charges in exchange for Metropolitan Jonathan of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate.
In August, German citizen Rico Krieger, sentenced in Belarus to capital punishment for allegedly planning an act of terrorism, was released as a part of a swap that returned Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov from prison in Germany. No Belarus opposition figures were released as part of the exchange.
At least 19 other foreign nationals remain behind bars in Belarus. They might be used in future prisoner swaps.
Meanwhile, Belarus is growing more and more dependent on Russia economically. Relying on reduced oil prices, Russian loans and Russian markets for Belarusian exports, Lukashenko has had to deepen integration with Russia.
Following Trump’s electoral victory, the official Minsk actively seeked a seat at the negotiations table between Russia and Ukraine and security guarantees for itself. Political analysts said the moves are prompted by Lukashenko’s desire to restore his international legitimacy, but also by his wish for a counterbalance to his dependence on Russia.
Russian combat-drone incursions became an everyday reality in Belarus
Open-source intelligence project Belarusian Hajun reported 356 Russian drone violations of Belarusian airspace between July and Dec. 18. The count keeps rising, undermining Lukashenko’s earlier promise of a “peaceful sky.”
From July, the incursions began to rise sharply, peaking in November with 38 stray drones recorded in Belarusian airspace in one night. One combat UAV crashed without causing casualties but leading to the arrest of a witness. The Belarusian military reportedly downed drones only twice.
The drones, targeting Ukraine, cross from Russia and are reportedly diverted by Ukrainian electronic warfare. Minsk has largely ignored Russian incursions and never publicly objected. Lukashenko, meanwhile, accused Ukraine of provocations, claiming it was Kyiv that had sent drones into Belarus.
Paula Erizanu
Iron Curtain continues to descend on Belarus’s western borders
As Russia and Belarus continued to send migrants across the border into the European Union, bordering states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — announced the Baltic Defense Line in January. Meanwhile, Poland launched its 2.5-billion “Shield East” to bolster its borders with Belarus and Russia with anti-drone surveillance and fortifications on the ground.
Lithuania is also investing $1.1 billion in a military base close to the Lithuania-Belarus border to house up to 4,000 combat-ready German troops — the first deployment of German troops abroad since World War II.
Russia-aligned Hungary remains the only EU state maintaining ties with Belarus. Its Foreign Affairs Minister Peter Szijarto visited Minsk in 2024, calling for sanctions to be lifted. Hungary also relaxed its migration legislation to allow Belarusians and Russians to work and live in the country, raising EU concerns.
Meanwhile, the EU pledged 170 million euros to fortify the union’s borders as Belarus and Russia escalated their “hybrid warfare” by channeling migrants with Russian visas into the union.
Katie Marie Davies
Following the killing of a Polish soldier patrolling the border in May, Polish authorities reinstated a 200-meter-deep buffer zone along the country’s border and pledged about $375 million to modernize its 190-kilometer border fence with Russia and Belarus, erected in 2021.
Poland also sought Chinese intervention in the crisis, citing complications for international trade under the Chinese Belt and Road initiative — an overland trade route to Europe involving Belarus.
While these measures have temporarily slowed the pace of the crisis, they haven’t resolved it: In 2024, Poland reported thwarting 30,000 illegal border crossing attempts. The cross-border crisis reportedly took 59 lives between January and October 2024.
In the wake of the migrant crisis, the U.S. State Department designated Belarus as a state sponsor of human trafficking.
The standoff between the eastern EU member states and Belarus is a setback for democratically leaning Belarusians abroad and within the country. Out of 14 border crossings between the EU and Belarus, only five remained in operation, after Lithuania shut down two more in March. Leaving Belarus now takes hundreds of dollars in visa fees and hours, sometimes days, to cross the border via one of the remaining checkpoints.
Furthermore, Lithuania has tightened restrictions on Belarusian migrants, citing security concerns, leading to a decline in the number of Belarusian residents for the first time in four years. Latvia has banned Belarus-registered vehicles on its territory.
Lukashenko gears up for seventh term as president, no sign he will ever step down
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko spent much of 2024 preparing to extend his 30-year streak in power with a seventh consecutive term as president.
In February, Belarus held tightly controlled parliamentary and local elections. The voting, condemned by the West and dismissed as a farce by the country’s opposition, was viewed as a dress rehearsal for the presidential race, the first since the sham presidential vote in 2020 caused widespread public protests.
Following rigged parliamentary elections, the All-Belarus People’s Assembly convened for the first time in a new capacity as the extra-governmental body. Despite its grand name, the body is increasingly viewed as a "decor" for the Lukashenko regime — presenting the illusion of distributed power, while Lukashenko remains in sole control as the country's dictator.
The latest presidential elections are scheduled for Jan. 26, 2025, nearly half a year earlier than is stipulated in Belarusian election law. The Belarusian Central Election Committee (CEC) announced on Dec. 23 that the incumbent, the heads of three loyalist parties — Aleh Haidukevich, Alexander Hizhnyak, Siarhei Syrankou — as well as a spoiler candidate, representing so-called “constructive opposition,” Hanna Kanapatskaya, would be allowed to run.
The campaign takes place in a sterilized political environment with raging repressions. All but four political parties have been liquidated, and those that remain are loyal to the regime. Independent media have been dissolved or forced into exile, and branded “extremists.” The only remaining point of discussion now, political analysts say, is what percentage the Election Committee will “allocate” to Lukashenko on Jan. 26, 2025.
Having no winning strategy, between calling for boycotting the election and voting against all candidates, Belarus’s exiled opposition has focused on campaigning internationally for the non-recognition of the sham election’s results.
As the election date nears, Belarusian law enforcers have intensified intimidation, arresting and harassing dissidents. Belarusian authorities have also partially blocked YouTube and VPN services during major opposition events throughout the year, and Lukashenko admitted he would not shy away from shutting down the Internet completely if unrest arises during the vote.
Kate Tsurkan
Despite pardons, the situation with political prisoners in Belarus remains dire
In 2024, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko began to pardon political opponents, sparking speculation about his motives — which ranged from seeking sanctions relief and restoring relations with the West, to election strategy.
The gesture did not imply any political reconciliation, as over 220 jailed Belarusians received political prisoner status over the same time. As I write this roundup, 1,294 officially recognized political prisoners remain behind bars, with the actual number likely much higher due to the authorities’ obstruction to reporting by human rights groups.
Three prisoners — Ihar Lednik, Aliaksandr Kulinich, and Dmitry Shletgauer — have died in custody, bringing the total number of deaths of political prisoners since 2020 to seven. Eight high-profile prisoners, including 2020 presidential candidates Viktar Babaryka and Siarhei Tsikhanouski, the long-time opposition politician Mikalai Statkevich, and RFE/RL journalist Ihar Losik, have been held incommunicado for over a year now.
Solidarity efforts in support of the prisoners and their families have been criminalized.
Throughout the year, police raids also targeted diaspora groups, exiled journalists’ homes, and political activists in and out of the country.
2024 was the darkest and most repressive year for the Belarusian media, with the number of jailed journalists jumped from 32 to 45. Journalists are facing in absentia trials and repeated convictions, the Viasna Human Rights Center notes. Reporters Without Borders placed Belarus 167th out of 180 in its annual Press Freedom ranking, and among the world’s four biggest jailers of journalists in 2024.
Belarus hunts down exiled opponents
Foreign countries are no safe haven for the opponents of the regime of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
A former member of the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, a volunteer unit fighting for Ukraine, was extradited to Belarus from Vietnam in December, facing charges that could lead to his execution.
Meanwhile, Belarusian activist Andrei Hniot narrowly escaped extradition from Serbia at the request of the Belarusian office of Interpol. He was incarcerated for over a year. Detentions at Belarus’s request also occurred in Armenia, but didn’t lead to extraditions due to a political conflict between the two countries. Sweden announced it would reexamine asylum applications from Belarusians after a Belarus citizen was extradited to Belarus and reportedly imprisoned soon after.
Over 3,000 Belarusian activists, politicians, and journalists were added to Russia’s wanted lists. Russia and Belarus also created joint lists of “extremists,” which are used to persecute opponents of the authorities.
Opponents physically out of reach of Lukashenko’s regime are subjected to in absentia trials. At least 112 Belarusian politicians and activists have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms and seizure of property without ever setting foot in a courtroom to defend themselves.
Lukashenko may face ICC arrest warrant following Lithuania’s request to court
Lithuania has asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko's alleged crimes against humanity, including mass deportation and persecution.
Following the 2020 election, a regime crackdown forced over 300,000 Belarusians out of the country of 9.5 million. The Lithuanian authorities believe this might constitute a crime of mass deportation and have requested that the ICC hold Lukashenko accountable.
While the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan has confirmed the referral by Lithuania, no other countries have joined the effort — unlike in the ICC case against Russian President Vladimir Putin, against whom an arrest warrant was issued in 2023.
Kate Tsurkan
