OSCE observers not invited to monitor upcoming presidential election in Belarus.
Belarus to host over 13,000 Russian troops for Zapad-2025 joint military drills with Russia.
Belarus sentences EU diplomatic staffer to four years in prison.
Irregular crossings into EU from eastern borders more than triple in 2024, Frontex reports.
Belarusian state TV airs a propaganda film with jailed journalists, attempting to discredit their coverage of 2020 elections ahead of upcoming vote.
Belarusian opposition announced it will issue “New Belarus” passports, yet legal uncertainty remains for exiles.
Belarus refuses to invite OSCE observers to upcoming election
Minsk has not invited observers from the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions to monitor the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, the OSCE announced on Jan. 9.
The presidential elections, which are expected to provide Belarus’s longtime dictator Alexander Lukashenko with a seventh term in office, are scheduled for Jan. 26. The poll, dismissed as a “sham” by the Belarusian opposition, will be the first presidential race since the 2020 election — which sparked an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests and an ongoing domestic political crisis.
The OSCE said Belarus’ decision not to invite its member states via the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) was “regrettable” and “deprives the country’s citizens of a transparent and full assessment of the entire process.”
“The lack of transparency further undermines faith in the electoral system of Belarus,” said OSCE PA President Pia Kauma.
This is the third time the office will be unable to observe elections in Belarus since the contested 2020 vote — it was not invited to observe the 2022 constitutional referendum or parliamentary elections.
Speaking at a meeting with the chairs of regional executive committees on Jan. 3, Lukashenko mentioned the idea of inviting international observers, saying, “We should meet with the Central Commission once again and decide whether we will invite these foreigners (Western observers) to the elections.”
However, Lukashenko raised the issue less than three weeks before the elections, with the key stages of the campaign — the nomination of candidates, the formation of local electoral committees, and the selection of national observers — already having been carried out.
The rushed presidential election campaign is being held nearly half a year earlier than is stipulated in Belarus’s election law. The Belarusian Central Election Committee (CEC) cleared the heads of three loyalist parties — Aleh Haidukevich, Alexander Hizhnyak, and Siarhei Syrankou — along with another sham candidate representing the so-called “constructive opposition” — Hanna Kanapatskaya — to “challenge” Lukashenko for the presidency.
As of Jan. 8, the Belarusian Central Electoral Committee (CEC) had accredited 362 foreign observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (PA CSTO) — all Russia-led international alliances favoring the Lukashenko regime.
Among the 28,330 national observers, 79% come from political parties or pro-government professional unions, the independent news outlet Pozirk reports. Since 2020, Lukashenko has eliminated all but four loyal political parties and liquidated over 1,800 civil society organizations.
The expert observation mission organized by the Viasna Human Rights Center and the Belarusian Helsinki Committee claims that the electoral campaign is organized in a “repressive climate of threat, fear-mongering, pressure, and persecution in connection with any civil activity unauthorized by the state.”
Oleg Sukhov
Minsk expects 13,000 Russian troops to take part in joint military drills in 2025
Over 13,000 Russian troops will participate in the Zapad-2025 joint military exercise, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced on Jan. 10, citing Major General Valery Revenka.
Military allies Russia and Belarus have been conducting the Zapad (“West” in Russian) strategic drills every two years since 2009. Approximately 12,800 Russian soldiers were hosted in Belarus in 2021. Another military drill, “Union Resolve 2022,” followed the Zapad-2021, and was used to disguise a troop buildup on the Ukrainian border ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022.
In an interview with a state-owned TV channel, Major General Revenka said that Belarus has already notified OSCE member states about the drills in line with the Vienna Document, extending an invitation to “allies, friends, partners” to observe the exercises.
According to Revenka, Belarus “views positively” only some EU and NATO member countries — without specifying which ones. Noting that Belarus had not been invited to observe European military drills last year, Revenka said that a decision regarding an invitation to NATO members remained to be taken.
The date of the Zapad-2025 drills has not officially been announced, but they are believed to be scheduled for September 2025. In October 2024, the Belarusian Air Force announced “major drills with Russia in September 2025,” right after a meeting of the joint board of the Belarusian and Russian Defense Ministries approved a concept plan for the Zapad-2025 joint strategic exercise.
The Vienna Document on security and confidence-building requires its members to provide notification 42 days or more prior to holding military drills.
Aside from Zapad-2025, Belarus plans to host three military drills — Search, Interaction, and Echelon — along with members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-led bloc Moscow set up in 2002, over a decade after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact.
While not committing Belarusian troops to Russia’s war on Ukraine, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory as a jumping off point for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, provided supplies to the Russian army, and offered to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
EU diplomatic staffer in Belarus sentenced to 4 years in prison
Minsk City Court has handed down a four-year prison sentence to a local staff member of the European Union’s diplomatic service in Belarus, Politico reported on Jan. 9.
The sentence, issued in late December 2024, has only now been made public. The court found the EU staffer, Mikalai Khilo, guilty of “incitement of hatred and calls for actions harming Belarus’s national security.”
The EU’s External Action Service condemned the decision and reiterated calls for Khilo to be released.
“We continue calling for Mikalai Khilo’s immediate and unconditional release,” EU spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Anitta Hipper said in a statement shared with Politico.
The EU diplomatic service previously called for Khilo’s release ahead of his trial, which was held on Dec. 23. At the time, a Lithuanian member of the European Parliament, Petras Auštrevičius, told Politico that Minsk was “testing the EU” by arresting its employee. He said Belarusian diplomats should be expelled from the EU if Khilo was convicted.
Forty-one-year-old Khilo split his time between working for the EU diplomatic mission and serving as a preacher in a local Baptist church, as confirmed by CV (formerly known as Christian Vision) — an international Christian ministry that monitors the repression of clergy and religious groups.
According to an unnamed EU official, Khilo was detained by the Belarusian KGB security service in front of the EU delegation office on April 24, 2024. The Viasna Human Rights Center, a human rights organization based in Belarus, recognizes Khilo as a political prisoner.
Although there have recently been eight rounds of pardons of political prisoners in Belarus, 1,240 political prisoners remain behind bars in the country. According to CV, 86 clergymen from various confessions are behind bars because of their public support for anti-government protests in 2020.
Kate Tsurkan
EU border agency: Irregular crossings of eastern border more than tripled in 2024
The number of detected cases of migrants irregularly entering the European Union through its eastern borders more than tripled in 2024, to 17,000, the European border agency Frontex said in a report on Jan. 14.
Following the introduction of European sanctions in 2021 over the contested 2020 presidential election and crackdown on dissent, the regime of Lukashenko orchestrated an artificial migration crisis, allowing migrants from the Middle East and African to storm Belarus-EU borders.
Frontex preliminary data show that while the overall number of irregular border crossings to the European Union declined by 38% (returning to the post-pandemic level of 2021), the eastern border route (including Belarus and Ukraine) bucked the general trend: There were 17,000 illegal crossings of the bloc’s eastern border out of a total of 239,000 crossings recorded in Europe last year.
In 2021, the EU recorded 8,000 illegal crossings of its eastern border, in what Frontex monitoring described as a “hybrid operation targeting the EU external border.” Following an initial settlement that led to a decline in the registered irregular border crossings to 5,608 in 2023, the artificial migration crisis reignited again, with Russia joining the effort.
In late 2024, the EU authorities revealed that 90% of the migrants arriving via Belarus had Russian student or travel visas. The bloc pledged 170 million euros to its eastern members — Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Estonia, and Finland — and to Norway to fortify their borders.
As “hybrid warfare” involving migrants continues, the border security agencies of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have thwarted a total of 36,291 attempts to illegally cross their borders from Belarus in 2024.
In 2024, Poland reimposed a 200-meter-wide buffer zone next to its border with Belarus, and considered temporarily suspending the right to asylum.
Belarusian state TV shows jailed journalists ahead of 2025 vote
The Belarusian state-owned TV channel ONT aired on Jan. 14 the first segment of propaganda interviews with journalists held in Belarusian prisons, in an apparent attempt to discredit the work of independent media during the 2020 presidential elections.
In the aftermath of the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus, widely viewed as neither free nor fair, the free media field in Belarus was eradicated. Thirty-seven journalists remain behind bars on politically motivated charges, and hundreds were forced into exile. In 2024 alone, 35 independent media were branded as “extremist” and banned in Belarus.
The first part of the series “about employees of American Media,” was filmed in prisons, yet is titled “Freedom of Speech.” RFE/RL’s Belarus Service freelancer and political prisoner Andrey Kuznechyk, who was charged with six years of imprisonment for allegedly “creating and participating in an extremist formation.”
In the interview, Kuznechyk appears in a black robe in the prison yard, looking emaciated. The interviewer urges him to condemn the independent media in Belarus for biased coverage and “trying to set Belarus on fire” during the 2020 elections.
The program is airing ahead of the Jan. 26 presidential elections, the first presidential vote since the contested 2020 race, which is expected to provide Lukashenko with a seventh consecutive term in office. After winning the country’s first and last fair election in 1994, Lukashenko remained in power for 30 years, gradually giving up parts of Belarusian sovereignty to Russia.
Other segments are to feature RFE/RL Belarus Service journalist Ihar Losik, who has been held incommunicado for nearly two years, as well as former reporter Ihar Karney and opposition activist Yuras Zyankovich, who hold dual citizenship of Belarus and the United States.
The international press freedom watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) placed Belarus 167th out of 180 countries in its 2024 Press Freedom Index, calling the country the fourth largest jailer of journalists in the world, and Europe's most dangerous country for journalists up until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Belarusian opposition announces issuing ‘New Belarus’ passports
Political opponents of the regime of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko will start accepting applications for the alternative identity documents for exiled Belarusians on Jan. 26, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has announced on her Telegram channel.
In September 2023, Lukashenko barred Belarusian embassies from issuing or renewing passports of Belarusians living abroad, forcing the regime’s critics to return to Belarus — risking arrest — to renew their essential documents. As a result of Lukashenko’s move, over 300,000 exiles who have fled Belarus since the contested 2020 elections risk finding themselves in legal limbo, unable to prove their identity, renew residence permits, or access essential services in host countries with expired passports.
In response, the Belarusian opposition in exile announced the “New Belarus” passport project in 2023, but there was little progress on it in 2024. After a change of leadership of the project and a scandal involving the Lithuanian contractor for producing the passports — which was found to have ties with the Lukashenko regime — the opposition has since produced the first prototypes of the passport.
However, the new document has yet to be recognized as suitable for travel or as official proof of identity, and it will initially be available only to EU-based Belarusians due to verification constraints, according to project head Marius Gudelaitis.
Franak Viachorka, a chief advisor to Tsikhanouskaya, said that the passports will have “specific functionality” within a year.
“Our goal is that this document can replace a foreign passport, be used for travel, and also replace expired (Belarusian) passports when submitting documents for legalization, for example,” Viachorka told news outlet Zerkalo.
However, the former head of the passport project, Valery Kavaleuski, who earlier resigned from Tsikhanouskaya’s Transitional Cabinet, has warned that gaining recognition for the document under present conditions is unlikely. According to Kavaleuski, the issuing center has had to undergo an independent audit before issuing the documents. Besides, the passport will reportedly use a new country code, instead of the existing Belarusian one, which Kavaleuski described as a "dead end" for the recognition process.
The passport will be presented to the public at the “Belarusians Deserve Better” congress in Warsaw, Poland on Jan. 26 – the same day as Lukashenko's latest presidential election, which has been dismissed as a sham by the Belarusian opposition. Meanwhile, Belarusian prosecutors have already issued warnings that congress participants could face criminal prosecution.
Kate Tsurkan
