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Andreas Umland

Dr. Andreas Umland is an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. Umland is also an Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.

Articles

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin shake hands during a meeting at the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany, on July 7, 2017.

Do US-Russia talks on Ukraine mark a reappearance of colonial power play?

by Andreas Umland
The unexpected negotiations between the United States and the Russian Federation that began in Saudi Arabia in February were strange. These off-line discussions in Riyadh, which included foreign ministers and presidential advisors from both countries, focused primarily on the fate of Ukraine and the future of European security. Yet, neither Ukraine nor the European Union, nor any of its member states, were present or in any other way involved in these purely bilateral face-to-face meetings. Oth
Vladimir Putin meets Kim Jong-un upon his invitation in Pyongyang, North Korea on June 18, 2024.

How North Korea’s role in Russia’s war undermines the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

The nuclear dimension has been a key aspect of the Russo-Ukrainian War since its onset in February 2014. Behavior in this war, not just of Moscow and Kyiv but of other states as well, has been conditioned by Russia’s possession and Ukraine’s lack of weapons of mass destruction. Russia holds the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear warheads, while Ukraine has no weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Since 2014, Moscow has repeatedly reminded the world of its destructive nuclear power. In November 202

Is Putinism fascism by another name?

by Andreas Umland
The term “fascism” is increasingly used to describe the agenda and actions of the current Russian state under Russian President Vladimir Putin. Today’s use of this label has three dimensions: It is a historical analogy to interpret present events, an expression of Ukraine's lived experience, and a scholarly classification enabling comparisons with other regimes. Understanding these perspectives sheds light on the ideological and practical dynamics behind Putinism and its impact on Ukraine and be
A Russian soldier on March 16, 2022, in Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 12, 202

Why the West misunderstood Russia’s initial assault on Ukraine

On July 17, 2014, the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH-17, a commercial plane flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, shocked the world. The crash claimed the lives of all 298 passengers and crew, including 80 children. It marked a significant escalation in Russia’s war against Ukraine that had been unfolding since early 2014. However, this tragic incident was just one of many in a turbulent year that also saw Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its covert invasion of Ukraine's Donbas region
Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during his speech at the meeting in Moscow, Russia

Opinion: Is Russia’s new nuclear doctrine a game of bluff or a shift in strategy?

by Andreas Umland
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a seemingly significant modification of Russia’s military doctrine in a statement on Sept. 25. He revealed that the new doctrine would propose considering aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, “with the participation or support of a nuclear state,” as a “joint attack” on Russia. Putin’s message to the West is clear: If you help Ukraine militarily, we may also target you. The Russian president further explained that the new doctrine will “cl

Opinion: 6 ways Ukraine’s Kursk incursion is changing the tide of war

by Andreas Umland
As becomes clearer with each passing day, the Ukrainian foray into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which began on Aug. 6, is no minor incident. Kyiv’s unexpected operation on Russian territory could fundamentally change the character of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Ukraine’s attack represents a novel development in a least six ways. First, Ukraine’s Kursk incursion is a large-scale military offensive being carried out by Ukraine’s official military, unlike previous infantry raids into Russian territory

Opinion: Were the Istanbul peace talks a missed opportunity for Ukraine?

by Andreas Umland
Recent reflections on the Russo-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022 offer new insights and perspectives. However, they often overlook a crucial factor: Moscow’s dismal history of honoring political and security agreements with former Soviet republics. Many analyses naively assume the Kremlin would adhere to any signed deal, ignoring Russia’s well-documented pattern of broken promises. Over the past 35 years, Russia has repeatedly demonstrated a disr

Opinion: 6 obstacles to peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia

by Andreas Umland
There is consensus among observers of Russia’s war against Ukraine that it should end as soon as possible. Most Ukrainians couldn’t agree more. Today, one suspects, many Russians would also not mind ceasing the carnage. Why, then, is there still not – and likely will not be any time soon – a negotiated finale to the war? Pushing for a negotiated ceasefire of some durability, not to mention sustainable peace, between Ukraine and Russia at this moment in time is futile. Following this strategy wo

Opinion: Will Putin unite Europe?

by Andreas Umland
Russia’s war against Ukraine and the political turmoil that has since enveloped Europe indicate a need for more than a cosmetic change to improving the European Union’s relations with its non-EU neighbors. Brussels’ earlier approaches have proven insufficient to lessen the tensions in Eastern Europe that led to war. Russia’s ongoing war too calls for novel approaches to save Ukraine from annihilation and the European Security Order from destruction. There are already several transnational struc

Opinion: How Russia’s succession problem makes its future uncertain

by Andreas Umland
In 2023, several domestic developments in Russia, such as the summer mercenary mutiny by Yegveny Prigozhin or the autumn antisemitic riots in Makhachkala, indicated growing regime fragility. These and an accumulation of foreign policy challenges have renewed discussion of what happens to Putin’s system of rule after the current president leaves his post, for whatever reason. The regime’s problem might not be that it has no successor to Putin, but that there are many pretenders who would like hi

Opinion: Russia’s ‘most dangerous philosopher’ Dugin is overrated

by Andreas Umland
One of the favorite protagonists in journalistic investigations of deeper sources of Moscow’s recent foreign policies is the flamboyant Russian idealogue Alexander Dugin. Equipped with a long beard, sonorous voice, and extroverted personality, Dugin is a telegenic speaker who easily checks the box of an archetypical Russian philosopher. He can be different things to his various audiences – a modern Dostoevsky, a right-wing Trotsky, an Orthodox monk, a second Rasputin, or an alternative Tolstoy.

Andreas Umland: Why no-fly zones over Ukraine are necessary

by Andreas Umland
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has increasing repercussions beyond Eastern Europe – political, economic, social, legal, and humanitarian. Against this background, it is worth revisiting the full-scale war’s earliest and most urgent Ukrainian request for direct Western military support. Shortly after the start of Russia’s massive invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, Kyiv launched an international campaign asking to provide Ukraine’s entire territory with a no-fly zone. While empathizing with Ukraini

Andreas Umland: Should Kyiv be pressured to exchange land for peace?

by Andreas Umland
Both Kyiv and the West want a full and stable truce with Moscow – sooner rather than later. Why and how Ukrainian national interest currently contradicts a ceasefire with Russia is clear: Kyiv’s problem in negotiating with Moscow is that an agreement with the Kremlin now will not lead to the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It will also not protect Ukraine from continuing Russian imperialism and anti-Ukrainianism. According to most Ukrainians and other Eastern Europeans, ta

Andreas Umland: How Russian ultra-nationalists undermine Putin’s narratives

by Andreas Umland
During his recent mutiny, Russian mercenary leader and leading imperialist mouthpiece Yevgeny Prigozhin questioned the Kremlin’s propaganda line to justify Russia's war on Ukraine. His critique follows an earlier pattern of illuminating statements by Russian ultra-nationalists about Putin's regime. Known until recently only among Eastern Europe experts, Yevgeny Prigozhin (b. 1961), the head of the Kremlin-affiliated private military company Wagner Group, has become world famous. Prigozhin’s onl

Andreas Umland: Why Russia and Ukraine will not find a compromise soon

by Andreas Umland
Editor’s Note: This article is based on a series of four reports currently produced by the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. As Russia’s aggression against Ukraine continues, there are more and more calls for a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv by self-proclaimed pacifists and/or pragmatists.